Brian Robinson Jr.Nick Chubb

Anthony’s Week 5 Picks: Beware of big spreads

Things are finally looking up in the land of Anthony’s picks. After a flurry of poor performances, we went .500. As we look to ride the wave into profitable margins, Week 5’s slate offers a balance of divisional matchups and in-conference storylines to track. At the very least, we can be assured that no game will be as ugly as Thursday Night Football. Who are the best bets for Sunday’s action?

*All odds via Caesars Sportsbook unless stated otherwise*

Who is covering in the early window?

Starting again with the “early early” game, the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers face off in a battle of 3-1 teams across the Atlantic. The eight-point spread isn’t surprising given our preseason expectations for these two teams. This game should come down to a single factor: Saquon Barkley. Green Bay has struggled against the run, and Barkley has taken over in half of his team’s games this year. With a quarterback advantage this big and no defensive superstars to even out the scales, I expect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to escape with the win and the cover.

The Pick: Packers -8 (-110)

I’ve expressed my frustrations with head coach Arthur Smith and his usage of Kyle Pitts, but the Atlanta Falcons continue to play good football. With the Buccaneers scuffling, there’s an opportunity here to sneak up on an otherwise strong team. Could it end in the typical, painful fashion? Sure. Vegas is writing this off as a blowout, and I’m not overly convinced that a less-than normal Tom Brady will deliver.

The Pick: Falcons +10 (-110)

Consider me Geno-pilled. Smith carved up the Lions defense last week and deserves credit for his strong opening month. The Seattle Seahawks look much more competitive than their offseason would suggest. New Orleans, on the other hand, is disappointing and now onto their second-string quarterback. The biggest reason for this sizable five-point spread is the Saints’ talent on defense. Still, Smith isn’t playing mistake-prone football. Expect him to show up again.

The Pick: Seahawks +5 (-110)

If everybody was healthy, I’d be hammering the New York Jets at +19.5. It’s the NFL though, so nobody is healthy. Tua Tagovailoa is out, and Miami’s star wide receivers will play through the pain. The Dolphins are only favored by 3.5 points on the road. Do we really expect Zach Wilson to protect the football better than Teddy Bridgewater? Are we sure this (bad) Jets defense can keep pace with the fastest team on the planet? There are far too many concerns to have faith in New York.

The Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-105)

There are two distinct ways to break down this AFC South matchup. Either you fade the Jacksonville Jaguars on the basis that they are, well, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Or, you believe in the hype and that Jacksonville is legit. From a coaching, quarterback, and defensive perspective, the Houston Texans are at a disadvantage. Seven points is a healthy margin, but Trevor Lawrence isn’t fumbling four times again.

The Pick; Jaguars -7 (-110)

It’s really easy to fade a historically bad passing offense like the Chicago Bears. Perhaps too easy. Vegas seems awfully confident Minnesota will avoid disaster on Sunday to keep themselves in the chase for an NFC North title. Division games tend to be close, and Justin Fields has to look at least a little bit better, right? The odds of either Kirk Cousins underperforming or Fields overperforming seems higher than 50%.

The Pick: Bears +7.5 (+100)

No game has more potential to unravel before the third commercial break than Steelers-Bills. The Kenny Pickett era has begun. Winning by two touchdowns is still a tough task, and with the playmakers Pittsburgh has at their disposal, there’s reason to believe in this offense, or at least its floor. If they can contain Stefon Diggs, this may not be the routing Vegas projects.

The Pick: Steelers +14 (-110)

Fade. The. Public. Approximately 80% of the public is taking the Tennessee Titans in some fashion. Their donations to the books will be greatly appreciated. I’m trusting Carson Wentz, possibly for the last time, to get it done and deliver the Commanders to the purgatory they seem destined to. Also, Brian Robinson Jr. is back after a miraculous gunshot recovery. They’ll be sure to put him on display, especially in the red zone. 

