The best things in life are worth waiting for, right? As #NFLWeek15 continues, we’ve got a three game slate on Saturday to hold us off until Sunday’s main course. Despite only four divisional games ahead of us, each matchup holds a unique impact on the playoff picture. Who should we put our trust in this week?
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated.*
Who should cover on Saturday?
Starting our Saturday is Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings, and if Vegas is any indicator, chaos should reign. We know Minnesota is the better team. They are 10-3 with a -1 point differential. Indianapolis is 4-8-1; their differential is 88 points worse. The Vikings at home! Yet, only a 3.5-point spread separates the two. It won’t be pretty, but I’m taking the team with the talent advantage virtually across the board.
The Pick: Vikings -3.5 (-110)
This season feels lost for the Cleveland Browns, doesn’t it? Jacoby Brissett filled in admirably at quarterback, but ultimately wasn’t enough to cover up for a shameful defense. Now, Deshaun Watson has regretfully returned and gone 1-1 in his pursuit to shake the rust off. There’s still a road to the playoffs, technically, but we all know it’s not happening. Baltimore, however, still has an AFC North title to play for, even if Tyler Huntley is manning the ship. A win gives them about a 80% chance of winning the division and a Cincinnati Bengals loss makes it a near certainty. I think they do their part.
The Pick: Ravens +3 (-120)
Punch. Counterpunch. It’s how the NFL works and how the war of attrition plays out late in the year. The Miami Dolphins took the league by storm early in the year, but have been punched in the mouth the last two weeks. It’s their chance to punch back, but the Buffalo Bills are no punching bag. A win all but seals the division, and they’ve got a weather advantage turned up to the highest degree ❄️. I’m not sure how Miami’s offense will look in those conditions, but I know the Bills have Josh Allen, and that’s enough for me to trust their offense.
The Pick: Bills -7 (-110), Josh Allen to Score a Touchdown (+145)
Who is covering in the early slate?
Best team in football. Worst team in football. The extra half-point on the 14.5-point spread is a nuisance, but I’m comfortable with this one being over before the second quarter is complete. The Kansas City Chiefs should have a field day on the ground as they simply hope to leave healthy. For more on covering spreads, check the Basic Tips section below this article.
The Pick: Chiefs -14.5 (-110)
You can just about copy the last paragraph and paste it here. The Chicago Bears have one of the worst non-quarterback rosters in the sport. The Philadelphia Eagles have prompted discussions about whether their MVP-caliber quarterback should be given credit or the incredible supporting cast put around him. I’m trusting the talent on this one. If you’re with me, be sure to use Caesars’ promotion for Bet Basics readers: GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK UP TO $1,000.
The Pick: Eagles -9 (-110)
Which quarterback breaks first, the hot Jared Goff facing an elite New York Jets defense or Zach Wilson, out for revenge against a suspect Detroit Lions squad? The Jets are playing for a playoff spot, which means something bad is about to happen 😔. I just can’t trust them yet, especially against a team as hot as Detroit. If their offensive line can win the day, this one could unravel quickly.
The Pick: Lions +1 (-110), Zach Wilson Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (+106)
The Desmond Ridder era has begun in Atlanta. Unfortunately, he’s going up against a New Orleans Saints secondary that has an extra week to prepare. I don’t expect Arthur Smith to truly let Ridder cook, and schematically the offense probably won’t look drastically different with him under center. With the extra rest and a swiss cheese-level defense to play, the Saints should cover at home. 🧀
The Pick: Saints -4 (-110)
Here we go again, the Dallas Cowboys against a team they are much more talented than. One week, they win by 500. A week later and our nails are chewed off by halftime. As talented as this roster is, we don’t know what they are going to give us each week. Still, this line is doing some heavy lifting for Trevor Lawrence (who is great, by the way), and Dallas’ dynamic defense is still a super tough test.
The Pick: Cowboys -4 (-110), Christian Kirk To Score (+170)
Hey, I just wrote about the Carolina Panthers! They’re more talented than you might think and have impressed me during their recent hot streak. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t take kindly to losing, and their defense is licking their chops against Sam Darnold. Kenny Pickett might stink, but it’s only a matter of time before Darnold comes crashing back down.
The Pick: Steelers +3 (-120)
Who is winning in the late afternoon slate?
Just watch a different game. The Kyler Murray-less Arizona Cardinals visit the Denver Broncos. We don’t even get the entertainment value of Russell Wilson personally doing the Seattle Seahawks some favors. No quarterbacks, no head coaches, and less talent than any of us would have predicted a few short months ago. Take Denver and their (much) better defense. 🙈
The Pick: Broncos -1.5 (-110)
An interesting storyline from our late afternoon batch of games is a tale of a student and a teacher. Short of a Derek Carr explosion, this Las Vegas Raiders team doesn’t scare me. Especially if Josh Jacobs ends up not playing. New England have a massive edge in the coaching department and are still contending for a playoff spot. The drop off at quarterback has forced them to be on the wrong side of the spread, but I think the defense comes up huge in Vegas.
The Pick: Patriots +1 (-110), Patriots Moneyline (+100)
I was tempted to take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win this game as a result of my faith in Tom Brady not being unprecedentedly poor in the loss column, but then I looked ahead at their schedule. Arizona. Carolina. Atlanta. He’ll finish over .500 no matter how this game shakes out. Against a team playing as well as the Bengals, Sunday’s game will be the toughest task Tampa faces until they host a playoff game. It’s probably a bit too tough.
The Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110)
The Tennessee Titans stink. Fortunately for them, there may not be a better matchup for Derrick Henry. The Los Angeles Chargers are infamously poor against the run. I think they sneak into the dance, but not before a scary hiccup at home.
The Pick: Titans +3 (-105)
What are the best bets for the primetime games?
The New York Giants and Washington Commanders were evenly matched just two weeks ago. Literally. Their tie threw a funky wrench in the NFC playoff picture. They meet again on Sunday Night Football with a chance to boost each of their own playoff odds. I took the Commanders last time, but I like the better-coached Giants to keep this one close.
The Pick: Giants +4.5 (-110)
Bakermania is back, this time in Los Angeles. The decrepit Rams team gets a winter visit to the Green Bay Packers in the final ugly matchup of the week. I’m excited to see how Sean McVay handles Baker Mayfield with a chance to learn the playbook. Likewise, Green Bay’s defense scares me, in a bad way, and I don’t trust them to pull away from any competent offense. The Mayfield Cycle is inevitable, but it doesn’t have to come so soon. 🔄
The Pick: Rams +7 (-110)
BASIC TIPS
This article features against the spread (ATS) bets. “Covering” for favorites means winning by (at least) the allotted point spread. For underdogs, denoted with a (+), they must win or lose by less than that spread. For example, the Chiefs are favored by 14.5. That means they must win by 15 or more in order to cover. The Texans could either win or lose by 14 or less.