Since the start of school is officially upon us, let’s have a little science lesson. Open your textbooks and let’s learn about the food chain.
Well maybe the “food chain” idea is a bit outdated since the ecosystem is a bit more complex than that, so we should really work with a food web instead.
Having fun yet? I thought so.
Now the point I’m trying to make is that the lion, the Detroit Lions, the supposed “Kings of the Jungle,” have been far from that in recent memory. Instead of feasting on opponents, they’ve been more cowardly, like something straight out of “The Wizard of Oz.”
Well, all of that changed last year. The carnivorous Lions suddenly shifted their diet to only NFL players’ kneecaps, or so they intended. We can’t really blame them either. The legs have always been the best part of a chicken or turkey dinner.
They went mostly hungry in 2021, but the fight was there as the basement dwellers finally started climbing the stairs again.
And all of that is thanks to the heavily caffeinated Lord Kneecap himself, head coach Dan Campbell.
If you aren’t familiar with this NFL folk hero, watch his introductory press conference and one episode of “Hard Knocks” on HBO. You’ll catch on quickly. Kind of like how the league will soon realize that these Lions are no longer a team run by actual rocket scientist Matt Patricia, thanks to Campbell and emerging star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Can St. Brown duplicate a surprisingly great rookie campaign?
When the Lions drafted the former USC man in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, odds are they didn’t expect the type of production that the rookie receiver provided.
The “Hard Knocks” star was certainly motivated by the “112th pick” label. Don’t believe me? He proved on the show that he can name all 16 receivers taken in front of him last year. Now last year’s draft was filled with high quality receiving talent, so surely some would slip through the cracks.
Luckily for the Lions, St. Brown was there for the taking.
But perhaps the most encouraging sign for the son of a two-time Mr. Universe was how he finished the season. After recording only 39 receptions and 352 receiving yards with no touchdowns through his first 11 games as a pro, St. Brown went on a tear through the last six.
Some may say that it’s cherry-picking stats to prove a point, but in the NFL it’s always, “What have you done for me lately?”
Over those last six games, St. Brown posted 51 receptions, 560 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. He was targeted at least 10 times in each game, after not eclipsing the double digit mark in any of the first 11.
In total, St. Brown turned in a great rookie season, finishing with 90 catches, 912 receiving yards, both Lions rookie records, and five touchdowns. He did all of that with a catch rate of 75.6%, which ranked fourth in the league amongst players with at least 80 catches.
There’s no reason why he can’t replicate or come close to last season’s totals, especially since concerns of a sophomore slump appear to be fading. St. Brown’s work ethic was on full display during the HBO series and that should excite bettors and fantasy managers.
New offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has already spoken about how impressed he is with his young receiver aiming to improve his yards after catch (YAC) ability this year.
With St. Brown already posting a 84.9% catchable target rate in 2021, improving his YAC could be a scary sight for defenders.
Bet on it
There isn’t much that can stop St. Brown this season, so it seems like a good idea to bet on exactly that. Let’s take a quick tour around the sportsbooks in search of some beautiful profit opportunities.
We start at FanDuel Sportsbook where they are giving us the lovely line of 850.5 season long receiving yards, priced at -112. After finishing with 912 yards for the season, most of which came in the last six games, this bet is an absolute hammer spot. The Lions might be improved, but they are still going to be trailing a lot, meaning tons of opportunity for our guy St. Brown.
What else does that opportunity bring? Receptions, receptions, and more, you guessed it, receptions. FanDuel is also giving us a favorable here line priced at -112. The over 77.5 receptions is a full catch lower than the line on DraftKings and even has the better price.
Finally we take our money over to Caesar’s because they are practically giving away money. Sometimes you just have to wonder if the sportsbooks really are just generous companies trying to make the world a better place.
Caesar’s is offering a line of 4.5 receiving touchdowns, priced at -115, while FanDuel and DraftKings are instead posting 5.5. So essentially, Caesar’s is giving us a season long opportunity for St. Brown to replicate his final six games from last season. In reality, winning money shouldn’t be this easy, but that’s what we are here for.
If you too like having some extra cash, head on over to our Top Sportsbooks page so you can sign up and get in on the action. Maybe after St. Brown makes us all rich, we can buy a jersey to say thanks.