NFL Week 12

Nick’s Picks NFL Week 12: Time for some good old fashioned home cooking

Thanksgiving is in the rearview mirror now, which means the race to the finish is officially on. Hopefully you had a great holiday, if you celebrate, which was spent with some quality family time, good eating, and big profits. 

It’s been a great week in sports, which was made even better by officially deciding the “world’s game” will be now known worldwide as ‘soccer’, thanks to the United States Men’s National Team securing a dominating draw against England, who was lucky to even get a result. So we not only dumped their tea in the harbor, but beat them in a war, and essentially did the same thing to them in their own sport. This is all while star English striker Harry Kane talks about his obsession with American football and fandom of Tom Brady. Yet, they still came back for more. You think they’d learn by now. 

Regardless, in a great week for fans of America, it’s only natural that we focus on what these last few days have been all about. Being at home with family and friends, while consuming endless amounts of some good old fashioned home cooking. So naturally as we flip the page to the weekend action of Week 12, it only makes sense to back some of the home teams, for some good old fashioned home cooking of our own. Let’s just hope our betslips are heating up just as nicely as those leftovers. After all, we turned in a 8-4-1 record in Week 11, bringing the season total to 71-58-8, meaning we might just have the right recipe. 

**All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook**

 

 

Early Window Profits

Are you impressed with the Ravens thus far? Yeah, me neither. Their offense is anemic, but the defense keeps them in games. On the other side, Doug Pederson’s Jaguars consistently find ways to have a lead, only to then blow it later on. With that in mind, we take the points with the home underdog. It’s long past time for Lamar Jackson’s team to wake up, but we doubt it comes Sunday in the Florida sun.

Picking the Jaguars +3.5 means that we are betting on them to either win the game or lose by no more than three points. The best way to approach this bet is to pretend that the Jaguars are leading 3.5-0 before the game even kicks off. 

The Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-105)

Let’s just say that if you are a fan of NFL RedZone, then you won’t be seeing much of this game. Can the Broncos or Panthers even combine for 10 points, let alone each get there themselves? Sam Darnold makes his return to the Carolina starting lineup as the quarterback carousel continues to turn. Both defenses should dominate, but Russell Wilson will probably have more freedom on his side than Darnold, meaning we are much more likely to see the Denver QB make the costly mistake. Take the points. 

Betting the Panthers at a price of -110 is considered the standard offering from sportsbooks on this type of bet. Much like the Jaguars pick, the Panthers must win or lose by no more than one point. If you wanted to bet this pick, you would need to wager $110 to win another $100. 

The Pick: Panthers +1.5 (-110)

If you’re not entirely sure how we got here then pull up a chair and stay a while. Welcome to the club. We are now officially past Thanksgiving and these two teams, led by Taylor Heinicke and Marcus Mariota, are in the midst of a playoff chase. Odds are, no one had this one circled on their calendar just a few weeks ago, but here we are. The Falcons are certainly a great story, but there is some Heincike magic going on right now and there’s no way I’m getting in the way of that. The Washington Commanders (!!) keep on winning. 

The Pick: Commanders -3.5 (-115)

Did Tom Brady and the Buccaneers find themselves in Germany? Whether they did or not, Tampa gets a fairly nice landing spot regardless, with the Cleveland Browns, who are still very bad. Brady seemed like a motivated guy in Munich, like someone who’s had a bad few months and needed a vacation to get his swagger back. Because of that, this one is easy. Back the Bucs. 

The Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 (-104)

We talked about it earlier this week how the Titans deserve some respect. The sportsbooks responded by making the Titans home underdogs, which is just flat out disrespectful. While that continues for the foreseeable future, we’ll just keep profiting off the lack of awareness from the oddsmakers. 

The Pick: Titans +1 (-110)

It would be hilarious if the Texans found a way to win this game after deciding to start Kyle Allen. Even with a win, they essentially have April’s top pick in the NFL Draft solidified. However, we like to live in reality and the reality is that the Dolphins might start resting the starters by halftime. This Miami offense is a buzzsaw and incredibly fun to watch. Say a prayer for the Texans on Sunday. They’ll need it. Miami wins in a rout. 

