Life in the NFL is fragile at best. So much of each season comes down to sheer luck, whether a team can avoid major injuries en route to the Super Bowl. For the Buffalo Bills, that was just about the only thing standing in their way. Suddenly, entering Week 10, injuries that were already piling up to begin with just became a lot worse.
Just past the halfway point of the 2022 season, there are questions that demand answers regarding the health of quarterback Josh Allen. According to reports, Allen suffered a sprained ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow. The sprain has also been called a minor tear by reporters, but the injury remains the same. Allen’s status for Sunday is in doubt, as the star quarterback didn’t practice Wednesday.
However, it is said that he could miss a week at most, then return while still playing through injury. With that in mind, how does Allen’s elbow shift the AFC East, the AFC, and the Super Bowl race this season? That’s the million dollar question, but we are not doctors, merely sports bettors. In the wake of the elbow injury, where should you put your money in the market?
Who is the Bills backup quarterback?
Funny you should ask. In the event that Allen misses time, check out our backup breakdown on Case Keenum by clicking here, but first, let’s check out potential worthwhile bets.
The AFC East division race heats up
As of right now, there is only one division with all four teams possessing winning records. The AFC East. Draftkings lists the Dolphins at +450 to win the division and the Jets at +1800. Both of them have already defeated the Bills while being tied with records of 6-3. BetRivers puts the Patriots at +2000.
These wagers are considered futures bets. A futures bet is when you’re betting on a season-long outcome, so the bet will not win or lose until the regular season comes to a close. +450, for example, means that a $100 bet on the Dolphins would return an additional $450 if the Dolphins capture the AFC East crown.
If Allen’s injury lingers or gets worse over time, especially as the weather gets colder, Buffalo’s season could be in danger. Over the last two weeks, he has thrown four interceptions while being unable to surpass 220 passing yards in either game. To make matters worse, his completion percentage has plummeted to around the 50% mark. The Bills offense suddenly coming back down to earth, especially against the Packers, is not instilling much confidence either. And with injuries taking a toll on the team’s defense, it’s hard to find a lot of value in a team that is currently pegged as a -275 division favorite on Caesars.
Miami currently has the easiest remaining strength of schedule (.500) in the division and is undefeated this season when Tua Tagovailoa finishes the game. The defense in South Florida leaves quite a bit to be desired, but keeping up with the Dolphins’ track team on offense allows them to win every game they play.
The Jets, who we have been praising all season long, have arguably the best defense in the league and with a star studded secondary, can win any game they play. Of course the quarterback, Zach Wilson, will have a major say in whether the team can truly compete, but it’s hard to discount a team that just held Buffalo to three points in a half while making Allen look average at best. There are certainly growing pains for the young team, but it’s one that has a lot of similarities with a group like the Bengals that made a surprising run last season.
With that in mind, consider both of those teams to be worthwhile dart throws.
What is Josh Allen’s status for Week 10?
As rumors swirl that he is likely to miss the Week 10 game against the Vikings, the spread has dropped to the Bills only being favored by about 3.5 points. That seems to be a great indicator of the expected absence, just like missing practice on Wednesday.
Going forward, monitor Allen’s status and potentially look to bet the under on passing yard totals until further notice. We saw that one play after the suspected injury occurred that he spiked a ball into the ground on an attempted pass to Stefon Diggs.
Regardless of what happens, Allen’s elbow might have changed the course of the entire 2022 NFL season and we should act accordingly before the market corrects itself.