The Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears selected first-round quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL draft, embarking them on seemingly parallel journeys. Both teams struggled mightily that season, ultimately firing their head coaches and carrying out significant roster turnover. With new coaches, offenses, and teammates, both hoped to kick off an ascent into NFL relevance. Three weeks into their sophomore seasons, the two have never looked farther apart. What the hell happened?
What happened to Justin Fields?
Justin Fields is broken. His confidence is shaken. His production is non-existent. It’s hard not to blame Chicago for the mess they’ve found themselves in.
This column isn’t going to be 600 of playing the blame game, but it’s important to recognize two obstacles in Fields’ path: an unbearable roster and a coaching staff that may not be ideal for his development.
A poor surrounding cast can stunt the growth of young, impressionable passers. Fields is not privy to the knowledge of what it’s like to play with competent offensive linemen. Since he’s entered the league he has not had the privilege of a top 31 offensive line, much less league average. Don’t get me started on the ragtag group of receivers he’s throwing to.
None of us should be surprised that Fields has fallen into bad habits. He’s lost his pocket presence and is far less accurate than the Ohio State version of himself. Fields has turned the routine difficult and the difficult impossible.
Through three weeks, he’s thrown the ball an incredibly few 45 times. The four interceptions, 18.2% sack rate, and 23 QBR are about as bad as it can get. Yet, Chicago is 2-1 thanks to an elite rushing offense and encouraging defensive play. In a season in which Fields needed to fight through his bad habits and shake each bad throw off as “part of getting better,” he’s been shoved into a locker of game management. Each throw means more. Each turnover feels lethal.
With less tape, less experience, and less success, we shouldn’t be surprised if Fields sputters out.
Is Trevor Lawrence actually good?
Despite sharing 2-1 records, the narratives surrounding the teams are about as far as the distance between them. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career and the Jaguars have emerged as a legitimate threat to a lousy AFC South (+225 on DraftKings). Fields looks hopeless and destined to be next on the long string of Bears busts at quarterback.
The narratives, this time, are right. How long that remains the case is up to Chicago.
Lawrence has begun to live up to the generational expectations set for him. He survived Urban Meyer and a rookie campaign that landed Jacksonville the first overall pick. Now with free memoir material, Lawrence is finding success.
His Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) currently ranks fifth in all of football (0.296). EPA attempts to quantify a player’s contributions in terms of their team’s likelihood to score. By moving the chains, improving field position, and executing in the red zone, the Jaguars are expected to score a lot, and they’ve done just that.
In the same vein, Fields’ -0.157 mark (31st amongst starters) is worrisome.
Jacksonville has followed the blueprint on developing a passer, even if they brutally missed just one short season ago. In its simplest form, it’s the opposite of Chicago’s plan of attack.
Head coach and mesh maestro Doug Pederson was brought in specifically to help Lawrence, hoping to find the same success Carson Wentz did in his sophomore season. They’ve put him in position to succeed both on the whiteboard and the gridiron. They brought in Christian Kirk and Brandon Scherff to headline their free agent class and improved the defense to keep games close.
Armed with an improved offensive line and an actual wide receiver, Lawrence got to work. He’s in an offense that allows him to quickly facilitate, without neutering him, a la Joe Lombardi. His 7.1 Air Yards/Attempt may seem low, but it’s not out of apprehension. He’s a quick processor and decisive with the ball in his hands. In Pederson’s offense, those skills have manifested itself in a quick-hitting passing attack. Subsequently, Lawrence has been able to avoid mistakes and leverage the strengths in his profile to put points on the board.
Instead of bracing for the mistakes of their young passer, Jacksonville has put him in a position to win games. The Bears are sending Fields out not to lose them.