This season has been a ton of fun, but #NFLWeek10’s slate of games…leaves something to be desired. There is one (ONE!) matchup between two teams with winning records. Yet, there’s only 18 weeks of regular season football. There’s no chance I’m letting one of our sacred weekends go by without any action. Let’s get our hands dirty.
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.*
Who is covering in the early window?
Our early-early game takes place in Germany for the first time in regular season history. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were lucky enough to have the travel advantage. In a projected close matchup, that may show up. The Seattle Seahawks defense has exceeded expectations but will face few tasks more difficult than the Tampa Bay receiving corps. I don’t anticipate a particularly high-scoring match in Munich, but those receivers should make their name known to this new batch of fans. For more on these types of bets, check the Basic Tips section under this article.
The Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-115)
Trevor Lawrence is good at football. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s talk Jacksonville Jaguars. This game has backdoor cover all over it. The Kansas City Chiefs should pull ahead early and keep it that way, but as we’ve seen this is not a team capable of underplaying its opponents. Kansas City is giving up more than a touchdown per game in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville will be behind, but Lawrence’s development gives me hope that this game won’t get too ugly.
The Pick: Jaguars +9.5 (-110)
Josh Allen’s status is in doubt as we close in on the weekend 🤕. His elbow injury could hamper Buffalo’s chances in the coming weeks. Personally, I’d sit the savior of the franchise if he could barely hold a football, but to each their own. The Minnesota Vikings are legitimately good, despite the incoming wave of regression 🌊. If Allen isn’t himself, Minnesota should take this game on the road. If you want in on some of the action, you can use Caesar’s promotion for BetBasics readers: GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK UP TO $1,000.
The Pick: Vikings +3 (-110)
Two diametrically opposed offenses. Two ugly defenses. The Miami Dolphins high-speed chase of an offense is going to put up points, but the Cleveland Browns have Nick Chubb. They’re going to do everything in their power to assert dominance and control the football. Facing a team that just gave up 170 rushing yards to a quarterback, there’s a ripe opportunity to run away with a win here 😉.
The Pick: Browns +3.5 (-115)
This game feels a lot like when the Panthers came to town to play the New York Giants in the middle of September. Bad team against supposed-to-be bad team, a small spread, and an idiot willing to take the underdog. I’ll learn from my mistake and fade the incompetent team led by their run game. Expect a ton of pressure from New York and a long Daniel Jones run against an undisciplined Houston Texans team.
The Pick: Giants -4.5 (-110), Daniel Jones Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-119)
Sure, they dirtied the bed on Monday Night Football. But I can’t see Kenny Pickett’s “arrival” coming against this New Orleans Saints defense. Their strong run defense will leave a poorly designed offense on the ropes, making the Saints offense’s job that much easier. Expect New Orleans to stay competitive in a joke of an NFC South.
The Pick: Saints -1.5 (-110)
I can’t emphasize how important it is for Russell Wilson to start hot on Sunday. The Denver Broncos defense is elite, from its talent to its coaching. Their run defense, however, isn’t the reason for that success. If Derrick Henry has all day to stay in the game and grind down Denver to dust, it’ll be over before any number on the scoreboard reflects it. Get out in front and make a mediocre Titans offense throw the ball.
The Pick: Broncos +2.5 (-105), Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+139)
Simply put, I don’t buy last week as anything legitimate. The Packers stink and their offensive incompetence was, well, offensive. That defense should revert back to normal against a Chicago Bears offense that…looks good? Imagine that. Justin Fields is going to cook 👨🍳. This sudden stardom may not last, but it won’t be a one game trend. Bears, at home, against a less talented team. I like those odds.
The Pick: Bears -2.5 (-120)
Who is winning in the late afternoon window?
As much as the Mike McCarthy revenge game would be perfect ending like many of his Packers’ seasons (with a loss), the talent differential here must be acknowledged. The Dallas Cowboys have a better quarterback right now. Their run game is better than Green Bay’s run defense. Their pass defense and pass rush win both matchups on paper. If this game was in Jerry World we’d be talking about covering a touchdown.
The Pick: Cowboys -4 (-110)
Just a few days ago I screamed from the rooftops to take Raiders -6. Now that line has moved a point and a half towards Indianapolis and the Jeff Saturday-led Colts. The perpetual disappointment that is Derek Carr would reach a new low with a loss on Sunday. The injuries don’t shake me very much. Not against a team as depleted and demoralized as Indianapolis.
The Pick: Raiders -2.5 (-110)
If you ever wondered what two broken offenses and two broken defenses looked like at the same time. Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams gives you your answer. Kyler Murray just can’t get the Cardinals on track. The Rams can’t play man defense because their secondary has been so inconsistent. Arizona is the 29th-ranked defense in neutral game scripts. Los Angeles has Anthony Soprano Jr. blocking for Matt Stafford. Watching this one will be like watching your little cousin run around the kitchen a little too fast. Should you put a stop to it? Probably. Will anyone blame you for keeping your distance? Of course not.
The Pick: Cardinals +3 (-110), Over 40 (-110)
How should you bet the primetime games?
The Seahawks have an AFC counterpart in their persistent pursuit of pandemonium. The Los Angeles Chargers are bruised, battered, and probably kind of bad. It’s important to remember, however, that the Chargers are legally bound to playing weird football games. The San Francisco 49ers are better, healthier, and better coached. Chaos knows no depth chart.
The Pick: Chargers +7 (-105)
I’m not sure the streak of good luck will end on Monday night, but it sure might come close. There are cracks in the Philadelphia Eagles’ armor, and a gritty division rival could put a few more dents in it. Double-digit points is a lot for any divisional matchup, and as we saw last week, Super Bowl 🏆 contenders aren’t infallible.
The Pick: Commanders +11 (-110), Jalen Hurts To Score a Touchdown (+165)
BASIC TIPS
This bet mainly features Against the Spread (ATS bets). Here, a team must cover the proposed spread in order to hit. For example, the Dallas Cowboys must win by more than four points. The Packers must win or lose by less than four in order to cover. If you aren’t comfortable with a particular spread you can find alternative lines in your sportsbook, but you’ll win less money.