By Nick Brinkerhoff
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Player spends one year at Duke and will be a first round pick in the NBA Draft. A.J. Griffin is no exception as he is expected to be the second Duke player off the board on Thursday night behind Paolo Banchero. They are two of four players that will most likely hear their names called in the first round, three of which may end up in the top 15.
Background: Another five star recruit that opted to attend Duke, Griffin didn’t see much action early in his freshman year, due to a knee injury. It was just one of multiple lower body injuries that may have made life difficult during year one in Durham. While teams may have concerns about that, they won’t take issue with his lethal three point shooting and that potential he flashed, especially toward the end of Duke’s season. The 6-6, 220 pound forward ended up starting 25 of the 39 games Duke played. He averaged 10.4 points and 24 minutes per game, shooting 49% from the field and 45% from three point range.
Strengths: Griffin’s outside shooting ability is his calling card at the NBA level. Combining that with his incredible size will make any team fall in love with this winger. Throughout the NBA playoffs we saw just how important versatile wingers are in the current state of the league, and Griffin will be no exception. He boasts a seven foot wingspan and imposing strength, which should make him an average NBA defender at worst. His shooting form is one that is almost impossible to contest, along with a wide base that invites defenders to foul him on the perimeter. It’s a rare combination that will make Griffin a coveted player on Thursday night, especially since he’s an 18-year-old, who will turn 19 in August.
Weaknesses: The issues with Griffin are mostly due to his lack of foot speed. He often settles for jumpers, since he doesn’t have the burst to blow by defenders, making his offensive game more predictable than most. Teams can sell out, trying to contest his lethal shot knowing that he won’t be able to exploit the defensive breakdowns. That lack of speed can also end up being a problem defensively at times, as Griffin will tend to rely on his size and length. Quicker NBA players may be able to bait Griffin into foul trouble by exploiting that key weakness. There is some belief out there that the lower body injuries since high school are what plagued Griffin in the speed and quickness department, something that may change at the next level as he is further removed and recovered from those problems. It’ll be interesting to see whether NBA training and performance staffs can restore some of that confidence in his athleticism.
Prediction: A.J. Griffin has the tools to be a very successful NBA player, especially on a future championship team. With wingers being so coveted, he will certainly be in high demand. However, for Griffin to find success early in his career, he will require a team that doesn’t need him to be a playmaker. With that in mind, I see Griffin as a player that falls outside the top 10, as a potential player the Knicks or Cavaliers might select. Both teams have other players who operate with the ball in their hands more, allowing Griffin to thrive in an off-ball role. For the sake of discussion, I think Griffin ends up in Cleveland as they need help on the wing, and will add the 6-6 forward to an already massive team. Imagine a front court of the 6-6 Griffin, the 6-11 Evan Mobley, and the 6-11 Jarrett Allen. Good luck.