On your mark, get set, go! The NFL season is off and running, and after an electric Week 1, we’ve got enough information to make some educated guesses for Sunday’s slate. My colleague, Nick Brinkerhoff, and I will be providing dueling picks for the rest of the season.
To be frank, I’m a little nervous about posting my picks before Nick. I don’t want to give him the answer key to Sunday’s test.
Who’s covering in Week 2?
Who’s covering in the 1 p.m. slate?
*All odds are via Caesars unless stated otherwise.
Carson Wentz passed his first test in Week 1, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars, 28-22. Washington’s defense made enough big plays to win and they’ll have the opportunity to do so again against the limited Jared Goff. D’Andre Swift’s injury may not knock him out of the contest, but it very well could leave him limited, both in his snap count and impact. Additionally, Detroit’s offensive line is banged up. Losing out on Swift’s explosive plays scares me, though I think they keep it close.
The Pick: Commanders +1.5 (-110)
I don’t like betting against Bill Belichick. I really don’t like betting against him when he’s playing against an atrocious quarterback. The New England Patriots have proven they can blow teams out of the water, even with Mac Jones under center. Without the threat of T.J. Watt, Jones should be more comfortable than he was last week.
The Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-110)
Last week was a lot of fun for the New York Giants, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned as a New Jerseyan, it’s that good things don’t last for our football teams. Carolina offers a roster with more talent at virtually every position, with their biggest red flag wearing the headset. If Baker Mayfield can avoid another egregious start, I like the Panthers to cover.
The Pick: Panthers +2 (-110)
Speaking of New Jersey inhabitants that aren’t very good at football, the New York Jets will attempt to play football on Sunday. They stuck around for a while against Baltimore, but fell flat once it became clear Joe Flacco wasn’t going to move the ball. Against a Cleveland offense that scares nobody, expect Robert Saleh’s squad to stick around a bit longer. Also, including New York in a six-point teaser looks to be favorable given the projected total of 39.5.
The Pick: Jets +6.5 (-110)
I’m wary about Tom Brady against the Saints, but -2.5 is a really lucrative line. Divisional underdogs are solid, especially in September. Still, Brady and the Buccaneers are the more talented team and Todd Bowles should be well-positioned to overwhelm Winston and the New Orleans offensive line. Don’t expect too much from a revenge game standpoint.
The Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
There may not be a more fun Sunday afternoon contest than Dolphins @ Ravens. Lamar Jackson’s a star but Miami’s defense is no joke, especially given the advantage they have over Baltimore’s receivers. The +158 value on Miami’s moneyline is intriguing. I initially had a paragraph ready to go about banking on the better quarterback, but injuries to Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey, and Marcus Peters scare me. Not to mention, Kyle Fuller is out for the year. Miami’s explosive playmakers can win the day.
The Pick: Dolphins +3.5 (-115)
The aforementioned home divisional ‘dogs trend feels primed to hit in the final 1 p.m. game. The Jaguars are much improved and under new, more competent, management. The Indianapolis Colts are likely the best team in the division, but no lock for success. They looked vulnerable in their tie against Houston in Week 1. Now, they’ll be thinner at wide receiver with Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman out. As long as Jonathan Taylor doesn’t go nuclear, expect Jacksonville to keep it close.
The Pick: Jaguars +3 (+100)
Who are the best bets from the late afternoon slate?
Atlanta is that one girl every guy in class seems to rebound with. Expect the Los Angeles Rams to do the same. They came out flat against Buffalo, but few matchups showcase this much of a talent discrepancy. Even better, if the Falcons’ lead is big enough, they’ll just blow it anyway. Stafford’s season will get back on track Sunday, as will the Rams’ offense.
The Pick: Rams -10 (-110), Allen Robinson to score TD (+155)
Let Geno Cook. The Geno Smith era in Seattle, if you’re willing to call it that, mirrored the same chaos that Russell Wilson experienced. Now that Wilson has left Seattle for good, things might go back to normal. San Francisco is a much better team, featuring explosive playmakers and the most underrated back seven in football. Yet, it is all too easy to see inconsistent quarterback play render this game close. I think Trey Lance is the guy in the bay, but if you thought it’d be smooth sailing, you were lying to yourself.
The Pick: Seahawks +9.5 (-110), Trey Lance over 0.5 INTs (+116)
Covering double digits is no small task for an 0-1 team, but the lack of talent in Houston can create a snowball effect. I’m not confident Lovie Smith’s defense will stifle Wilson, and it sure won’t stop the run. Denver should win the trench battle easily, boosting the profitability of their running back props. The chances of both fumbling are slim, too. The Broncos should come out looking like the team that, by all measures but score, won on Monday.
The Pick: Broncos -10 (-110), Javonte Williams over 56.5 rush yards (-115)
Few games have the chance to be as ugly as Cardinals @ Raiders. Arizona was thoroughly embarrassed last week, and for as talented as Las Vegas looks to be, they’ve made a habit of disappointing. Davante Adams’ grandparents will be in attendance, fueling a potential big afternoon. I’ll take their firepower over the Cardinals defense that couldn’t stop an Arkansas State offense if they came to town.
The Pick: Raiders -5.5, the over on any Davante Adams prop
Talk about games that can get ugly. The Dallas Cowboys are without Dak Prescott and seemingly any reason to play good football the rest of the year. The front office let them out to dry in what could have been another year of Super Bowl contention. Now, Cooper Rush gets the tall task of beating a pissed off Bengals team. I’m not sure why the spread isn’t double what it currently is.
The Pick: Bengals -7 (-110)
Week 2’s Primetime Games
This week has already blessed us with an incredible primetime game, setting a bar the rest of the night games can’t live up to. That includes the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. It seems every year the Bears get routed on national television. Rodgers owns them and despite their struggles last week, the world should be confident in them covering a massive spread. I know I am. Aaron Rodgers isn’t starting out 0-2.
The Pick: Packers -10 (-110)
The first of two Monday Night Football games, Titans @ Bills is shaping up to be a lot of fun. Tennessee lost to a sorry Giants roster in Week 1. Buffalo blew out the Super Bowl Champions. Nashville’s own has played the Bills close in recent years, and I think they stick around thanks to Derrick Henry’s unique ability to change games. Josh Allen may be too overwhelming to take down, but it isn’t impossible to slow him down enough to keep it close.
The Pick: Titans +10 (-110)
We cap off our week in Philadelphia, where Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins get to make their next argument for MVP. The two risers are flawed, and I expect both to show them. The Eagles’ run defense needs to get its act together quickly. Allowing the Vikings the option of Dalvin Cook or Justin Jefferson sounds like a good way to lose by 30. I like the Eagles to win the division, but it isn’t going to come easy, especially after a 1-1 start.
The Pick: Vikings +2 (-110)