Our bank accounts may be reeling from Black Friday shopping, but #NFLWeek13 offers us a chance at making holiday shopping hurt our wallets a little less. With Christmas just three weeks from Sunday, the clock is ticking for some end-of-year bets to hit. Who can we trust to bring us some holiday cheer this week? 🎄
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated.*
Who’s covering in the early slate?
As the weather gets colder, teams will rely more on the ground game. The consecutive car crashes between the trenches begin to add up, and throwing the rock around is harder to trust with heavy gusts of wind. The conditions may not take over when the Tennessee Titans visit the Philadelphia Eagles, but Derrick Henry definitely should. Philly has had trouble stopping the run all year, specifically in their four-man fronts. Tennessee has never been shy when it comes to running the ball, and against a vulnerable Eagles defense, Henry will have the opportunity to steal the day.
The Pick: Titans +4.5 (-110), Derrick Henry Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Look, the impending doom that is New York Jets quarterbacking is as inevitable as the next rainstorm. It may not come tomorrow, but we all know it’s coming. In the meantime, I’m riding the White Lightning ⚡️ for as long as possible. The Minnesota Vikings’ defense extends New York’s window another week. Of course, early slate Kirk Cousins will be a hassle. If Sauce Gardner can live up to the hype, he can certify himself as a legitimate No. 1 corner and keep this game close.
The Pick: Jets +3 (-115)
Can Kenny Pickett keep it up? Few teams offer a better opportunity to double a one-game win streak. The Atlanta Falcons’ offensive tendencies should keep this one low scoring, taking some of the offensive pressure off of Pickett. Their defense ranks 28th against the pass, too. Assuming he plays, T.J. Watt is the X-Factor the Pittsburgh Steelers need to keep their own defense potent. I like them to take advantage of Atlanta’s passive offense.
The Pick: Steelers Pick ‘Em (-110)
In recent weeks, the Washington Commanders have been lucky enough to run into a favorable formula: facing teams who’s greatest strength are mitigated by their own. The New York Giants run through Saquon Barkley thanks to a muted passing attack. I don’t think he’ll find success against Washington’s elite run defense. As long as Taylor Heinicke doesn’t self-destruct, they should be fine.
The Pick: Commanders -2 (-110)
Why do I keep betting on the Denver Broncos? I suppose I’m a glutton for punishment. However, the Baltimore Ravens are, too. Despite leading seemingly every minute of every game, they’ve managed to fall short four times. They are no stranger to playing down to competition. As far as the Broncos have fallen, the line has fallen, too.
The Pick: Broncos +9.5 (-110)
I don’t have a great reason as to why this line is this slow. They are more talented, better coached (at least on offense), and now have a massive quarterback advantage. Deshaun Watson is back, regrettably so, and is a lot better than Davis Mills. Expect it to show, and if it doesn’t, their Nick Chubb insurance will.
The Pick: Browns -7 (-110)
As I’ve said many times this season, the Detroit Lions are built to cover from behind, not from ahead. For more on covering against the spread, make sure to check the Basic Tips section below. Alas, the Lions have found themselves in front of Trevor Lawrence, whose emergence was certified with a huge fourth quarter last week. Lawrence has the chance to show last week wasn’t a fluke and prove himself with Jacksonville’s fifth win.
The Pick: Jaguars +1 (-115), Trevor Lawrence Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-117)
Aaron Rodgers is licking his chops looking at this Chicago Bears defense. In the wake of trades and injuries, this Bears defense is atrocious. Just look at what happened in #NFLWeek12. Rodgers owns Chicago. Against a horrific defense and a motivation to stifle Jordan Love’s momentum, expect him to take care of business. If you want in on that action, be sure to use Caesars promotion for BetBasics readers: GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK UP TO $1,000.
The Pick: Packers -3 (-120), Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-108)
Who is winning the late afternoon games?
Continuing our #NFLbetting adventure means taking a look at the first of two epic games in the late afternoon slate. The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals may be the two best teams in the AFC. The Bengals offense is running as efficiently as ever while the Chiefs continue their seemingly inevitable stroll to the conference game. Joe Burrow has a knack for winning these kinds of games, and even if his proclivity didn’t extend to a Super Bowl 🏆, it reigns supreme in the regular season.
The Pick: Bengals +2 (-110), Bengals Moneyline (+115)
Our second game of the week has the potential to be critical in teaching the league how to attack each of these teams. The Miami Dolphins offense has been an unsolvable puzzle through 12 weeks, at least when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. San Francisco, on the other hand, has been incredibly stingy on defense and has avoided catastrophe at quarterback. I just don’t have an answer as to how you stop Miami, and until I see one I’ll take my chances with them.
The Pick: Dolphins +4 (-110)
Holy hell, the Los Angeles Rams are atrocious. The entire team is hurt, the offense is offensive, and Sean McVay’s future commentating contract looks a little sweeter by the day. Staying competitive in the NFC playoff picture demands a win out of the Seattle Seahawks. The run game should get back on track, and business should be handled with minimal bumps in the road.
The Pick: Seahawks -7 (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers are more talented than the Las Vegas Raiders. They have the better quarterback. It may be questionable, but their coaching seems better, too. It simply won’t matter when Josh Jacobs runs for eight million yards and a few touchdowns. This is an unstoppable force against a very movable object and if not for Justin Herbert, the spread would be double-digits.
The Pick: Raiders -1 (-110), Josh Jacobs Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (-103)
What are the best bets for the primetime games?
The NFL is making us watch the Indianapolis Colts play on national television. Again. The Dallas Cowboys will win this game. Winning by 10.5 is certainly more difficult. Still, if your defense is getting dotted up by Pickett and the Steelers, Dallas shouldn’t have much of an issue. They should run away with this one, literally. 🏇
The Pick: Cowboys -10.5 (-110)
So, the New Orleans Saints offense has gotten worse since their 20-10 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As much as I’d like to say the Bucs got better…they haven’t; which is why the spread is so low. Still, I can’t help but feel like getting back to .500 and virtually eliminating the Saints from playoff contention isn’t inevitable. At the end of the day, it’s still Tom Brady and Andy Dalton we’re talking about.
The Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 (-110)
BASIC TIPS
The term “cover” is used when describing how a team wins an Against the Spread (ATS) bet. The favorite in these bets is designated with a (-) and must win by at least the amount of points provided. For example, the Bucs must win by more than three. On the other hand, the underdog is designated with a (+). If the underdog wins the game or loses by less than the specified amount, they will have covered, and if you had bet on them, won you money.