There are two kinds of people in this world – those who have a zeal for roller coasters and those who disdain the breathtaking speeds and stomach flipping drops. As a member of the former group, the fluctuations we witnessed in the line for the AFC Championship Game between the Bengals at Chiefs on Sunday didn’t bother The Loser in the least.
The injury to Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes forced oddsmakers to throw a couple of a lures into the pool to see what the fish were biting on.
Despite the injury, the Chiefs opened as three-point favorites. A seismic change occurred and within 30 minutes the Bengals were installed as a one-point favorite. When Mahomes, who suffered a right high ankle sprain went through practice on Wednesday, the Chiefs re-emerged as 1.5-point favorites.
And that’s where we are – for now.
“I have no idea how Patrick Mahomes is getting through this week, but I want whatever he’s taking,” Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy quipped earlier this week.
We’re taking the Chiefs. The Bengals were ridiculously impressive last week in their 27-10 dismantling of the Bills in Buffalo. But let’s consider two inescapable truths:
- The Bills were emotionally spent. How could they not have been after living through the Damar Hamlin trauma? They played like a team that had nothing left in the emotional tank.
2. The loss of pass rusher extraordinaire Von Miller was a crushing blow. Buffalo finished with 40 sacks in the regular season. The Chiefs had 55, tied for second behind the Eagles.
Without Miller, the Bengals battered offensive line wasn’t the liability it will be tomorrow in Arrowhead or Burrowhead Stadium. Alex Cappa and Jonah Williams are not expected to play.
In the last three meetings between the teams – all Bengals win by three points each – the Chiefs only got to Burrow six times. We think that will change.
+CHIEFS -2.5 over Bengals – A young Chiefs defense was mediocre at times this season, allowing 21.6 points, good for 15th and tied with the Buccaneers. But over the last four games they’ve held teams to 16.75. The return of rookie Trent McDuffie gives the Chiefs a cornerback tandem to defend Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, if, K.C. can get heat on Burrow.
49ers +2.5 over EAGLES – We’ve gone back and forth on this game since the matchup was set. The 49ers defense is relentless and rookie QB Brock Purdy has so many options at his disposal. The Eagles also have a pulverizing defense and Jalen Hurts has emerged as a topflight QB.
This game calls for a paradigm shift in thinking – can a rookie QB, one with just seven starts – lead his team to the Super Bowl? This would have been unthinkable in the past. But Purdy has won everywhere he’s been and if he ever gets nervous, we’ve yet to see it.
He was held in check by the Dallas defense last week 19-of-29 for 214 yards with no touchdowns and no picks. As good as the Philly defense is (70 sacks; great secondary) it does not possess the same speed as the Dallas D.
We can easily see the Eagles winning but we like the 49ers to cover and TE George Kittle to score a touchdown. We made two wagers at BetMGM:
49ers getting +2.5 with Hurts and Kittle each scoring a touchdown. We got +1000 and put down $20 for a payout of $220, meaning we’d net $200. We also took the 49ers getting the +2.5 with Kittle taking advantage of the one soft spot on the Philly defense – linebacker. We got +380 on that and staked another $20 for a $96 payoff, meaning we’d net $76.
Last week: 2-2; Best Bets: 1-0.
Playoffs: 6-4; Best Bets: 2-0
+ Best Bet