Nick’s Picks: Don’t Sweat Steelers-Browns, Longshot TD Parlay

Pat Freiermuth
Amari CooperChase ClaypoolDavid NjokuGeorge PickensPat Freiermuth

Week 3 is already upon us and FanDuel is back with another “No Sweat” same game parlay (SGP) wager for Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime. Last week our SGP didn’t hit, but the night was saved thanks to DraftKings early payout promotion. For those that tailed our Garrett Wilson anytime touchdown scorer bet, Week 2 turned out to be an extremely profitable experience. 

But that was last week and you know what they say, right? New week, new money, new opportunity. Although, there’s a good chance that’s never been said before, so maybe we just coined a new phrase too. 

Regardless, it’s almost time for Thursday Night Football and Amazon couldn’t wait to reward its paying customers with a real barnburner tonight because we all know that paying actual currency for a Mitch Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett showdown is definitely worth it. 

As the Steelers renew their rivalry with the Browns in Cleveland, we will renew ours with the sportsbooks. 

“May the odds ever be in your favor.”

Steelers +4.5

With strong winds expected tonight in Cleveland, it makes sense to start off with picking a side. Betting the game to go under has been a hot bet to this point, bringing the total down to now 37.5 at the time of this writing. Instead, we’ll pivot to getting the points with Pittsburgh on the road as both teams are reeling from tough losses on Sunday. Trubisky might not inspire confidence, but this is more of a bet on a Mike Tomlin coached team than anything else. He’ll put his 20-6-2 record against the spread as an underdog in the AFC North to the test in Cleveland. This game has Steelers win or Browns 20-17 win written all over it, take the points. 

Pat Freiermuth OVER 32.5 receiving yards

The logic for this one is simple: bad quarterbacks love throwing to tight ends, and Trubisky can’t get enough of Pat Freiermuth. The Steelers tight end is getting nearly a 25% target share, second on the team to only Diontae Johnson. Trubisky is looking his way and doing so often, so getting at least 33 receiving yards doesn’t seem to be a big ask. In Week 1 against the Bengals, Freiermuth collected five receptions on 10 targets, for 75 yards. In Week 2 against New England, he hauled in four of seven targets for 22 yards and found the end zone once. The opportunity is there and with less than ideal weather conditions on tap, expect the gunshy Trubisky to keep things even closer to the line of scrimmage than usual. 

Chase Claypool UNDER 35.5 receiving yards

As we said last week, crafting a SGP is all about creating a game narrative. This week is all about the weather and bad quarterback play. It was hard to not put George Pickens’ over 25.5 receiving yard total here, but most of the country seems to be in on that play, which usually isn’t a good sign. Instead, we’ll look to Chase Claypool to stay under his total, much like he has in the five of the last seven games he’s played, including the playoffs. 

Claypool would need Trubisky to get the ball downfield more and Pickens seems likely to be the beneficiary after last week’s comments. As it stands right now, Claypool’s average depth of target is about 5.9 yards, which means most of his yardage will have to come after the catch. Expect the Browns defense to try and force some more of those long throws that make Trubisky uncomfortable, but they’ll be reserved for Johnson, Pickens, and Freiermuth. 

Amari Cooper OVER 46.5 receiving yards

Kevin Stefanski’s offense got Amari Cooper much more involved Sunday against the Jets and expect that to continue with the Steelers secondary coming to town. Through the first two weeks, the Steelers defense has gifted the opposition the middle of the field, allowing Ja’Marr Chase to go off for 126 receiving yards in Week 1 and then the Patriots duo of Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers to turn in 205 of their own on Sunday. With Cooper getting more looks, 10 targets in Week 2, and about a 10.8 yard depth of target, he is a solid bet to go over this total in Week 3 under the lights. 

What does it pay?

It’s always fun to kick off the week with a longshot and this SGP on FanDuel pays +1144, meaning a $100 bet returns $1,244 to your bank account. Don’t forget to opt in before placing your wager, and also check to see what your max bet is. Now that the sweat-free bet is out of the way, here’s another longshot to sprinkle on. 

Who scores in Steelers-Browns?

We kept George Pickens out of the parlay in an effort to fade the public, but he must be on our betting card somewhere tonight. He is +550 to score on DraftKings and we will play that straight and then head back over to FanDuel for the Longshot Parlay of the Night.

Despite having only five targets on the year, Pickens should see some action tonight after he basically called out Trubisky following Sunday’s loss. Expect him to get looks in the red zone and throughout the night. On the Cleveland side of things, David Njoku is another tight end that should get his fair share of targets. He was targeted twice in the red zone last week, but failed to score. Brissett will be looking Njoku’s way with an almost 29% target share inside the 20 yard line this year. He is +430 to score and a parlay with Pickens who is +490 on FanDuel, pays out at +2452. 

While everyone throws their hard earned cash down on Nick Chubb, we can profit with some longshots, who seem to typically rule Thursday Night Football anyway. 

If you don’t have a FanDuel account, be sure to use our signup link and get in on the action. Enjoy the game and always remember to bet responsibly.