Sunday’s action of Week 3 is upon us and now it’s time to see whether the hot streak can continue. For those that are just joining us here, welcome, and to the returning fans, thanks for stopping by.
Here’s a quick recap of the last week. Despite an average record against the spread of 6-8-1, player props saved the day as we managed to cash in on Garrett Wilson’s touchdown and also the sprinkle on the two TD’s as well.
A $100 bettor that also put half a unit ($50) on Wilson to find the end zone twice walked away with $3,150. Not bad for a few hours on the couch.
On Thursday night, we were a George Pickens touchdown or the Steelers covering +4.5 away from some serious cash again, but straight bets for that game were once again profitable. However, we can be even better and the intention is exactly that as we head into the early window of Week 3.
Early Window = Early to the Window
That early window strategy paid off perfectly last Sunday, but we must move forward and focus on what is in front of us.
** All Picks are from FanDuel unless noted otherwise **
John Harbaugh’s Ravens march into Foxboro in search of their second win of the year against a less than impressive Patriots squad. Baltimore played a great second half in Week 1 and three quarters in Week 2. Can they try and put together a four quarter effort in this game? New England’s defense might have stepped up last week, but that was Mitch Trubisky, not Lamar Jackson. Since Bill Belichick’s team doesn’t have someone like No.8, give me the Ravens to find their groove.
The Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-112)
When’s the last time Bills–Dolphins could be considered the, “Game of the Week.” Josh Allen’s team comes into Miami as two of the league’s media darlings face off in what could be a major blow to at least one big narrative this season. Buffalo is riding high after a beatdown of the Titans on Monday night, where talk of a potential 17-0 season has already crept into the discussion. Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins on the other hand, mounted a major comeback to stun the Ravens in Baltimore.
Buffalo is without its two safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, in what is now a fairly decimated secondary. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should dominate, but that’s exactly what Allen typically does against Miami, owning a 7-1 record plus a 21-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Betting against the best player in this game is hard to do, no matter how much hype is surrounding Miami. Taking the over and just enjoying the game is probably best here, but as for a side, betting against Buffalo is not profitable right now. Get the tables ready.
The Pick: Bills -4.5 (-115), Over 52.5 points (-115)
The next couple of picks might be ugly, but sometimes betting the NFL isn’t glamorous. Apologies in advance for what you’re about to read. Take the Panthers at home. Sorry, but I did warn you. Carolina has struggled, Matt Rhule is making a big push for the first coach fired, and Baker Mayfield has been underwhelming at best. Despite all of that, they just lost close games of three points or less in the first two weeks. They are a home underdog, against a division foe. Everything is pointing to taking the Saints, who are expecting to have Alvin Kamara available, but something about Jameis Winston’s injury doesn’t sit right. Taking the Saints just doesn’t feel right and sometimes you just have to trust yourself when something seems off.
The Pick: Panthers +2.5 (-112)
If you thought the last one was bad, then buckle up for this doozy. Everyone is picking the Chiefs to go into Indianapolis and beat the Colts. The Chiefs should take care of business, but will they? If there’s one thing to know about gambling, it’s that whatever should happen, rarely does. How else would those beautiful Vegas casinos be built? Frank Reich’s team is desperate to avoid an 0-3 start after two terrible games against division opponents. Kansas City’s offense wasn’t great last week against the Chargers, but escaped with a win. If you must bet this game, which you absolutely do not have to, then the suggestion is to hold your nose and bet the Colts to cover. The line should be at least a touchdown, considering how the Colts have been playing, and it’s not. That sound you hear is the alarm, notifying you of the trap being laid up ahead. Back Indy or better yet, stay away.
The Pick: Colts +5.5 (-110)
Folks, the Hard Knocks bump might be real. Dan Campbell’s Lions are a gritty bunch that is seriously fun to watch. How many times in recent memory could you say that about the team in Honolulu blue? This week they are off to Minnesota for a date with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, coming in as six point underdogs. Since the game isn’t in primetime, Cousins should show up and make this an entertaining game. However, expect another cover from Campbell’s guys or maybe even an outright win. There’s no way this line should be at six considering how close these games are traditionally. Believe in Detroit.
The Pick: Lions +6 (-110)
Let’s break the underdog trend for a moment to say, I cannot and will not entrust my hard earned cash in the hands of Carson Wentz and neither should you. Philly was only favored by three earlier this week, until it was bet up to the current number of 6.5. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense should flourish again in Washington, while questions remain if Wentz and his guys can keep up. I believe they can’t.
The Pick: Eagles -6.5 (-110)
Picking this game felt impossible before looking at the spread, and is even more difficult after finally seeing it. The Raiders should, there’s that keyword again, take care of business in Nashville against the Titans. However, if one thing is certain for this matchup, it’s that the Raiders cannot fall to 0-3. After dominating the first half last week, they went on cruise control in the second half, letting the Cardinals leave Vegas in a way many could only wish to achieve. A winner. My view of the Titans remains unchanged and, if anything, reinforced over the first two games. They are a team stuck in purgatory with no path to contention again. This feels like another good home underdog spot, but you couldn’t touch the Titans with a 10-foot-pole right now. Give me the Rrrrraaaiidaaas.
The Pick: Raiders -1.5 (-110)
And here we are, right back on the underdogs again. The Texans might have something brewing here. They compete, they fight, and they just flat out don’t quit. Two impressive games to open the season has left them without a win against what should’ve been superior competition. RIght now the Bears are too busy competing against their fans, rather than the opposition on the field. Justin Fields spent this week apologizing after saying that the fans aren’t putting in the work. The Texans have a young, talented defense, with an offense that could do just enough to win. Expect a 60 minute effort from Lovie Smith’s team against a lesser opponent, who have a great chance to leave Chicago with a ‘W’ next to their name.
