Over the course of the past few seasons, the NBA’s Most Improved Player award has figured itself out rather quickly. Mere months ago, Ja Morant went nuclear and cemented himself amongst the league’s best point guards. The year prior, Julius Randle’s ascension from disdained veteran to playoff-caliber power forward made him an easy bet to place.
At the All-Star break, the 2023 Most Improved Player race is too close to call. Where do things currently stand?
Who are the best candidates for Most Improved Player?
Anthony Edwards was the pre-season favorite to win the award, but it has developed into a three-man race; without the likes of the uber-athletic scorer.
The Utah Jazz’ hot start was fueled by Lauri Markkanen. His boost in offensive production, currently sitting at 24.9 points, 8.6 boards, and 1.8 assists per game, led them to a 10-3 opening chapter.
Since, they are 19-28. Markkanen has been fantastic, posting the 15th-highest WAR (per 538), but he’s lost the hype battle. Nobody actually watches the Jazz, so when less-than noticeable stretches of play occur, eyes divert elsewhere.
Elsewhere happened to be Oklahoma City. Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has exploded this season, at times lapping Markkanen for the top spot. FanDuel currently has the two sharing +135 odds for the honor.
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Gilgeous-Alexander’s team is also struggling, sitting a half-game behind Utah. Still, his ascendance into the league’s elite has been fascinating. He’s dropping 30 a night while racking up more than 7 wins above replacement. His usage rate (31.7%) is eighth in basketball. His percentage of his team’s points (34.7) and fouls drawn (45.4) both rank fourth in the NBA.
He IS the Thunder and he’s showing it every night.
Our final candidate is New York Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson. He’s led the Knicks to a scorching streak that’s put them in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs (-400). Brunson has been on fire as of late. He’s led the Knicks in scoring the last three games, all wins, and in seven of their last 10.
Simply put, he’s opened up the door for Randle All-Star self to return. He’s carried the burden of the offense, drawn enough attention to himself, and bailed out others for their mistakes. Now with Villanova sidekick Josh Hart added to the fold, the Knicks look even better. Shutting up the critics that called him overpaid this summer has landed him in third place, with +350 odds. That line, if successful, would net $350 on a $100 bet.
Brunson is on a clear trajectory, one which may include a crash course with the odds of those above him. Can he keep it up?
Who is the best bet to win the NBA MIP award?
Of our narrow field, one star emerges. Gilgeous-Alexander is far and away the best player of the three, and while it’s not a measure of who’s most valuable, it may sway voters in his favor.
The gaudy scoring numbers are nice, and he’ll also have the argument of carrying his team the most. Neither remaining candidate has as big of a gap between co-stars as Oklahoma City.
Perhaps most importantly, his line has stayed steadiest the longest. He wasn’t the favorite or the first jump up the boards, but he established himself months ago as the guy. The odds have been less volatile for SGA than Markkanen.
The latter is dealing with the inevitable disappointment that comes with an unsustainable start to the year. Markkanen has continued to play well, admirably handling his team’s descent and thus keeping his odds for MIP close to the top. Since losing his “lead” earlier in the season, Markkanen has returned, but not surpassed, SGA’s line. With both teams on similar tracks, I see this one ending in Gilgeous-Alexander’s favor.
Unfortunately for Brunson, I don’t see him truly threatening for the top spot. So much has gone right in recent weeks to get him this far. But he’s not in front yet, and this play likely won’t last forever. Are voters asking him to improve? To sustain the 32 ppg pace he’s set since his recent one-game absence? Whatever the books demand from New York’s best point guard will likely be too tall of a task unless Markkanen and Gilgeous-Alexander also see declines in performance.
He has the hype, he has the scoring, he has the prestige, and he has the consistency. The Thunder superstar should have your vote as the best bet to win the Most Improved Player award.
BASIC TIPS
This article features futures bets, which are wagers placed on distant events like championships, award presentations, and drafts. By offering inflated odds for the price of increased risk, futures are an entertaining way to wager. The key to futures is timing. Too early and you risk random variance and randomness sinking your ship. Too late and better value will have passed you by.