If you haven’t learned by now, betting against Tom Brady is the quickest way to re-deposit into your bankroll. Time and time again, the odds are stacked against him and time and time again, it never seems to matter.
From bizarre rules to kickers that never seem to miss and a proclivity for finding opponents on the verge of collapse, the man never seems to lose.
So why, in year 23, should things be any different?
Brady is battling more than just time
This season may be Brady’s most difficult task yet. His Tampa Bay Buccaneers can’t stay healthy, especially up front. Star center, enforcer, and mercenary Ryan Jensen’s season is likely over, and Tristan Wirfs suffered an injury during the preseason. Wide receivers Mike Evans is dealing with his annual hamstring issue and Chris Godwin is working his way back from an ACL tear. Even their depth has taken a few shots prior to Week 1.
Perhaps the biggest loss Brady suffered was that of a friend. Tight end Rob Gronkowski’s long-winding path to retirement still hasn’t convinced the masses, but Brady won’t be with his tight end, at least until we get closer to playoff time. In the meantime, I’ll try not to feel too bad for the man that has just about everything else.
Head coach Bruce Arians retired after a 13-4 season, handing the keys to defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Much like their rivals in New Orleans, a coaching change doesn’t necessarily have to create a cataclysmic shift in culture or scheme.
For this Tampa Bay team, the Super Bowl remains the expectation. With the greatest of all time under center, that shouldn’t be a surprise.
The Buccaneers’ most difficult opponent this season won’t be Green Bay, Los Angeles, or Kansas City. It will be the undefeated Father Time. Now 45, Brady is still throwing the ball incredibly well, but decline is inevitable. Just how inevitable is the only thing left to be seen.
The Buccaneers through a betting lens
Despite their growing concerns, there should be little hesitancy to bet on the Buccaneers. DraftKings has been generous enough to set the line at 11.5, with +125 odds on the over. I’ll be sure to send them a thank you note when it hits. Brady hasn’t lost six games in a regular season since 2009, and he’s cleared that 11.5-win bar nine times since then. Stop betting against Brady.
To add, MVP bets this far out are about anticipating narratives as much as performance. If he winds up in the conversation, which he seemingly has since the turn of the millennium, voters will salivate at the storylines that come with the GOAT winning MVP in his final “final season.”
Could he use his retirement antics to guilt trip voters until the end of time? Who’s to say. He’ll be the only one standing when it’s all said and done anyway. Caesars Sportsbook has him at +900 to win the award, giving you a slight edge over rival books.
His partner in crime and leading receiver, Evans has officially shown us the ability to produce, regardless of his quarterback. Of course, the extra possessions that come with not throwing 30 interceptions are a nice boost. In historic fashion, he has hit 1,000 yards in each of the first eight years of his career. Evans is -145 to cross that barrier again, but -112 to go over 1,025.5. That much movement per yard is an awesome value from FanDuel.
On the other side of the ball, it’s a team-wide wager that’s caught my eye. Tampa Bay is +1600 to lead the NFL in sacks. However, they don’t possess the stable of edge rushers most of the teams in front of them have. They make up for it with quality play up the middle and versatile linebackers to blitz and disguise pressure. It’s far from a lock, but given how many teams will be stuck in passing situations, +1600 is intriguing value.
Further, rookie Logan Hall is an exciting addition to that defense. Hall’s falling to the Buccaneers was surprising at the time and has not been clarified in the recent months. He’ll end up as the clear-cut starter by the end of the year and add to the stress Vita Vea creates inside. Betting on an interior defensive line to win Defensive Rookie of the Year is like putting money on a Jets playoff run, but his impact shouldn’t be doubted.
The BetBasics Best Bet comes in the form of an under. Julio Jones is a fun addition that could be considered ring chasing. Unfortunately, he looked bad in limited action last year. I’m not confident an extra year of aging does him any good. There are a ton of mouths to feed, including two incredible wide receivers that soak up targets. For someone that isn’t even guaranteed to be the third receiving option, FanDuel’s 525.5 yards is hefty. I’d recommend taking the -112 odds on the under.
Instead of listing some quote about insanity or speculating on whether or not this truly is the last we’ll see of the GOAT, I’ll leave you with this. Nobody has ever made a killing consistently betting against Brady.