I can’t stop finding reasons to buy the Minnesota Vikings in 2022. After an underwhelming 8-9 campaign, head coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman were fired. Ownership was tired of mediocrity and made it clear a full rebuild was not an option. Seemingly, they saw the Sisyphus simulators below them in the division and felt competing for a division title was still the best option.
Enter head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. The new administration was tasked with building a winner, and so far, they are well-positioned to deliver on that promise.
We as a football community tend to underrate quarterbacks deemed incapable of winning a Super Bowl. Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, and others tend to get written off because they are “win with” quarterbacks instead of “win because of” passers. We forget that if the team around them is good enough and things break the right way, the former archetype can still win big. They’re like a nice dish of chicken cutlets. Nothing special, but with good enough side dishes, you still leave the table very satisfied.
It’s not an optimal strategy by any means, but Minnesota may have the roster to make it work.
Just how good is the Vikings’ roster?
It’s impossible to look at the purple and gold and not salivate at their weaponry. Adam Thielen continues to persist as one of the top no. 2 targets in football. Irv Smith Jr. has received hype as a breakout tight end candidate. Of course, Justin Jefferson, arguably the best wide receiver in football, stands out. Throwing in the skills of Dalvin Cook makes Minnesota incredibly difficult to defend. Some receivers are just uncoverable; Jefferson is one of them.
If this was 365 days ago, I’d warn you that the offensive line is a legitimate issue. That’s no longer the case. Brian O’Neill has blossomed into an exceptional right tackle and Ezra Cleveland looked good inside. Overall, they were 3rd in Adjusted Sack Rate, per Football Outsiders. It’s easy to overwhelm a less-than-lethal playmaker if you can dominate the trenches, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards for Vikings’ opponents.
Furthermore, the new sheriff in town hails from one of the most innovative offenses in the league. O’Connell will have Cousins throwing more and should put those aforementioned weapons in the best possible chance to succeed. Of course, we cannot assume that any given coaching change will be a positive one, but it’s hard not to get excited.
The Vikings defense performed admirably given the cast of corners they trotted out onto the field each Sunday. Now, the secondary has been revitalized with potential stars Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth Jr. Without the threat of a relentless aerial attack, Vikings fans can breathe easy and let their front seven, which now includes Za’Darius Smith, do its job.
As long as Aaron Rodgers is in a separate area code, Minnesota can avoid a state of emergency. Beating him and those hated Green Bay Packers will be the litmus test for how legit this Vikings squad is.
Minnesota through a betting lens
Win totals are known for the doubts they instill in bettors. It’s rare for the books to give us generous lines or odds when they consistently nail the range of outcomes. The 2022 Vikings are no different. Set at 9.5 wins virtually everywhere, it becomes a matter of optimism. It seems like everyone has this team at either nine or ten wins. Those lower on the defense may be able to envision a 7-10 or 8-9 season. Fans of Cousins may taste an 11-6 campaign. This wager is truly a pick-your-flavor wager. I’d recommend the over.
Part of my optimism is sourced from the marriage between O’Connell and Cousins. It would be disingenuous to inflate Cousins into this bonafide top 10 passer held back by his teammates. However, the new regime gives me hope. He’ll likely be throwing it around more often and there are rumors of Jefferson being featured in a Cooper Kupp-like role. I like DraftKings’ -110 odds on him clearing 31.5 passing touchdowns amidst the O’Connell honeymoon.
Likewise, a strong year from Cousins is both aided by and supports a big year from Jefferson. Last year, 10 receivers broke the 100-catch barrier. Jefferson himself had 108. DraftKings has his receptions total at 102.5, with -115 odds on the over. It’s a high bar for a high-level talent and one I don’t mind putting a unit on.
This defense has a lot of potential, and the books have factored this in. Thankfully, this opens up a window for the under. DraftKings has set Danielle Hunter’s sack line at 11.25 (-120 odds on the under). Personally, this sticks out like an Irishman at the beach. Hunter is the second-best pass rusher on his own team and a far cry from the healthy star he was earlier in his career. Sacks are not as sticky as we’d like them to be and although he’s put up gaudy numbers before, a lot has to break his way for that number to hit. I’m very comfortable taking the under on this one.
While he doesn’t have much of a shot at the award (+2500 on DraftKings), Booth is certainly a contender to be the Viking’s Defensive Rookie of the Year. He’s smooth, athletically, technically sound, and big enough to compete with receivers of all shapes and sizes. A good rookie year from Booth will be important in solidifying Minnesota’s secondary.
The BetBasics Best Bet for the Vikings is simply a wager on them to make the playoffs. The NFC East doesn’t look to be a powerhouse and the NFC West could beat itself up. Given their projection, they should be in the mix for a wildcard at worst. DraftKings has them at -115 to make the late January dance.
The Vikings made the conscious choice to re-tool, not rebuild. With a much-improved defense and an exciting coaching staff, the pieces are falling into place for a fun season in Minnesota. It’s time to put those big boy pants on and challenge the Packers for the NFC North crown.