The two rookie of the year races could not be more diametrically opposed. On the offensive side, a nice mixture of wide receivers, running backs, and quarterbacks have fairly similar shots to win the award. Week 1 provided no clarity on that front. Defensive Rookie of the Year, however, was a different story. The summer and the season opener were alike with their odds. In all likelihood, an edge rusher will win the award. Should we disregard everyone else?
The Favorites
The top four candidates for DROY, per FanDuel, are all edge rushers. Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and George Karlaftis lead the pack, with the former two sharing +600 odds and the latter at +800.
Walker had a big day on Sunday. There was angst surrounding the first-overall selection due to the notion that he was a pure project, but he made an instant impact. He notched a sack and an interception against Carson Wentz. I’m not sure there’s an edge to be had here, but look for him to continue this high level of play.
Hutchinson, sharing the same odds, doesn’t strike me as a +EV bet. His hype is more narrative than anything else, given his draft capital. He didn’t generate a sack, though a one-game sample size isn’t nearly enough to extrapolate upon. If you were a Hutchinson fan pre-draft, wait for his odds to fall a little before placing a wager.
Thibodeaux and Karlaftis offer values that are a little more intriguing. They have roughly equivalent chances to lead the group in sacks. Karlaftis’ vital role on a (presumably) winning defense offers an additional narrative boost.
The Risers and Fallers
There was minimal movement across the DROY landscape on Sunday. With few risers and fallers to discuss, there’s a separate conversation to be had. Is it worth placing money on a defensive back to win the award?
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner looked incredible in his debut. He locked up Mark Andrews and only allowed a single, eight-yard catch on the day. Derek Stingley Jr. looked awesome in his Houston Texans debut, despite head coach Lovie Smith’s atrocious game planning. The two are special talents with chances to become lock down corners and high-level playmakers.
Regardless, the only way a corner will win the award is if an edge rusher struggles to eclipse double-digit sacks. There have been two DROY winners at the cornerback position since the turn of the century. With the current crop of edge rushers, I’m holding off on Gardner or Stingley until it’s clear the edge class flops.
The Dark Horse
One of my favorite long-odds bets to win the award resides in Seattle, where the Seahawks have entered their rebuild. Young edge rusher Boye Mafe currently holds +6000 odds to win the award. He’s dealt with injuries and has struggled against the run, but the man can get to the quarterback. If a potential rotational role lets him get hot, we can see his odds jump quickly. We may be a few weeks away from a Mafe impact, but it may be worth considering as a Hail Mary futures bet.