I looked forward to celebrating in the start of this picks article, privy to the knowledge that the Denver Broncos won’t be playing football in primetime. Then I checked the schedule. Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night. The Chicago Bears visit the New England Patriots on Monday. May we cherish Sunday’s afternoon slate and place some bets to keep us entertained.
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.*
Who is covering in the early afternoon games?
I’m hesitant to take a big Tampa Bay Buccaneers favorite after they burned me last week. Tom Brady looks rather mediocre and the defense looks flat. Covering 13 points is no easy task. However, the Carolina Panthers suck. That’s it! They suck. They just traded away Christian McCaffrey, there is no hope at quarterback, and the end result is an offense so poor it negates a half-decent defense. Carolina is 1-5 against the spread this season. One bad Buccaneers loss is troubling, but if they look bad again, we should be sounding some serious alarms.
The Pick: Buccaneers -13 (-110)
The Green Bay Packers were supposed to use their games against the New York Jets and Giants to right the ship. Instead, there are more holes than previously thought, and the ship is sinking quickly. A turnaround starts with Aaron Rodgers and significant improvement from the five guys in front of him. Enough is enough. Expect something to give, especially against an organization on the perpetual downturn, instead of on the rise.
The Pick: Packers -4 (-110)
Truthfully, these two teams seem evenly matched this far into the season. The Tennessee Titans are a little better than I anticipated, and the Indianapolis Colts are a little worse. They get Jonathan Taylor back this week, and Matt Ryan is coming off his best game of the year, which certainly helps. However, Tennessee is coming off a bye and is at home. I’m not sure the Colts’ average run defense will be able to contain Derrick Henry.
The Pick: Titans -2.5 (-110), Over 41.5 (-110)
The Atlanta Falcons are undefeated against the spread this season. They’re much better than the dumpster fire I deemed them to be prior to the season. Atlanta is running the ball with authority and continues to play good opponents well. Expect that trend to continue against a Cincinnati Bengals team that’s prone to underperformance.
The Pick: Falcons +6.5 (-110)
This game might not feature a pass attempt. These are the two best rushing teams in football. At least the Baltimore Ravens pretend to play run defense. This game should be close most of the way, but Baltimore is too talented to not expose this porous Cleveland Browns defense. Lamar Jackson’s arm should win them this game, even if his legs make the headlines.
The Pick: Ravens -6.5 (-110), Nick Chubb to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+420)
The game of the week for the 1 p.m. slate would be unheard of a year ago. As much as I’m excited to watch, I’m not so tempted to bet. The Jacksonville Jaguars started out hot but have fallen flat in recent weeks. The Giants aren’t very good, and the predictive metrics despise them, but they just keep winning. Can Trevor Lawrence make the big throws under pressure? It might be the difference in an otherwise tightly-contested game. I’ll ride with New York until this divine intervention of a hot streak cools off.
The Pick: Giants +3 (-105)
Dak. Is. Back. Prescott and the Cowboys host a Detroit Lions team that has seen its vibes quickly deteriorate. They’re still a legitimate threat to cover from behind, but I’m not sure I see the path this week. Dallas’ defense is awesome and is salivating against a limited passer like Jared Goff. Detroit’s defense, on the other hand, is one of the worst units I’ve watched in some time. Prescott and co. should have their way with ease on Sunday.
The Pick: Cowboys -7 (-110), Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to Score (+520)
Who will cover in the late afternoon slate?
The Las Vegas Raiders will win this game, it’s just a matter of by how much. Coming off a bye, there’s been time for Las Vegas to fix some glaring issues. The Houston Texans aren’t a fun team to be favored against, but there’s a reason they are a constant underdog. Josh Jacobs should eat, and rookies Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre have their work cut out for them. The talent disparity is substantial, trust it.
The Pick: Raiders -7 (-110), Josh Jacobs to Score (-160), Dameon Pierce to Score (+105)
I tend to think of myself as one of the more realistic Jets fans out there. I’m infused with the pessimism misery instills, but am not hesitant to hand out praise when it’s deserved. With that said, I’ve never been so confident in a Jets win. Russell Wilson is out and the locker room seems as tight knit as that blanket you’ve kept since your infancy…for some reason. As long as Denver’s stout defense doesn’t cause a Zach Wilson implosion, New York will take care of business.
The Pick: Jets -2 (-110)
One of the more intriguing matchups of the afternoon comes in Los Angeles, where the Chargers play host to the Seattle Seahawks. Justin Herbert presents a quarterback advantage, but with Geno Smith’s play and the neutering Joe Lombardi has done to the LA offense, how much will it matter? Seattle’s defense isn’t great, but they have Tariq Woolen to shadow Mike Williams and an easy assignment outside of that (thanks, Lombardi). Both teams should run the ball well. I struggle to see this game getting out of hand.
The Pick: Seahawks +5 (-110)
We have got to stop forgetting who Patrick Mahomes is. The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by a single point over the San Francisco 49ers. Sure, San Francisco is healthier than they were last week. Maybe they’re rejuvenated by the McCaffrey acquisition. We’re still talking about a team that can go blow-for-blow with the Buffalo Bills. Chiefs -1 is the smallest that will be this week.
The Pick: Chiefs -1 (-110)
Surviving the primetime games
Our Sunday Night Football lullaby has the redeeming quality of at least one explosive offense. Both teams are hovering around .500 against the spread this year, and while I expect Miami to take this one, covering a touchdown scares me. How will Tua Tagovailoa look? I’m not totally sure the first three weeks of the season weren’t a fluke.
The Pick: Steelers +7.5 (-110)
I’m picking New England to finish off the week not because of their own strengths, but because of Chicago’s weaknesses. Rhamondre Stevenson is better than you think he is, and Bailey Zappe might be too, but neither are the story of Monday’s contest. Justin Fields might not make it out of this game alive. Bill Belichick is to young quarterbacks what meteors were to dinosaurs. This one won’t be pretty.
The Pick: Patriots -7.5 (-110)
BASIC TIPS
This article features a plethora of against the spread (ATS) bets. This means a team must cover the spread in order to be successful. If a team is favored (say, Patriots -7.5) then their final score, minus seven and a half, must be higher than Chicago’s. On the other hand, the Bears’ score, plus seven and a half, must be higher than New England’s. These odds are typically around -110, meaning an $100 bet would net $90.91 in profit. ATS bets are meant to be 50/50 shots, so make sure you have an edge before placing.