AJ TerrellDrake LondonKyle PittsTyler Allgeier

Things will get worse before they get better in Atlanta

There’s no reason to sugarcoat it, Atlanta Falcons fans have been through enough as it is. Things are going to get worse before they get better.

 

The Falcons’ 7-10 record from 2021 encapsulated an aging quarterback desperate to find a new home. Matt Ryan had overstayed his welcome, betrayed by a front office that refused to put a consistent winner around him. Ryan was dealt to the Indianapolis Colts during the offseason, opening the door for Marcus Mariota to carry the burdens of this roster. 

 

How much help will Mariota get in Atlanta?

 

Atlanta had a below-average offensive line last year, ranking 20th in both Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate, per FootballOutsiders. The team’s No. 1 target, Russell Gage, is now fighting for reps in Tampa Bay. At least the Cordarrelle Patterson experiment was fun. 

 

Mariota will have the luxury of throwing to rookie Drake London and athletic freak Kyle Pitts in 2022. Having two monsters to attack the seams with is lucrative, though most aren’t expecting Atlanta to be a bastion of passing production. Mariota is the perfect bridge quarterback, signed to a two-year deal and all but forced into a backup role for 2023. Rookie Desmond Ridder will be more likely to start with every uncompetitive loss, helped by the notion that he was the most “pro-ready” passer in his class.

 

Atlanta’s offense undeniably lacks upside, but on the other side of the ball, things get considerably uglier. A.J. Terrell and Grady Jarrett are very much stars in their own right, and the Casey Hayward signing gives them stability on the boundary, but the rest of this defense is a cesspool. It’s the kind of roster that makes us wonder if the football gods don’t visit us out of fear for what they’ve created.

 

This team lacks any semblance of quality edge pressure and is not nearly as formidable up the middle to compensate. Poor edge rushers, linebackers, and safeties is a recipe for disaster and only hurts the production from their defensive stars. Atlanta will be vulnerable to the deep ball all year, and once teams get ahead, they’ll struggle to stop the run. 

 

Outside of a handful of incredible athletes, the roster is a low-ceiling, low-floor collection of despair, an embodiment of the struggles these fans have watched over the years. Just how bad will things get in Atlanta?

 

The Falcons through a betting lens

 

Currently, FanDuel is offering +100 odds on Atlanta to accumulate less than 4.5 wins on the year. That’s  a low bar, and for good reason. This team is a significant injury away from FBS contention and it feels like Boise State could keep them close for a quarter and a half. Some team is going to fall below that mark in 2022. It might as well be the Falcons.

 

Still, it would be disingenuous to call this a team without bright spots. BetMGM and Caesars are sharing -115 odds for Pitts to go over 4.5 touchdowns. For fantasy purposes, the argument for Pitts was that he will either never score touchdowns at a league-average rate, or he’d be one of the most productive players of the decade. The logic stands here, too. Pitts can ball, and he’ll have every chance for targets in 2022. Take the over. 

 

Another Pitts wager that caught my eye is the even money for him and Patterson to combine for 12 or more touchdowns (DraftKings). If the Falcons can manage to score 12 touchdowns this year, this should hit. By sheer opportunity, the bet makes sense. Frankly, the only other target with any real talent is London. Patterson has three avenues to score if we include special teams. If the odds were any longer it would be the smash hit of the year, but we’ll be fine matching our stake.

 

On the other side of the ball, taking the under on Terrell’s interception total (2.5) sticks out. The only factors working for him are the time he’ll spend on defense and the addition of Hayward. Terrell is incredible. That’s part of the problem. Teams will successfully look to avoid the standout corner, even if it means picking apart linebackers and safeties all day. It’s just hard to see a path to too many opportunities. 

 

Another young star in Atlanta is London, or so we hope. Caesars is offering +1400 odds for him to take home Offensive Rookie of the Year. London is a physical specimen that should instantly be the Falcons’ best non-Pitts option. If a quarterback fails to start early in the season, it’ll be open season for the hardware. London is as good of a bet as any to beat out the non-quarterback competition. 

 

The BetBasics Best Bet also finds itself amidst the rookies, just a little deeper. Tyler Allgeier is +6000 to win the award on BetMGM. This isn’t totally unfair, but as a sleeper to take over Atlanta’s rushing responsibilities, there’s value. The rookie is legitimately talented and may have enough third-down skills to stick, especially if Patterson gets banged up. Of course, a few things will have to break your way but early opportunities for Allgeier can lead to massive upside down the line.

 

At this point, focusing on the young talent is all Atlanta can do. Firmly in the hunt for the first overall pick, it’s possible Ridder gets leapfrogged before he takes a snap. That growing possibility only puts more pressure on Atlanta to show him playing time.

 

From there, it’s up to him to change the narrative on how these dirty birds down south are perceived. Until then, the rest of us should tread carefully. If they can blow a 28-3 lead, they can blow up some bets, too. Will they knock off any contenders in 2022?

author
Anthony Licciardi
Sports Journalist
Anthony Licciardi is a long-suffering fan of the New York Mets, Jets, and Knicks. He aims to build a smarter generation of sports fans and writes to distract himself from the daily happenings of his favorite teams. In his spare time, he’s knee deep in Google Sheets looking for some statistical edge on coming betting action. With former bylines at Pro Football Network, Cowboys Wire, and Around The Block Network, Anthony has experience wri
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