The Pick: Texans +3 (-115)
Well this is awkward right? The Bengals visit the swamps of New Jersey again for a matchup with the Jets, who are coming off their first September win in four years. Cincinnati’s offense has struggled through two weeks, but Joe Burrow is to blame for at least some of it. They might be missing another offensive lineman today in La’el Collins, but Zac Taylor needs to get back to the quick pass offense that made them so successful last season. Can the Bengals avoid an 0-3 start? Well, Robert Saleh might have something to say about that, convinced that his team has turned the corner. With Zach Wilson’s return on the horizon next week, Joe Flacco gets another chance to give the green and white their first winning record in September since 2015.
Expect a desperate Bengals team against a Jets team that would love to prove they aren’t the “Same Old Jets” anymore. This should be a good one that is close in the 4th quarter, but give me the underdog. Again.
The Pick: Jets +6 (-106)
Late Afternoon Action
This is one of those games that the oddsmakers will have you dumbfounded with until kickoff at least. Early in the week this line was the Chargers by a touchdown, but uncertainty around Justin Herbert cut it in half. Is that a sign Herbert won’t play? Possibly. Regardless, facing the Chargers defense is a step up in class for the Jaguars, who haven’t won on the road since December of 2019 in Oakland. This Chargers team is talented enough to find a way, so let’s take advantage of a line that’s lower than it should be. Who knows, maybe Herbert even suits up.
The Pick: Chargers -3.5 (-105)
Here is the classic pick’em game where we have two bad teams, but you won’t see me going for the home team here. It is hard to trust Arthur Smith, who insists on using Kyle Pitts as a decoy, but his team is without a doubt better than Seattle. The Seahawks defense is in shambles, and the offense is not much better. The Falcons at least have been able to score points and nearly pulled off a comeback against the Rams last week. Expect Marcus Mariota to take advantage of a good matchup and maybe even target Pitts twice today.
The Pick: Falcons +1 (-112)
Aaron Rodgers’ Packers found their way again in Week 2, with the ultimate get-right game against the Bears. However, now they travel to Tampa that’s located in a state that has given Rodgers plenty of trouble over the years. He’s 3-5 in Florida, 1-3 in Tampa, but he’ll be 1-0 this week. Tom Brady’s Buccaneers are dealing with their fair share of injuries, plus a suspension to Mike Evans. They might be 2-0, but unless Brady picks a talented fan from the stands to throw the ball to, then give me the Packers.
The Pick: Packers +1 (-108)
Here’s a game that almost no one can feel good about picking. Which version of the Cardinals show up this week? Are we going to see hot seat Kliff Kingsbury or first half of the season, fun offense Kliff Kingsbury? Your guess is as good as mine. What we do know is that the Rams looked bad in Week 1, nearly collapsed in Week 2, and that doesn’t seem good in my book. Something feels off with this team right now, so in this divisional battle, we’ll go with another home underdog.
The Pick: Cardinals +3.5 (-110)
Who covers in primetime?
There was another intriguing home underdog to close out the Sunday action, but it was hard to get behind the Broncos. The 49ers have a new lease on life with Jimmy Garoppolo, and should take advantage of Nathaniel Hackett’s Broncos, who are an absolute mess early in the season. Until they figure it out, it’ll be hard to get on the Russell Wilson side of things. Broncos country, let’s ride right into hockey season.
The Pick: 49ers -1.5 (-114)
Brian Daboll’s Giants have received a lot of praise for their start to the season, but they will get a dose of reality this week on Monday Night Football. Cooper Rush continues to be effective in his backup quarterback role, keeping the Cowboys afloat, and will have another chance to do so this week in New Jersey. Expect the Dallas defense to make life difficult for Daniel Jones, while the talented Cowboys offense puts points on the board, unlike the Titans and Panthers did in each of the first two weeks. These Giants are certainly different from the team we’ve come to know over the last few years, but Monday night will be a reminder of just how far they still have to go. Dallas gets it done on the road.
The Pick: Cowboys +1 (-110)
Touchdown Parlay of the Week
After having a successful Week 2 with touchdown scorers, let’s try again in Week 3 to hit the jackpot. The four picks for Week 3 are all receivers who have gotten enough opportunity to be worthy of being on our betslips this week.
Garrett Wilson (+240)
Wilson received five targets in the red zone last week in Cleveland and could’ve had more than the two touchdowns he scored. +240 is still too high for arguably the best receiver on this team. He’ll be having apples, or Eli Apple, for lunch all afternoon.
Brandin Cooks (+165)
Cooks was another one who received multiple targets in the red zone but, unlike Wilson, couldn’t find the end zone last week. This week, Cooks gets a Bears team that has been generous to receivers in recent years, meaning the kitchen will be busy.
Drake London +220
London announced his arrival to the NFL last week, finding the end zone once and making a case for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s quickly become a favorite target of Mariota and, just like the other two, got a few chances to make something happen in the red zone. The Seahawks defense is virtually nonexistent, meaning he’ll likely be dancing at some point in the Pacific Northwest later today.
Chris Olave +250
Olave is another guy just waiting to breakout. He burst onto the scene last week, leading the Saints in targets with 13, and red zone targets, with two. His big play ability will be a favorite of Jameis Winston, and it’s not hard to see him getting six points up on the board in Carolina.
Parlay +9991
This week’s parlay pays +9991, meaning a $100 bet will add another $9,991 to your bank account. Always remember that straight bets are your friend, especially in this case, but be sure to bet responsibly. Happy betting and enjoy the Week 3 action.