There’s something whimsical beneath the irony at the end of October.
For the children dressed like characters from their nightmares, Halloween is the scariest night of the year. Rewarded with candy for their bravery, the nationwide game of make believe shows them that not everything is as scary as it seems.
It’s only September, but the Arizona Cardinals have joined in on the festivities. This year, they’re pretending to be a Super Bowl contender.
You’ve got to hand it to them, they spent a long time working on their costume. The Cardinals extended star quarterback Kyler Murray and surrounded him with some of the biggest names in the sport. They traded their first rounder during the 2022 draft to acquire Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, a signal to the rest of the league that they were going all in.
After an embarrassing playoff debut for Murray and the Kliff Kingsbury administration, it’s clear the pressure is starting to build in Arizona. Was last year a mirage?
What happened to the Cardinals in 2021?
The story of the 2021 Arizona Cardinals begins and ends with Murray. Few players on the planet performed at his level for the first seven weeks of the year. Murray’s 0.249 Estimated Points Added (EPA) per play ranked fourth amongst quarterbacks. He found himself sandwiched between some guys named Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
Unfortunately, the NFL schedule isn’t as short as Murray. From Week 8 on, Murray’s 0.029 EPA/Play resembled that of Carson Wentz and a hobbled Baker Mayfield. He saw his downfield accuracy drop from 72% to a much more pedestrian 55.2%. A mid-season injury didn’t help, but the offense sputtered and eventually fell flat.
This isn’t a new development, though. Both Kingsbury and his quarterback have a reputation for starting fast and falling faster. You’ve probably seen graphics showing Murray’s declining performance coinciding with the release of Call of Duty video games. It’s a funny example of “correlation not causation,” but the problem persists.
So now what? Should we expect Arizona not to fall out of the nest this year? Their roster doesn’t exactly provide optimism.
Projecting Arizona’s 2022 season
Arizona’s strengths at quarterback and wide receiver are well known, as are their big names on defense. J.J. Watt and Budda Baker headline a defense that ranked sixth in EPA/Play in 2021. Their tight ends are strong and the back seven has some intriguing young pieces, but things get tricky after that. We can’t rely on year-to-year consistency from the defense, and the offense isn’t exactly a guarantee.
It’s no secret that the Cardinals have built a top-heavy roster. The passing game will be thin until DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension. Rodney Hudson is the incredible centerpiece of the offensive line, but D.J. Humphries is likely the only starter returning even average play. If the 33-year-old gets hurt, every dimension of the Arizona offense is in big trouble.
On the other side of the ball, Baker and newly-extended Jalen Thompson protect the top of a fast, versatile defense. There’s athleticism aplenty, but significant questions remain. For one, who is rushing the passer? The loss of Chandler Jones means Watt must carry the load of the pass rush. With his spot on the injury report perpetually reserved, it’s hard to be confident in this front seven.
Everywhere you look, this roster feels an injury away from catastrophe. If your costume is a raindrop away from papier-mâché, you were never meant to trick or treat.
The Cardinals through the betting lens
Unfortunately for us, Vegas isn’t falling for the ruse. Virtually everyone has Arizona at 8.5 wins, smack in the middle of their range of outcomes. If everything goes right, they can blow that number out of the water. They feel a lot closer to Murphy’s law.
At that line, it truly does feel like a coin flip. If the bar to clear was any higher, I’d recommend the under, but at 8.5 an -110 odds in either direction, I’d take the over and hope good quarterback play wins out.
Speaking of good quarterbacks, the world is watching Murray, and honestly, rooting for him to fail. The content creation machine is ruthless, and if making fun of Murray helps that cause, so be it. It’ll be up to him to quiet the narratives and supplant himself in the MVP conversation. If the Cardinals have any shot at a Super Bowl, it’s behind an MVP campaign that currently sits at +2000 odds (FanDuel).
Elsewhere on the offense, James Conner should be in store for a big season. He looked great in 2021, scoring 15 touchdowns on the ground and gaining 375 yards through the air. With Chase Edmonds taking his talents to South Beach and no legitimate competition for touches, Conner should see insane volume. FanDuel is offering enticing +220 odds on Conner to break 1,000 rushing yards.
Defensively, things seem to be trending upward for Isaiah Simmons, the versatile freak from Clemson. He’s had a rocky start to his career, but has been trusted with the green dot. He’ll be the brain of an Arizona defense that badly needs to gel. I won’t be placing a unit on his long odds to lead the league in tackles, but if he can help retain the defense’s 2021 success, it’ll go a long way to boosting their win total.
Moreover, this roster is in need of both depth and young talent. Trey McBride offers both. The tight end will start once the Zach Ertz era ends, but for now, he offers them flexibility. If they want to move into 12 personnel, McBride offers a blend of blocking and explosiveness to threaten defenses. He allows the Cardinals to get much deeper into the playbook without sacrificing receiving ability. He won’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he’s a near-lock to be the best baby bird in Arizona.
The BetBasics Best Bet for the Cardinals takes advantage of their floor and preys on the downfall of some teams in tough situations. BetMGM is offering +1500 odds on a parlay of Arizona, New England, and Las Vegas to fall under 7.5 wins. We know how fragile the Cardinals are. The Raiders face a similar predicament given the state of the AFC West; they also have the worst quarterback and defense in that gauntlet. I don’t want to make a habit of betting against Bill Belichick, but that secondary is bad and the offense isn’t exactly a world beater. They may be closer to the cellar than some are willing to admit.
Ultimately, the Cardinals aren’t much scarier than their namesake, regardless of whether or not they are willing to admit it. With a questionable offensive coaching staff, little-to-no depth, and legitimate questions on both sides of the ball, we shouldn’t be surprised if they struggle to get off the ground.
When Arizona comes home at the end of the night, they’ll have the Rams at the door waiting to “check” their pillowcase full of candy. As long as that’s the case, the end of October will be where the Cardinals festivities come to a close.