No futures bet looks to be a labyrinth of names quite like Offensive Rookie of the Year. The running backs disappointed. The hype did not match the performance for many of the wide receivers. We’re still waiting for a quarterback to start. I don’t know who’s going to win the award, but I’m sure the sportsbooks don’t either. Where do things stand after a wacky Week 1?
The Favorites
Per DraftKings, wide receivers George Pickens and Jahan Dotson claim the shortest odds for OROY at +850 and +900, respectively. However, the two had incredibly different debuts. Dotson caught two touchdowns en route to a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. His highlight reel ability was on display and added another dimension to the Washington Commanders offense.
Pickens saw a single catch and three yards across five quarters on Sunday. For him, his preseason hype has quickly skyrocketed his odds. Pickens fans will have to play the long game so that he can overtake more targeted options like Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. That’s enough to turn my head to other options. At a crowded position, both on his team and for this award, a lot of things have to go right for Pickens to be the top rookie, despite his awesome physical talents.
The Risers and Fallers
The only true riser from this weekend was Dotson, but I fear the competition for targets will ultimately hold him back. Guys like Drake London and Chris Olave (+1000) looked adequate in their early-season showings but failed to make a statement. It’s important to remember that rookie receivers typically blossom late in the year. It may be worth holding off the position until we have a bit more information.
Running back Dameon Pierce’s weekend didn’t help his case for OROY. Falling behind to Rex “Flex” Burkhead, Pierce did not see the touches or snap counts anybody had dreamed for him. Disappointed fantasy managers can convene at their newly-scheduled therapy sessions before Week 2’s action.
One line that doesn’t quite make sense is Breece Hall’s at +1700. Sure, he’s sharing snaps with Michael Carter, but he looked good on Sunday. He is easily the best back from his rookie class and has the potential to take over full-time duties midseason. With odds that once lied around +800, Hall’s new line provides intriguing value.
The final “faller” from Week 1 didn’t do anything wrong. Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett did not play in the team’s ugly win, and recent comments from head coach Mike Tomlin suggest he won’t see the field anytime soon. I call bull. There is only so long one can watch Mitch Trubisky waste a talented roster before either going insane, getting fired, or making a substitution.
We know Tomlin is safe, but how long can this charade last? Pickett wasn’t picked in the first round for his absurd upside and highlight-level plays. He was taken because they feel he can operate an offense and won’t waste a good defensive effort. Pickett will start sometime soon, and OROY is a quarterback award. Take advantage of the falling odds, which now sit at +1300.
The Dark Horse
One intriguing dark horse for the award is Indianapolis Colts receiver, Alec Pierce. He struggled in Week 1 and his poor play likely cost the Colts a game. Still, there’s a massive hole at no. 2 receiver. While it’s being filled on a rotational basis right now, a couple strong weeks can lock down that spot for the rookie, who has the draft capital to warrant extra opportunities. There’s as easy a path to production as receivers listed well ahead of him. Consider him a name to keep an eye on at +4000.