The Pick: Dolphins -14 (-115)

Come on. Seriously? The oddsmakers had enough of us profiting off the Jets this season, that’s for sure. Sure, Justin Fields is hurt and the Bears might start Trevor Siemian. Zach Wilson was benched and Mike White is starting for New York. All this quarterback movement is dizzying, but six points, really? The Jets’ defense is dominant and in the conversation for being among the league’s best. However, there’s no way that we could possibly lay six points with this Jets’ offense at the moment. On a rainy day at MetLife Stadium, expect it to be an ugly, probably low-scoring battle. 

The Pick: Bears +6 (-110)

 

Late Afternoon Action

Much like the other team coming back from Munich, the Seahawks helped us learn a few things as well. It was mostly an ugly performance from Pete Carroll’s team, one that reminded everyone of what expectations were for Seattle this season. They competed in the fourth quarter, but outside of that, left a lot to be desired. The Raiders, on the other hand, had a feel good win in overtime last week and will look to carry the momentum. We’ll back the team with talent that hasn’t lived up to expectations, rather than the team with less talent that has exceeded them. This point in the season might just be the moment where those Cinderella stories begin to fade.  

The Pick: Raiders +3.5 (-106)

Another week, another heartbreaking loss for the Chargers. The emotional toll has to be unimaginable right now in Los Angeles, but the Cardinals aren’t looking too great either. They hardly ever win at home, but playing a Chargers team that invents new ways to lose every week, this might just be the best matchup for Arizona to get one for the home faithful. 

The Pick: Cardinals +3 (-115)

Let’s get this part out of the way. 15.5 is a big number. Huge. But if you think I’m backing a Rams team that’s quarterback’s room is comprised of people that were just playing catch at the local playground, you’re crazy. Maybe the Chiefs take their foot off the gas and allow the Rams to cover, but that probably would require the Los Angeles’s offense to put at least 17 points on the board, which is unlikely at best. Back the Chiefs to take care of business in a scrimmage. So much for Fox’s “America’s Game of the Week.”

The Pick: Chiefs -15.5 (-112)

The Saints are bad and the 49ers are not. New Orleans barely got by a horrific Rams team while San Francisco steamrolled the Cardinals on Monday night in Mexico. Sometimes the picks are easy. The Niners will win, but by how much? We’ll trust Kyle Shanahan’s group to get the job done and cover the number. 

The Pick: 49ers -8.5 (-110)

 

Who’s covering in primetime?

This might be Aaron Rodgers’ last stand on Sunday night in Philly. For what has been a challenging season for the reigning league MVP, Green Bay is running out of opportunities. Rodgers is dealing with a broken thumb, as he confirmed earlier this week. The emergence of rookie receiver Christian Watson should help Rodgers’ cause, especially for someone that has been struggling with accuracy issues. Plus the Eagles haven’t exactly been beating up on opponents recently, waiting until the final minute last week in Indianapolis to secure the win. Head coach Nick Sirianni celebrated like his team just won the Super Bowl, but unfortunately for him, there are still games to be played and genuine concern for these Eagles. So if you plug all those factors into a calculator, it adds up to the Packers covering when the lights shine bright on Sunday night. 

The Pick: Packers +6.5 (-105)

Speaking of that Indianapolis team, how about those Colts? They are 1-1 in the Jeff Saturday era but, if anything, they sure don’t look like the team we saw earlier this season. The Steelers looked much better last week after getting T.J. Watt back into the lineup, which also took some pressure off Kenny Pickett and the offense, but there’s just something about Indianapolis that we just can’t quit. Jonathan Taylor is finally getting going and in a matchup that couldn’t possibly be closer on paper, we’ll side with the team that has experienced a boost in play thanks to a new coach. 

The Pick: Colts -2.5 (-115)

author
Nick Brinkerhoff
Sports Journalist
Hello there, I’m Nick Brinkerhoff, a New Jersey native with enough sarcasm and attitude to show I’m not from New York. Despite being Jersey born and bred, I’m a diehard New York sports fan (Jets, Nets, Rangers, Mets) who has seen plenty of losing, but my sports betting ability will hopefully continue to balance those scales. I have season tickets to the Jets but believe it to be more character building than bad asset management. Althoug
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