Unfortunately in the NFL, there is no Groundhog Day to tell us if we are going to have six more weeks of the regular season or an early postseason. That’s where we stand now. All those months of building up to this moment. From free agency in March, to the draft in April, to offseason workouts and eventually training camp over the summer, we are officially in the “falling action” part of the plot as you probably learned in English class. Sure, there is plenty to be decided still as the playoff race heats up, but there is no disputing that we are winding down, almost to the point of where Scott Hanson will sign off for the final time on NFL RedZone in the 2022 season. Reality can be harsh.
Luckily for our sake, reality can also be great. We delivered another on another winning slate in Week 12, so hopefully you bought yourself something nice thanks to our 8-5 record, bringing the season’s tally to 79-63-8. However, don’t celebrate yet, because it can all come crumbling down in an instant. Thankfully we don’t plan on letting that happen, so let’s keep it rolling in Week 13.
**All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook**
Early Window Profits
Can the legend of Mike White continue? We saw last season after his breakout game against Cincinnati that White looked really good in the following Thursday night game in Indianapolis before getting injured, thus ending the White experiment. Will we see more of the same this time? Potentially, but this Jets’ team is miles better than last year’s group. They certainly need this game more than the Vikings, who have almost clinched the division already. We’ll bet the Jets to keep it rolling in what could be the best game of the early window. The Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen duo against the Jets’ secondary will be must-see TV.
This spread pick means that the Jets must either win the game or lose by no more than three points. If they lose by three exactly, the bet will be considered a ‘push’ and your wager amount would be returned to you.
The Pick: Jets +3 (-114)
Both the Broncos and Ravens are practically unwatchable as both teams just refuse to score. Denver can’t muster up more than 17 points most days, but the Ravens aren’t much better lately. Take the points if you have to bet on this game and don’t waste your time watching this one.
The -110 price on this pick means that in order to win potentially $100, you would need to bet $110. -110 is considered a fairly standard market price for this type of wager.
The Pick: Broncos +8.5 (-110)
So suddenly the Steelers are fun to watch? They are getting healthy now and Kenny Pickett is making real strides. Pittsburgh hasn’t yet clinched Mike Tomlin’s first losing season during his tenure, so until that happens, we’ll still believe they pull off a miracle and keep the streak alive. Plus, have you seen the NFC South? Good luck trusting any one of those teams, especially the Falcons.
The Pick: Steelers -1.5 (-105)
After a fun ending in Jacksonville last week, the Jaguars are riding high coming into the Motor City, which is the exact reason why we must fade them. While all the attention is focused on the Jags, we cannot forget that the Lions almost beat the mighty Bills on Thanksgiving. It’s hard to fade the team at home that’s been playing well lately, so we won’t.
The Pick: Lions -1 (-106)
There is a chance here that the Eagles completely demolish the Titans, but we aren’t going to acknowledge that right now. Cincinnati just made Derrick Henry look like an average running back last week and it’s hard to see that continuing, even with some reinforcements on the way in Philly. If there’s one thing we can count on, it will be Mike Vrabel having his team ready after a bad penalty ended the game back in Nashville a week ago. Another important thing to note is that the Eagles will get to play against some good AFC competition, which is something they’ve yet to see this year. With the NFC being a fairly weak conference, consider it a good spot to back the Titans on the road.
The Pick: Titans +4.5 (-106)
Whether we like it or not, Deshaun Watson is back for Cleveland this week, but if we can rejoice behind one thing, it’s that his team is a great one to fade on Sunday. We haven’t seen the Browns’ QB play a football game in quite some time now and there’s no telling what he’ll look like. Granted, this is a pretty easy game to ease back into action, but there will be rust and quite frankly, it doesn’t matter how bad the Texans are. It’s enough to pick them as touchdown underdogs.
The Pick: Texans +7 (-106)
Consider the Commanders–Giants matchup as one where the spread is close, but the final score won’t be. Even though the Giants are getting a little healthier, it’s still not enough for my liking as Washington just keeps getting the job done. Thanksgiving was a real reality check for the rebuilding G-Men as they were reminded just how far they still have to go. In reality, the big question about the Giants is whether they will win another game this season, and the Commanders will make that a popular topic on Monday. Look at that Giants schedule. They really might go winless the rest of the way.
The Pick: Commanders -1.5 (-114)
Aaron Rodgers has said countless times that he owns the Bears. Even with Justin Fields back for Chicago, it still isn’t enough to warrant picking the Bears in this one, especially with all the injuries. Sometimes it’s really that simple. Take the Packers.
The Pick: Packers -3.5 (-104)
Late Afternoon Action
The Rams are a disaster and the Seahawks are not. All those memes and stories about draft picks and how they are unnecessary were fun for a few years, but you’d have to imagine that Los Angeles would really like a first round pick or two right now. Meanwhile, those Seahawks are slowly coming back down to earth, but it still isn’t enough to side with Sean McVay’s Rams. Back the Seahawks in what might be an NFC West snooze fest at SoFi Stadium, which will be filled almost entirely with Seattle’s fans.
The Pick: Seahawks -7.5 (-105)
This one is going to be really fun. Really, really fun. It was so difficult to pick a side for this game and even my, “when in doubt, take the points,” strategy didn’t feel right. So we will pick the home team. With so much familiarity between the two coaching staffs, it feels like the best course of action is to bet on the better defense. The 49ers defense has dominated the second half of games for weeks now and the Dolphins tend to strike early. If San Francisco can keep it close in the first half, then we’ll be in a great spot for a Niners cover.
The Pick: 49ers -3.5 (-118)
In what was a nice win for the Chargers last week, let’s not assume this will be the norm going forward. Until proven consistently, the Chargers play wacky games and almost always find a way to lose them too. Unfortunately, the Raiders are another team this season that we are just asking to hurt us when we pick them. Regardless, we’ve seen this game once before and the Raiders got the job done. With the rematch in Vegas, we’ll take the Josh McDaniels’ team to keep rolling.
The Pick: Raiders -1 (-108)
And here is the other great game in the late window. It might be a crime to have two great games like these on at the same time, but we’ll be doing our best to watch both of them. This feels like a spot where the Bengals would be favored, but oddsmakers didn’t want one way traffic on the Chiefs. So to make up for that, Kansas City gets the benefit of being a short road favorite, but we get the benefit of betting the Bengals as home underdogs. Sign me up.
The Pick: Bengals +2.5 (-110)
Who’s covering in primetime?
It’s a real shame that we are still being forced to watch this game in primetime, especially with some other great matchups earlier in the day. The Jeff Saturday story is a fun, but tired narrative already, making this Sunday Night Football game more of a sad matchup than anything else. The Cowboys will win, but the only question is by how they’ll do that. Our belief if that they’ll find a way to cover the big number at home against the Colts.
The Pick: Cowboys -10.5 (-105)
And while we’re talking about bad primetime games, it only makes sense to get the NFC South in here as well, with the Saints and Buccaneers dueling it out on a Monday night. Neither team can score, but in this case, unlike the Broncos pick earlier, we’ll side with the better team simply because it’s a smaller spread. No matter what, this is a sad way to conclude what should, hopefully, be a fantastic Week 13 slate.
The Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 (-110)