Over the next 24-48 many NFL teams will be unwrapping presents under the tree and on the field. It remains to be seen which of those teams find coal, and which of them find something much better. Perhaps a ticket could be found in some of those boxes. A ticket to the playoffs, not the Polar Express.
It’s a magical time of year, made for miracles, which some teams certainly need to continue playing past Week 18. How many will get the gift they’ve hoped for all season? In our book, that advantage is with the road teams in this Week 16 slate. It’s estimated that nearly 47% of Americans will travel this holiday season. So whether you’ve been naughty or nice, home or away, a believer in our picks or not, we wish you safe travels, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from our Bet Basics family to you. Now let’s make some money.
**All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook**
‘Twas the day before Christmas
It’s officially playoff berth clinching season and this year it includes the New York Giants? Who would’ve thought? Riding high after a primetime win in Washington, these Giants have a chance to secure a playoff spot if everything breaks their way. However, an emotional win over a division rival makes this game against the Vikings a real letdown spot for them. Minnesota won’t suffer a repeat of last week, which required them to set a new record for the largest comeback in league history, after being down 33-0 against Indianapolis. Expect the Vikings to be ready when the game kicks off this time.
The Pick: Vikings -3.5 (-118)
Fresh off an ugly win over rival Baltimore last Saturday, the Browns now turn their attention to a horrible Saints team that narrowly escaped with a win over rival Atlanta. These aren’t fun teams and it will probably be an ugly game, but the Browns have more talent on paper and that’s enough for us. Plus, they have an elf for a logo. We can’t bet against some hard working elves this time of year.
The Pick: Browns -2.5 (-118)
Now here’s a team that’s always fun, the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell’s group spent most of this season as afterthoughts, nothing more than a fun Hard Knocks story for football starved fans in August. Yet here they are, a potential playoff team, against another potential playoff team? The Panthers really aren’t, “In the Hunt,” in a traditional sense, but they have a chance to win the NFC South because the division is insistent on being horrendous. While Carolina has been playing better, we must acknowledge that this Detroit team is a different beast. Take the Lions on the road, who will be taking the Panthers’ two front teeth for Christmas.
The Pick: Lions -2.5 (-115)
Yes, the Bengals stumbled in Tampa for a little while on Sunday, but there is no way that impacts this game against the Patriots. Last time we saw the Pats, they were in Vegas, leaving like most people do. Upset, dejected, and feeling a lot worse about themselves than they were during arrival. Unfortunately for New England, what happened in Vegas didn’t stay there, but instead followed them home to Massachusetts. With the Bengals rolling, it’s important to remember Bill Belichick’s team still isn’t good. Take the Halloween-colored team to find some red and green magic.
The Pick: Bengals -3 (-115)
Justin Fields makes this game watchable, but outside of that, watch out. With a win in Chicago, the Bills can officially clinch the AFC East, setting their sights on the top seed in the AFC. The Bears are hindered by injuries, especially in the receiver’s room, leaving them without many options to contend with the mighty Bills, who basically play in the North Pole and won’t have any troubles dealing with the cold.
The Pick: Bills -8.5 (-110)
Ryan Tannehill will not be suiting up for the Titans this weekend, leaving the rookie quarterback Malik Willis to start on Saturday. While the news certainly helps our cause, it’s not like Tennessee has been playing well recently anyway. They’ve consistently made games more interesting than they should’ve been, highlighted by their inability to run the ball at times with someone like Derrick Henry, who was considered the league’s best running back. Meanwhile these Texans have been frisky in recent weeks, taking Kansas City to overtime on Sunday. They’ll keep it close again.
The Pick: Texans +3.5 (-118)
By now we know that the Seahawks have been sputtering, losers of four of the last five. However on the other side, the Chiefs have struggled as of late too, appearing to be on cruise control as they await playoff football. All of that adds up to a close game that will swing one way or another late. The Chiefs will probably get the job done in the end, but it won’t be easy against a motivated Seahawks bunch that needs a win. Trust Seattle to keep it close.
