D'Andre SwiftDeAndre HopkinsElijah MooreJosh JacobsNFL Week 8

Nick’s Picks NFL Week 8: Longshot TD Parlay is more treat than trick

Welcome to Halloween weekend, which is typically a defining point in the NFL season. As we head into No-Shave November, some people will continue wearing their werewolf costumes for at least another month. NFL teams, on the other hand, will separate themselves from the pack, as some will continue the race toward the playoffs, while others occupy their time with mock drafts and visions of playing January football. 

Luckily for us, we’ve successfully defined our season as well. We’ve been profitable on our weekly picks against the spread, as well as the weekly Thursday Night Football same game parlays. However, we’ve yet to cash in on the Longshot TD Parlay of the Week, which means we are overdue for that now. I’ve taken plenty of time and after careful consideration, losing is not an option this week. With all four touchdown picks in the early window, we’ll be knocking on DraftKings door by 4:30 P.M. eastern time, but instead of candy, they’ll be handing out some serious cash. As always, happy betting, and please play responsibly. 

 

 

Josh Jacobs (LV) -130

Our touchdown parlays have been plagued by some brutal luck and missed opportunities. That’s the reason we’ll get our action in early this week, to try and avoid some of these lines getting away from us. Davante Adams appears to be in line to play for the Raiders on Sunday, but there is concern over his status thanks to the flu. Now if Adams was looking to be festive, he’d arrive in New Orleans dressed up as Michael Jordan and put on his best “Flu Game” impression, but we’ll have to wait and see. Adams is someone that almost made the parlay, but his uncertainty left him out for this week. The -110 price on DraftKings is enticing, but we’ll stick with the -130 for Josh Jacobs

Now that we’ve successfully buried the lead, Jacobs has scored six, yes that’s right, touchdowns over his last three games. Remarkable right? It’s no coincidence that since Jacobs started getting a bigger workload, that the Raiders offense has begun to find itself and the team has gotten into the win column two of the last three games. He’s about as close to a guarantee as you’ll get around the goal line, in terms of opportunity, and the Saints have been generous at times to running backs, having surrendered two touchdowns to Cardinals‘ running backs in Week 7. 

D’Andre Swift (DET) -120

Welcome back D’Andre Swift. After missing three games, the Lions will be thrilled to have him in the lineup after being non-competitive in two of those contests without him. He’s had the benefit of running behind one of the best offensive lines in football and it’s apparent in Swift’s output this season compared to his career numbers. Although a small sample size, he is averaging 8.6 yards per carry, which is up from his career number of 4.7. The Dolphins have given up touchdowns to opposing running backs in three of their last four games, for a grand total of five during that span. Expect Dan Campbell’s team to try and put away the Cowardly Lion costumes this week. 

DeAndre Hopkins (AZ) +125

This was a tricky pick to make. On one hand, you want to get the Cardinals rushing attack into the parlay because they are determined to run the ball. However, do you bet Eno Benjamin or Kyler Murray? Decisions, decisions. So our decision was to avoid the backfield entirely and pick DeAndre Hopkins instead. He might have a different way to spell his first name than Swift, but we can assure you that D’Andre/DeAndre squared is great for this parlay. In two career matchups against the Vikings, Hopkins has found the end zone both times. We know he’s a huge part of this Arizona offense, receiving a whopping 14 targets in his return to the lineup. They couldn’t get him a touchdown last week, but you should bet they’ll get it done in Minnesota on Sunday. 

Elijah Moore (NYJ) +340

Here’s a narrative play because the stats, at least this season, won’t be too kind to this bet. One week ago Elijah Moore requested a trade, but the Jets were adamant about trading him. One week later and Moore is one of the only Jets left standing on the offensive side of the ball. Maybe his request was just a way to avoid playing on those haunted grounds that claimed multiple teammates in Denver. If so, that’s one brilliant business decision on his part. Despite not playing in Week 7, Moore is still fifth on the team in snaps, with 343 on the season. He’s on the field, but just not seeing the ball. The team suggested they could move Moore to the slot and rookie Garrett Wilson outside in an effort to spark a struggling passing attack. 

Moore’s move to the slot will allow him to work over the middle of the field more often where he thrives, while also opening the door to some potential end-arounds or other rushing opportunities. This is important considering he scored a touchdown on an end-around against the Patriots last season. New England will try to take away the Jets run game on Sunday, so they’ll have to get creative while also throwing the ball more than they’ve done in recent weeks. Moore will certainly get plenty of targets as the team tries to repair its relationship with their young receiver, making +340 too good of a number to pass up. 

Parlay +3111

This week’s longshot parlay pays +3111, meaning a $100 bet wins another $3,111, a very nice payout considering the players we opted for in Week 8. All four of these players will have big roles on Sunday so we have an excellent chance of taking home this big payout, enabling us to buy all of the 50% off Halloween candy from your favorite retailer this week. 

Basic Tips

A parlay is when you are combining different outcomes for a larger payout. In order to win the money, all four of these listed outcomes need to occur. If Jacobs does not score a touchdown, but the others do, the bet will lose.

author
Nick Brinkerhoff
Sports Journalist
Hello there, I’m Nick Brinkerhoff, a New Jersey native with enough sarcasm and attitude to show I’m not from New York. Despite being Jersey born and bred, I’m a diehard New York sports fan (Jets, Nets, Rangers, Mets) who has seen plenty of losing, but my sports betting ability will hopefully continue to balance those scales. I have season tickets to the Jets but believe it to be more character building than bad asset management. Althoug
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