I can’t tell you who will win the Super Bowl. I can tell you that there are certain narratives meant to distract you from making the best bet possible.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, a.k.a Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL draft, will be under center. Once a third stringer, Purdy has given hope to a team that has lost both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo.
The playoffs are arduous for any quarterback, rookies perhaps more so. Purdy has taken significant snaps in six games and has managed to continue the 49ers’ 10-game win streak.
I don’t really care that he’s a seventh-round rookie.
Are the 49ers a good Super Bowl bet?
It’s important that the following becomes abundantly clear. In all likelihood, Purdy is not some hidden gem franchise quarterback. A Super Bowl run would be impressive not because their quarterback is a star, but because he’s masqueraded as one for all this time.
We’re only having this conversation because Kyle Shanahan is the best in the world at putting lipstick on pigs.
The Shanahan system has redefined how we view passing production. For almost any other team, losing a starting quarterback means one’s chances at a ring and an equally productive offense also land on the Injured Reserve. Yet, San Francisco continuously lifts the floor of any quarterback lucky to operate it.
Garoppolo was commandeering one of the most efficient offenses in football. Draftniks drooled over the possibilities that Lance would unlock. In previous years, the 49ers remained competent despite injuries to Jimmy G with quarterbacks that nobody has willfully started since. Now, it’s Purdy’s turn to ride the lazy river of San Francisco’s offense, calmly game managing his way to the NFC’s second seed.
To his credit, he’s playing well, and it would be disingenuous to give all the props to Shanahan. The advanced metrics like him, too. Since Week 13, his EPA/Play ranks fourth in all of football. His success rate (percent of plays generating a positive EPA) ranks eighth.
Shanahan is a man possessed with a play sheet in his hands and it has kept the 49ers alive. He isn’t without help.
The other reason San Francisco’s +500 odds to win the Super Bowl are valid is simple: they are really, really good. They boast the league’s best defense with far and away the best middle linebacker in the sport, Fred Warner, and the likely Defensive Player of the Year, Nick Bosa. If you’re willing to put a unit down on a Lombardi Trophy heading west, use this DraftKings’ promotion to make it happen: BET $5 GET $150 IN BONUS BETS.
On offense, they have the most versatile set of tools a coach can ask for. Deebo Samuel has the skills of a running back and wide receiver, and it shows after the catch. Christian McCaffrey is an elite running back who also moonlights as a spectacular pass catcher. Brandon Aiyuk is a stud who’s finally enjoying the breakout many anticipated. George Kittle is an upper-class receiver and blocker. The offensive line isn’t too shabby, either.
The 49ers have, at worst, the second-best non-quarterbacking roster in the sport. Their young quarterback is in the perfect offense to hide his flaws. San Francisco isn’t perfect and will have to take on some special teams if they want to win a ring, but we already knew that.
Again, I can’t promise that Jalen Hurts doesn’t go nuclear in the NFC championship game or that they can keep pace with whatever quarterback survives the AFC gauntlet. But Bay Area bettors on the fence shouldn’t be scared of Purdy’s lack of experience or elite talent. You don’t win 10 consecutive games by accident.
Getting that total up to 14 starts with beating the Seattle Seahawks, who the Niners are currently 9.5-point favorites against. Their -475 odds to win outright from DraftKings (pay $475 to win $100) are a clear indication that the divisional round is a near lock.
From there, Purdy won’t be asked to step up, but to step with the rest of the cast that has lifted him this far. A San Francisco Super Bowl is indeed possible.