The Pick: Seahawks +10 (-112)
It’s time for the Week 16 edition of, fade the Ravens! You know the drill by now. They can’t score no matter who is playing quarterback and even with the Falcons starting a rookie signal caller, Baltimore will still find a way to keep it close.
The Pick: Falcons +6 (-110)
‘Twas the evening before Christmas
Washington suffered a brutal loss at home on Sunday, which dealt a serious blow to their playoff hopes, but all is not lost just yet. The Commanders have a chance to try and find a win against the 49ers and rookie sensation Brock Purdy. It’s unlikely at best and impossible at worst, but sometimes miracles do happen. There is no doubt that Washington has more to play for at this stage, with the Niners almost locked in to the second or third seed in the NFC. They probably won’t win, but they’ll keep it close, even against this dominant defense.
The Pick: Commanders +7 (-114)
Gardner Minshew will get the start for Philadelphia as Jalen Hurts is banged up. That significantly swung the line in favor of the Cowboys, but Minshew has proven to be a capable quarterback in the past, making this a great spot to bet on the Eagles. Dallas’ meltdown against the Jaguars on Sunday took most of the excitement out of this game, essentially putting the division out of reach for the Cowboys. Regardless, these are two teams that might see each other again down the road, meaning it will be must-see TV.
The Pick: Eagles +5.5 (-105)
50 years ago, the Immaculate Reception game ended with a 13-7 final score in favor of the Steelers. On the 50th Anniversary, there’s a good chance we see a similar scoreline, adjusted for inflation, thanks to two offenses that can look real ugly at times. It will be an emotional night in the Steel City with frigid temperatures as well. However this time it will be the Raiders on the winning end of a close game, as their stars find a way to get the job done, delivering lumps of coal to the freezing Steeler faithful in the stands.
The Pick: Raiders +2.5 (-105)
Christmas Day Slate
Will this be the week the Dolphins decide to exclusively run the ball? Will this be the week the Packers postseason dreams end? The answer to the first question will go a long way in determining whether the second question’s answer is yes or no. We kick off Christmas Day with this fun matchup in Miami, which should be, by far, the most exciting game of the day. The Green Bay offense has found itself recently, which coincides with the emergence of rookie receiver Christian Watson. It’s doubtful that Aaron Rodgers will allow his team to go quietly into the night, just like it’s doubtful that Miami decides to run the ball all afternoon with a great rushing attack. For those reasons, bet on Green Bay to find a way on the road.
The Pick: Packers +3.5 (-105)
Well, this is the problem with making schedules so early in advance. Of course, it had to be made that early, but not being able to flex these games makes for one brutal matchup in Los Angeles between two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. If Brett Rypien was starting, as crazy as this sounds, the Broncos would be a must-bet. Rypien is much better at running the Denver offense than Russell Wilson right now, so maybe resting for a week will help Wilson in this case. However, with so many injuries on the Rams’ side of things, we find it difficult to trust them too. Therefore, we have to bet on the team with more talent, on paper at least, to find a way on Christmas Day. We recommend watching this game on Nickelodeon though, to ease the strain on your eyes. At least there will be slime.
The Pick: Broncos -3 (-108)
Wrapping up the Christmas Day slate is another battle between two disappointing teams. The Buccaneers have been having trouble scoring, but the Cardinals are having trouble playing football entirely. Plus, the Cardinals are also another quarterback injury away from picking a fan in the stands to suit up. Most of this adds up to making for one ugly battle in the desert, but you’ll have eaten so much and received so many gifts that this Sunday night game will get pushed aside like the socks you got earlier in the day.
The Pick: Buccaneers -7.5 (-110)
Boxing Day Battle
Hopefully by this point you’ll have some awesome new gadgets to play with along with some fantastic new memories to reminisce about for years to come. Most importantly, we hope the only returns you’re looking at are the profits from a big weekend of betting. Whether you’re up or down at this point, we’ll rely on the Chargers to put a nice bow on Week 16 with a convincing win over a putrid Colts team in Indianapolis.
The Pick: Chargers -4.5 (-110)