Our collective sanities would improve if the NFL consisted of 31 teams. Sure, the conferences would be uneven and there would be logistical concerns. I’m not quite sure how the schedule would work out. But at least we wouldn’t have to talk about these god-forsaken San Francisco 49ers ever again.
This team has so many fun players. Trent Williams has long been an elite left tackle capable of carrying a rushing attack. Deebo Samuel forged out a new role for himself, hated it, and re-signed into that same exact situation in a six-month span. George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk are the best at their positions and have more fun than anyone else while doing so. Fred Warner is the best linebacker in football and the human embodiment of Tampa 2.
And yet, all we can talk about are the quarterbacks.
The discourse is unbearable
First, Jimmy Garoppolo was a game manager who couldn’t return a Lombardi Trophy to the Bay Area. Then he had a few bad games and half of Twitter decided he should never be allowed to throw a football again. The other half is only capable of viewing things in the banality of wins and losses and has sentenced us to 10 years of outdated football takes.
Oh, and that Trey Lance kid? The internet has led me to believe that he’s the second coming. His detractors would tell you that each missed throw in practice is an indictment on his football acumen and his throwing motion resembles Walter Johnson more than Joe Montana.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan has made his bed, promptly defecated in it, and has now chosen to lie there.
San Francisco has chosen to keep Garoppolo on the roster, keeping his contract on the books and the pressure on his neophyte. Every single throw will be scrutinized. Every turnover shared on social media; every loss talked about on the radio. If Lance is not perfect, the Garoppolo whispers will persist.
Naturally, everybody is missing the point. Shanahan hand-picked Lance because he believes he can do what Garoppolo can’t: win a Super Bowl. That doesn’t mean it has to happen in 2022. Lance is intriguing because of his upside, and with sizable upside often comes legitimate risk.
Lance is the antithesis to Garoppolo. He stretches the field effortlessly, makes plays out of structure, and opens a diverse portfolio of rushes for Shanahan to sift through. Still, he’s young, raw, and unbeknownst to many, human.
It doesn’t matter who gives San Francisco the best chance to win in September. What matters is figuring out if Lance can eventually win the game that matters in February. That’s impossible if Garoppolo is the one taking snaps.
Following a 10-7 season, Shanahan and the 49ers have effectively polarized their range of outcomes. Will they hit that total again in 2022?
San Francisco through a betting lens
Conveniently enough, that 10-win mark is about where the books have the 49ers listed. If you’re willing to accept a push, Caesars Sportsbook is offering -110 odds on either side of 10. If not, PointsBet (-170 under 10.5, +140 over) or FanDuel (+135 under 9.5) will give you half of a game. While I do love a roster with both elite players and a high floor, the under deserves consideration.
Playing quarterback is hard, and it isn’t out of the question that they start off 4-2 before entering a stretch of the Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, Cardinals, Saints, Dolphins, and Buccaneers. Losing any game they are favored in before that mid-season test can sink the over. History is on the side of Lance not being a superstar from the jump, and his inconsistencies can stunt an otherwise talented roster. Not to mention, the division is fairly difficult, too. FanDuel’s under 9.5 is good value if you’re willing to give up the 10-win push.
With that said, I’m one of those aforementioned individuals that loves Lance’s game. He’s in a perfect schematic fit, there are talented playmakers around him, and he has all the tools in the world. His second half against Houston last year was emblematic of the ceiling of San Francisco’s next era.
PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM are all offering +3000 odds on Lance to take home MVP. Those long odds are not without good reason, but it’s a narrative award and we’ve seen explosive young quarterbacks take it home fairly recently.
Samuel has +1200 odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year via DraftKings, which is well-deserved, but probably inflated due to impending touchdown regression. I’d be more inclined to place money on their +300 odds for Kittle to lead NFC tight ends in receiving yards. He’ll only have to fight off Kyle Pitts and Dalton Schultz. Kittle is integral to the offense due to his skills at and after the catch point and as a blocker. He’ll be rewarded with plenty of targets.
Elsewhere, BetMGM has Nick Bosa at +1400 to win Defensive Player of the Year. It’s a fair line given Bosa’s talent and the award’s tendency to go to a pass rusher. He’ll have to jump some truly elite talents in front of him, so give pause. Still, he’s an incredible player and does wonders for their four-man front.
The edge rusher opposite Bosa has been a question mark for San Francisco. They addressed it in the second round with USC edge rusher Drake Jackson. He was productive in the Pac-12 and gives the 49ers a chance to put together a high-upside pass rush. At +3000 (DraftKings), there are obstacles in his path, but if he blossoms into his class’ best rookie edge rusher, the award is likely his.
The BetBasics Best Bet is taking the over on Lance’s 21.5 passing touchdown prop (-115 on Caesars Sportsbook). Elijah Mitchell shouldn’t scare you off of this bet. Every quarterback has to deal with running backs taking touchdowns away, but every quarterback worth their salt should clear that mark. Lance’s biggest competition here is himself, as his rushing ability likely takes a few passing touchdowns away. Still, with an improved downfield attack and an above-average offense, Lance hitting nearly guarantees this prop becomes profitable.
It’s too early to tell if San Francisco has struck gold with their second-year passer, but finding out what Lance is has to be prioritized. Going back to Garoppolo in an ill-advised attempt at getting into the playoffs is an admission that Lance never should’ve been taken third overall.
I’m looking forward to the end of this year, where we’ll have more answers as to what Lance is and how his potential shapes the 49ers window. Until then, I’m done talking about the 49ers.