Aidan HutchinsonAmon-Ra St. BrownD'Andre SwiftJared Goff

The Detroit Lions are biting knees and taking names

I’d like to formally apologize to Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell. I liked his previous work as a coach, but I judged a book by its loud, unapologetic cover. His comments and demeanor screamed “1990s football” and a sequel to the Matt Patricia regime. I was dead wrong.

 

Campbell quickly built a new culture in the Motor City. The players bought in and it quickly became clear his words were real. The emotions after their Week 13 victory, ending a season-long winless streak showcased everything we needed to see. Tears, speeches, hugs, the whole nine yards. 

 

That culture was on display on “Hard Knocks,” filled with even more tears, speeches, and hugs. There was some extra Michael Jackson, too. The point is, Campbell is the guy for the job. He’s built a quality coaching staff, optimizing the development of this young roster.

 

Is Detroit’s roster capable of winning games?

 

Unfortunately, culture doesn’t mean jack if the guys on the field aren’t good enough to compete. Last year, they were a laughing stock, but there’s reason to be excited about this team.

 

Primarily, they’re going to play some really good football between the trenches. Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell are one of the more promising tackle duos the league can offer. Frank Ragnow headlines a strong group of interior linemen. Alim McNeill, Michael Brockers, and Aidan Hutchinson give them a legitimately good defensive front. In the secondary Amani Oruwariye has established himself as an excellent young corner and Jeff Okudah is showing flashes of why he was drafted so highly.

 

Everyone knows a Jared Goff offense is limited, but he’s a serviceable passer that can coast until the franchise quarterback is found. Nobody outside of the facility expects them to make any noise and that may be enough to make them dangerous. For now, they’ll have to make due with the awesome Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie Jameson Williams, likely to make an appearance late in the year. Expect a strong year from tight end T.J. Hockenson, too. He may end up with the second-highest target share on the team.

 

They might not win a lot of games, but they’re a lock to be more competitive in 2022. Don’t be surprised if they upset your favorite playoff contender. 

 

Without a massive offseason, the extent of the Lions’ improvement will come solely from player development. How trustworthy is Campbell’s squad?

 

The Lions through a betting lens

 

The operative word for this Detroit season is “competitive.” Improving upon last year’s floor is a must and avoiding blowouts will be a priority. There’s some level of excitement here. With a good enough supporting cast, Goff can win some games. They feel a few overperformances away from sneaking up on the league. Still, that feels another year away. Feisty? Sure. Fearsome? Not quite. Under 6.5 wins feels like a much safer play given their range of outcomes. You can get plus money on that wager at FanDuel and BetMGM

 

It’s hard to find an MVP on a team devoid of superstars and without a franchise quarterback. For the time being, we’ll give St. Brown the honors, at least within the clubhouse. He’s a target machine and the undisputed top receiver on this offense. Given the attention he’ll receive, FanDuel’s line of 77.5 receptions is surprising. Take the over on that one, and consider adding his touchdowns and receiving yards to your bet slip, too.

 

Elsewhere on the offense D’Andre Swift has created quite the storm of excitement. I loved him coming out of Georgia and he’s a fantasy mainstay for me, but betting on his production may be treacherous. Jamaal Williams will be breathing down his neck for touches and his third-down skills can take away vital opportunities. Swift has also struggled to stay healthy over the course of his career and may not be as fundamentally sound as strong numbers suggest. With a rushing+receiving yards line equivalent to Austin Ekeler (1,400.5, DraftKings), I’m inclined to take the under (-115).

 

Let’s double dip with Hutchinson. Without a full Williams rookie campaign, the edge rusher should be a shoe-in for being the best rookie on the team, as well as a legitimate DROY candidate. I can’t say I love his +450 odds, especially with names like George Karlaftis (+1600) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (+600) listed after him. The former, for what it’s worth, is not an indictment from a pre-draft scouting report, I just feel the values are similar. 

 

Part of my hesitancy here comes with the lack of confidence I have in Hutchinson hitting the over on his projected 7.25 sacks. Pass rushers aren’t a guarantee to make an impact from the jump and his draft capital may be inflating that number.

 

The BetBasics Best Bet is found on DraftKings, where you can bet on the Lions to finish third in the division. Given +175 odds, you’ll have to deal with three things going down as they should. Nestled in between the Vikings and Bears seems both uncomfortable and dangerous, but there are few “exact position” bets safer than this one.

 

Detroit’s range of outcomes is interesting due to their ability to knock off a contender on any given week. Gone are the days of uncompetitive blowouts and empty stadiums. The team and the city are behind Coach Campbell and what he’s building in the Motor City.

 

Sure, a low-ceiling, third-place projection doesn’t sound fun, but Campbell will ensure the Lions are entertaining until they’re ready to hunt. Those days don’t seem too far away. 

author
Anthony Licciardi
Sports Journalist
Anthony Licciardi is a long-suffering fan of the New York Mets, Jets, and Knicks. He aims to build a smarter generation of sports fans and writes to distract himself from the daily happenings of his favorite teams. In his spare time, he’s knee deep in Google Sheets looking for some statistical edge on coming betting action. With former bylines at Pro Football Network, Cowboys Wire, and Around The Block Network, Anthony has experience wri
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