The Brock Purdy story was fun. Endearing, wholesome, inspiring. Whichever adjective you feel fits best, the intention is the same. It was a fairytale. Until it wasn’t.
Purdy injured his elbow in the worst NFC Conference Game the San Francisco 49ers could have possibly imagined. The Philadelphia Eagles headed off to the Super Bowl with a dominant 31-7 win, thanks in part to facing legitimately zero threat of a passing attack.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan will go to the Hall of Fame one day for his contribution to NFL philosophy and his unmatchable ability to get passing production out of any quarterback. That Sunday, he could not get passing production out of the running back that he essentially had to resort to.
The fairytale turned to a horror story, but like all books, an eventual last page was turned. It’s time for the next edition of the 49ers offense. Which quarterback will start in the opening chapter?
Who is the best bet to start Week 1?
Frankly, there isn’t much calculus to be done here. PointsBet has offered odds on the upcoming controversy. While there is no such thing as free money in the sports betting world, this bet very much feels like an easy win.
Trey Lance is listed at -300. Purdy is at +185. The only other option is newly retired Tom Brady, at +6000.
Please don’t bet on the GOAT coming out of retirement for a second time. Just don’t.
The story here is between Lance and Purdy, and it’s a story with a lesson we’ve all heard before. Life isn’t fair.
Purdy stepped in for Jimmy Garoppolo, who will not be a 49er next year. He performed admirably, almost replicating his efficiency. He did not lose a game in which he didn’t land on the injury report. Purdy posted a 67.1% completion percentage, a 13:4 TD:INT ratio, and an EPA/Play that ranked sixth amongst passers with 200+ plays.
Lance is the man to bet on. If you’re willing to share my confidence, utilize PointsBet’s promotion for Bet Basics readers: UP TO 5x$100 BONUS BETS.
He was worse than Purdy in limited action. He too is coming off an injury. San Francisco has to start him.
The case for Trey Lance
For starters (no pun intended), the 49ers have not won a Super Bowl in the Shanahan era. It is simply undeniable that Lance’s ceiling is higher, and high-level quarterback play is the ultimate prerequisite for a championship run.
Lance has made every throw there is to make. He extended plays, avoided pressure, and gave us a preview of what an unlimited Shanahan playbook may look like. Lance is the embodiment of quarterbacking upside, and tapping into that is Shanahan’s best chance to bring a Super Bowl to the Bay.
While not paramount, it can not be overlooked just how important embarrassment can be to NFL decision makers. They’re human! I can’t blame them. However, trading three first-round picks, in the middle of a Super Bowl window, for a quarterback that did nothing to aid the championship window, would be one of the worst draft picks/trades of the century.
Starting Purdy is an admission of guilt, accelerating the timeline for San Francisco’s brass’ seats to warm and public perception to change. They won’t let that happen.
At the end of the day, this isn’t a battle between two stars, or a Hall of Famer and a highly-touted rookie. This is the third-overall pick just three years removed against the last pick of the 2022 NFL draft. This is an uber-talented physical presence and a limited passer experiencing bouts of good interception luck. Lance is recovering from an ankle injury. Purdy needs surgery on his throwing elbow, and it has already been pushed to March.
You’d be more inclined to consider the odds of him ever starting again, rather than him starting Week 1 in a 49ers uniform. The -300 odds won’t boost your bankroll by some incredible margin. One would need to place a $300 bet to win $100. But Lance is still the guy in San Francisco, and he’ll have every chance to prove it. Barring an additional injury, that begins Week 1.