Baker MayfieldBrian BurnsChristian McCaffreyDJ Moore

Does chaos benefit the bettor in Carolina?

With mere months until the NFL season, the Carolina Panthers found themselves without a quarterback. Sam Darnold stinks. Cam Newton came back for Old-Timer’s Day, an act of fan service in a wasted year. PJ Walker is a nice story and decidedly not a nice quarterback.

 

They made the long-awaited move for Baker Mayfield, the harbinger of chaos. Now there’s only one thing left to do: bask in it.

 

Carolina will be consumed by the chaos

 

Dread it. Run from it. Destiny still arrives. 

 

Mayfield won’t start 17 games this season. He’s finally healthy and primed for a comeback player of the year campaign, but the story is too simple. Whether it be a twisted ankle, a fight with a teammate (shoutout Geno Smith), or divine intervention itself, something will get in the way.

 

The media spectacle that follows Mayfield follows a pattern that we’ve all seen whether we realize it or not. He plays poorly, faces criticism, plays better, receives praise, and returns back to phase one. There’s something about being the underdog that gives him his powers, and something about playing good football that never seems to last.

 

Jokes aside, Mayfield is the biggest change Carolina has going for them right now. If he’s healthy, he should be a middle-of-the-pack starter that they’ve missed since Newton passed through on his way from stardom to sexist. Subsequently, he’ll do wonders for DJ Moore and may keep Robbie Anderson sane. 

 

A healthy Christian McCaffrey also improves an offense that wound up 5-12 in 2021. Ikem Ekwonu brings an exciting bright spot to the offensive line. On defense, acquiring Matt Ioannidis and welcoming back a recovered Jaycee Horn keeps the defense afloat. 

 

There’s legitimate talent on the defensive side of the football. The defensive line consists of a star edge rusher and a deep group of interior linemen. There’s upside, athleticism, and versatility in their secondary, too. It isn’t difficult to talk oneself into believing in a Panthers team as a potential seventh seed. A good pass defense and barely adequate quarterback play always finds its way into the playoffs, and this year’s Panthers team could fit the bill.

 

The biggest obstacle in their way is a relatable one: management. Head coach Matt Rhule made Joe Brady a scapegoat before bringing in Ben McAdoo for the 2022 season. Quickly, this regime has shown to be incompetent, and Rhule’s management/delegation have left a bad taste in too many mouths. 

 

We can project Mayfield to be fine, but a less-than-stellar roster and coaches coaching for their jobs is far from an ideal combination. Can they withstand and make an improbable playoff push?

 

Carolina through a betting lens

 

Betting isn’t always easy. Las Vegas didn’t take this one easy on us, placing their win total at 6.5. With a difficult schedule and poor coaching, there’s a legitimate path to a top draft pick. Yet, it’s all too easy to find seven or eight wins by January. Mayfield should be fine and the roster, while imperfect, is good enough to compete. I’d bank on a pissed off Mayfield to deliver on the over.

 

Speaking of Mr. Mayfield, there’s little doubt he’s the most important player in the organization. His talents can bring them the seventh seed or the seventh pick, and the most likely scenario seems to be smack dab in between the two. DraftKings is offering an interesting +380 team special that requires his talents. To win, Baker would need to rush for at least three touchdowns and Moore would have to hit 1,000 yards.

 

Part of what makes Mayfield’s ground game so easy to buy into is the return of McCaffrey. The volume will be astronomical. However, we could see some tendency breakers in the red zone. We know how teams stack the box against Derrick Henry at the goal line (take the over on Tannehill rushing TDs). Expect the same in Carolina, opening those windows. Also, McCaffrey is +750 to win Comeback Player of the Year. If he outperforms the aforementioned Henry, he’ll be the frontrunner. 

 

On the other side of the ball, Brian Burns is an easy guy to root for and an even easier guy to bet on. A 10-sack season would cash the over DraftKings set for him. With the Panthers’ interior pass rush, the incredible talent of Burns will have more opportunities to create splash plays. I’d recommend the +100 odds

 

Ekwonu might be the most pivotal rookie in the country. He’s awesome and at a position of need for a team unsure of its playoff hopes. Just do me a favor and don’t bet on him (or any other Panthers rookie) to win their respective rookie of the year award. It just isn’t in the cards this year. Take the money you’d be willing to place on Ekwonu’s +10000 odds and do something nice for someone else for a change.

 

The BetBasics Best Bet differs greatly from the wager listed above. In fact, it might be the best totals bet available. Caesars Sportsbook is offering -110 odds on Moore to clear 4.5 receiving touchdowns. It’s never happened before and some are convinced it may never happen, but let me offer you hope. Moore has never played with a quarterback more friendly to his game. There will be passing volume and enough red zone targets to go around. This will be the year his touchdown prop hits. 

 

As the new year’s dawn is upon us, many things remain unclear. The future of the Panthers is one of them. You can make the argument that Carolina was wrong to deal for Mayfield, a move bringing them closer to the quicksand of mediocrity.

 

For the rest of us, though, there’s no better spot. Chaos will reign, especially Week 1. A revenge game in his Panthers debut will only be the beginning of what looks to be a fascinating season. Make sure there’s some profit amidst the pandemonium.

author
Anthony Licciardi
Sports Journalist
Anthony Licciardi is a long-suffering fan of the New York Mets, Jets, and Knicks. He aims to build a smarter generation of sports fans and writes to distract himself from the daily happenings of his favorite teams. In his spare time, he’s knee deep in Google Sheets looking for some statistical edge on coming betting action. With former bylines at Pro Football Network, Cowboys Wire, and Around The Block Network, Anthony has experience wri
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