Ah, the week after Thanksgiving. The fresh autumn breeze. The decision to chuck the last of the leftovers 🗑. The integration back into the weekly cycle of work, football, sleep, repeat. The NFC’s playoff picture got a bit clearer over the weekend, and we got confirmation about other teams: they are, in fact, very bad. What else did we learn from the action of #NFLWeek12?
Cleveland Browns 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers headed to Cleveland for a lucrative matchup against a below-average quarterback and one of the league’s worst defenses. Instead, they wasted countless opportunities in pursuit of an overtime loss. Against a unit offering a get-right game for Tampa Bay’s ground attack, the Buccaneers were successful a mere 35% of the time.
In the end, it was retread head coach Todd Bowles who cemented their fate. His poor clock management and late-game decisions took the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands. It was inexplicable and emblematic of all the ways this staff has let this aging roster down. 😞
Don’t worry. They’re still going to win the division. FanDuel has them at -330 for good reason. If you want your first bet to be a lock, use their promotion for BetBasics readers and take Tampa to host a playoff game: UP TO $1,000 BACK IN BONUS BETS.
Philadelphia Eagles 40 – Green Bay Packers 33
Speaking of teams hosting playoff games, the Philadelphia Eagles have won yet again. It’s been a magical season filled with lucky breaks and a whole lot of talent, both on the field and in the booth. However, the win didn’t do much for my confidence in their Super Bowl odds (+650 on FanDuel). 🪄🏆
They took advantage of a horrid Green Bay run defense to the fullest extent. Great! Genuinely, it was a dominant offensive performance. No complaints there. Elsewhere, I was left unimpressed. The Packers were able to keep themselves in the game by decisively executing against Philadelphia’s four-man fronts, particularly on the ground. When the weather gets cold and they’re forced to tackle repeatedly, can they avoid disaster? Also, their special teams coverage has been bad. Super Bowls are won with the little things, but bad special teams can become a big thing in the blink of an eye.
As for Green Bay, Jordan Love saw his first game action of the year, and looked pretty good. With Aaron Rodgers hurt, struggling, and all but out of the playoff hunt, there’s no reason why this shouldn’t be Love’s team for the foreseeable future. What have they got to lose?
Los Angeles Chargers 25 – Arizona Cardinals 24
Every season Kliff Kingsbury continues to coach the Arizona Cardinals is a season lost to incompetence.
Week in and week out this team gets unabashedly out-coached. This time, it culminated in a big fourth down play call that the Los Angeles Chargers saw coming all the way from Inglewood. Of course, it didn’t work. 🙄
This is an offense with a spectacularly talented Kyler Murray, and elite receiver, and one of the league’s best complementary options. There’s simply no excuse to suck. Enough is enough.
Buffalo Bills 28 – Detroit Lions 25
The Cardinals aren’t the only team with questionable coaching. Dan Campbell has done a lot of good things for the Detroit Lions, but Thursday’s showing was simply an attempt at threading an impossible needle. They tried to both score and leave Josh Allen no time left to score. That wouldn’t be the case. Instead of scoring a touchdown, their poor play calling put them in position to kick a 51-yard field goal. A full 21 game seconds later, Buffalo would have their own kick: a game winner.
Yet, Detroit managed to cover the 9.5-point spread. They are built to cover from behind, especially on their own turf. You can all but lock those in the rest of the way, especially if the Jacksonville Jaguars end up as the favorite for #NFLWeek13.
BASIC TIPS
This article includes references to Against the Spread (ATS) bets. Here, a team must “cover” a given point total in order for your bet to win. If your team is the favorite, like Buffalo at -9.5, the Bills would have to win by 10 or more in order to cover. The Lions, on the other hand, needed to win OR lose by nine or fewer points. A final score of 28-25 meant Detroit covered on Turkey Day. 🦃