Today marks day five of the Bet Basics Advent Calendar. Yesterday, our receiving props hit a bump in the road, like that time your grandma bought you the bootleg version of your favorite video game. At least our intentions were good, right?
Terry McLaurin’s wager hit, while Christian Watson came a single yard short and Tyler Conklin saw his fellow tight end surpass the line projected for him. George Pickens did his best impression of the grinch on his way to a one-catch, two-yard performance.
For #NFLWeek13’s Monday Night Football action, we return to FanDuel and the wide receiver position. If you haven’t already, be sure to utilize their promotion for Bet Basics readers: UP TO $1,000 BACK IN BONUS BETS.
Day 5 – Touchdown Regression
Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans has epitomized consistency throughout his first eight seasons. The former first-round pick has hit the 1,000-yard mark each time and has never fallen below 67 receptions in a given year. He’s been a mainstay in the Tampa passing attack regardless of coach or quarterback.
Evans has also caught at least eight touchdowns six times in eight seasons. Now in year nine, he has six games to make things right. The Texas A&M product has a mere three scores so far this season, his lowest total since 2015.
Generally speaking, good players are bound to score touchdowns. He may not hit 14 like he did last year–or 13 from 2020–but to see such a low touchdown total is jarring. Sure the Buccaneers offense hasn’t been as productive, and there are many mouths to feed, but this is one of the league’s premier red zone threats.
Mortal enemy Marshon Lattimore is sitting this one out, barring a Christmas miracle in the minutes before kickoff 🥊. Without the looming threat of suspension and an elite corner shadowing him, expect Evans to find the end zone in Week 13.
Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180)
Moreover, Chris Godwin is a victim of poor touchdown luck, too. It took him until Week 10 to find paydirt, despite only missing two weeks of action and seeing 65 targets in that span.
Of course, beckoning touchdown regression requires more than just thinking a player is good and witnessing a touchdown drought. Godwin, who at one point this season was the face of touchdown regression at the wide receiver position, has scored in back-to-back games. There’s no overarching statistical theory pleading his case anymore.
Still, Godwin is earning targets at an exceptional rate. He caught 12 of 13 last week in the Buccaneers’ loss, and has seen more than 10 targets in six of his last eight contests. Tom Brady will look Godwin’s way.
In doing so, he’ll likely see Godwin in position to succeed. Unsurprisingly, his best games have come against some of the worst secondaries he’s faced this year: Cleveland, Seattle, and Pittsburgh. With Lattimore in street clothes and the New Orleans Saints struggling mightily against the pass in neutral game scripts, he’ll once again get to eat against a subpar secondary.
His +180 odds to score would win $180 on a $100 bet if successful. If you’re feeling (f)risky, combining the two selections into a parlay would net a more lucrative +589 ticket. 💸
I’d be surprised if neither found the end zone tonight, so I’m confident placing a unit on each. If one hits, your Monday Night Football will prove profitable. If both score, you’ll have room to stuff stockings even more.