A week without bye weeks is the perfect Thanksgiving gift. After a side of football to go with our turkey, we’ve got a massive slate of #NFLWeek12 games to enjoy. What this week lacks in headliner matchups, it makes up for in #NFLbetting quandaries to explore. Can we trust teams to cover two touchdowns? Which backup quarterback is the best bet? Let’s make some money for Cyber Monday.
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.*
Who’s covering in the early window?
It seemed like destiny when the Carolina Panthers acquired Baker Mayfield that at least three quarterbacks would take the field. With Sam Darnold starting on Sunday, the prophecy would be complete. This game should be uglier than that one cousin’s mac and cheese. Russell Wilson has been the biggest disappointment in football, but the bar is too low for Sunday. Expect a couple shot plays to be the difference.
The Pick: Broncos -1 (-110), D’Onta Foreman to Score a Touchdown (+165)
It’s tempting to take Nick Chubb and the Cleveland Browns against a suspect Tampa Bay run defense, but I am terrified of what Tom Brady is going to do this secondary. All year, we’ve heard complaints about players not being where they are supposed to be and failing to communicate on the back end. The greatest pre-snap quarterback ever should be licking his chops. They’ll throw past the damage Chubb does.
The Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 (+100)
Just like last week, the Washington Commanders are playing a team that loves to run the football. However, few teams are better at stopping the run than Washington. Arthur Smith’s teams have struggled to win through the air, and while the Commanders’ offense isn’t particularly threatening, they should be able to win in a handful of ways. I can’t say the same for Atlanta. If you want to buy in on the Washington hot streak, be sure to use Caesars’ promotion for BetBasics readers: GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK UP TO $1,000.
The Pick: Commanders -4 (-110)
It’s been a tough go of it for the Jacksonville Jaguars, and their schedule didn’t provide them much of a gift in the form of the Baltimore Ravens. Still, they’ve got an athletic defense that is well-equipped to contain Lamar Jackson–at least as well as humanly possible. Baltimore has played down to opponents this year, and Jacksonville is talented enough to scare them straight. 😨
The Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-110)
The Miami Dolphins haven’t beaten anyone by 14, and that includes wins over Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Chicago. With a bye week to prepare, I expect the fireworks to be on display against a meager Houston Texans defense. Still, there isn’t much to suggest Miami is complete enough to truly run away with this one. Fade the public on Sunday. For more on fading the public, check out the Basic Tips section at the bottom of this piece.
The Pick: Texans +14 (-110), Jaylen Waddle to Score a Touchdown (+107), Over 47 (-110)
The runner-up for ugly duckling 🐣 of the week goes to the Chicago Bears and the New York Jets. Two backup quarterbacks. Two bad teams. One touchdown spread. The Mike White-led Jets are seven-point favorites at home. Frankly, I’m not sure if I buy it. New York should win, but to say they are prone to falling flat would be an understatement. I like Chicago to keep this one close, regardless of who starts at quarterback.
The Pick: Bears +7 (-110)
Here’s your easy pick for the game of the week. The banged up Cincinnati Bengals visit Nashville for a bout with the Tennessee Titans. Derrick Henry has been unstoppable and Joe Burrow has helped keep the Bengals competitive in a feisty AFC. Unfortunately, Ja’Marr Chase won’t be playing in this game, eliminating a threat for a Tennessee defense that is playing incredibly well in recent weeks. Come January my answer may change, but for now I like the Titans.
The Pick: Titans +1.5 (-110), Titans Moneyline (+100)
Who is winning in the late afternoon slate?
The Los Angeles Chargers have been annoying to project this year thanks to their grocery list of injuries and proclivity for pandemonium. Sunday, we may get a break from the theatrics. Their weapons are healthy and Justin Herbert continues to deal. Against a bruised, battered, and bad Arizona Cardinals team, a three-point spread is awfully generous. 🤑
The Pick: Chargers -3 (+100)
It may get a little close for comfort, but the Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in football. Trust them to take care of business against a disastrously bad Los Angeles Rams team. They’ve cut their starting running back, sat their injured starting quarterback, and recently lost star receiver Cooper Kupp to injury. They’re officially as bad as the bottom feeders they laughed at from the top of the mountain less than a year ago.
The Pick: Chiefs -15.5 (-110), Over 42 (-110)
Once again, I’m putting my faith in the incredible story of Geno Smith. Seattle is more talented than we initially anticipated and have the advantage at most position groups. If anything else, put faith in Derek Carr’s ability to find ways to lose.
The Pick: Seahawks -4 (-110)
How confident are you in Andy Dalton keeping it close against one of the most talented teams in football? The San Francisco 49ers are rolling right now, and aside from a quarterback collapse, are well-positioned to win big on Sunday. At home with a divisional title to play for, San Francisco has every reason to put a lead foot on the gas. 🏎
The Pick: 49ers -9 (-110)
What are the best bets for the primetime games?
The cracks are showing in the foundation of the Philadelphia Eagles. They’ve struggled to deal with the run, they’ve hesitated when asked to put it all on Jalen Hurts, and the turnover luck is crashing back down to Earth. The Green Bay Packers aren’t very good, but a wildcard is still in play and they have the offensive talent to threaten the Eagles defense. There may be an upset brewing under the lights of Sunday Night Football.
The Pick: Packers +6.5 (-110)
The theme of the 2022 season comes down to two options. Unbridled chaos at every turn or the unrelenting disappointment of primetime television. That very well should continue on Monday Night Football. Kenny Pickett has about two good halves of football to his name. The Jeff Saturday honeymoon is over. I think T.J. Watt takes over and wins an ugly one in Indianapolis.
The Pick: Steelers +2.5 (-110)
BASIC TIPS
“Fading the public” is a strategy based on the idea that the house always wins. They do so by tricking the public week in and week out. If a game seems too obvious, too good to be true, there’s a good chance the public is pouring their money into it. If you notice a vast majority of the bets on a favorite to cover the spread–win by the amount of points denoted next to the (-) sign–it may be best to take the underdog.