The Pick: Commanders Pick ‘Em (-105), Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime TD (+360)

Bill Belichick. He’s the reason the New England Patriots are favored. Who else would be given minus odds to win with a rookie, third-string quarterback under center. Unfortunately, I’m not sure if I buy it. New England’s supporting cast hasn’t been great this year, and the Detroit offense actually looks good. Now healthy, I expect them to put points on the board, and as long as their defense isn’t as abysmal, it should result in yet another underdog cover for the Lions.

The Pick: Lions +3 (+105)

Welcome to the ugliest game of Week 5. Don’t let Washington-Tennessee fool you. The universe’s karmic assault of the Los Angeles Chargers is always just a play away. This week, their pain may be delivered in a form packaged just like running back Nick Chubb. This run defense is still horrible. Chubb is still really good. You picking up what I’m putting down?

The Pick: Browns +1 (-105), Nick Chubb O 90.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

What are the best bets from the late afternoon slate?

The Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive line is better than the Arizona Cardinals’. Their defense is better. Their receivers are better. Is their quarterback? Week 5 is yet another referendum on Jalen Hurts’ development. The passers may not be the difference makers though. Kliff Kingsbury is going to get thoroughly out-coached on Sunday. 

The Pick: Eagles -5.5 (-110)

As much potential as there is for this one to get ugly, the total score wager of 39.5 signifies this probably won’t be the blowout fans are expecting. Is Baker Mayfield going to get cooked? Probably. However, as long as Jimmy Garoppolo is their starting quarterback, the 49ers will remain a risk to underperform against bad teams. Even a Garoppolo implosion doesn’t guarantee a Panthers win, though. Trust the talent in this one.

The Pick: 49ers -6.5 (-110), 49ers Moneyline (-292)

So, Dak Prescott isn’t back yet. Bummer. The Cooper Rush experience lives on with its toughest task yet: the reigning Super Bowl champions. Conversely, the Los Angeles Rams are showing folks why it’s so damn hard to repeat. Matthew Stafford hasn’t set the league on fire and the offensive line is a mess. Certified game-wrecker Micah Parsons is licking his chops in anticipation. Expect him to see extra attention while Demarcus Lawrence eats. 

The Pick: Cowboys -5.5 (-110)

Who will cover during the primetime games?

Remember Joe Burrow against the Baltimore Ravens last year? Me too. Burrow is on the verge of buying the Ravens and becoming majority owner, and a win Sunday night goes a long way. Employees working the fireworks machines may be paid overtime if the quarterback matchup lives up to the billing. Given just over a field goal, I like Cincinnati to keep things close due to slight game plan improvements and an ability to remain unphased on the road.

The Pick: Bengals +3.5 (-120)

Patrick Mahomes. Divisional opponent. Game over. He is almost undefeated throughout his career within the division. The Las Vegas Raiders are a bad football team. Sometimes, things don’t have to be that complicated. 

The Pick: Chiefs -7 (-115), Chiefs Moneyline (-345)

BASIC TIPS

When placing a straight bet, such as 49ers -6.5, you are betting on a singular event. The picks provided in this piece were mostly against the spread selections. In the aforementioned 49ers wager, San Francisco has to win by seven or more in order to “cover” and win your bet. If they win by less than seven or lose outright, Panthers +6.5 would hit. These often have odds around -110, implying that they are essentially a 50/50 shot. When betting against the spread, winning anything greater than 52-54% of the time should be profitable.

author
Anthony Licciardi
Sports Journalist
Anthony Licciardi is a long-suffering fan of the New York Mets, Jets, and Knicks. He aims to build a smarter generation of sports fans and writes to distract himself from the daily happenings of his favorite teams. In his spare time, he’s knee deep in Google Sheets looking for some statistical edge on coming betting action. With former bylines at Pro Football Network, Cowboys Wire, and Around The Block Network, Anthony has experience wri
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