Week 2 OROY Update: The Garrett Wilson Game

Brian Robinson Jr.Drake LondonGarrett Wilson

The New York Jets may finally have an elite receiver. From hoping Santonio Holmes could relive his Pittsburgh days to two years of Brandon Marshall, New York has been searching for top-tier talents for quite some time. They’ve committed to surrounding their young quarterback with talent, epitomized by 10th overall selection, Garrett Wilson.

It took a week to catch on, but Wilson had the game of his young career against the Cleveland Browns. He saw 14 targets, catching eight for 102 yards and two scores. Most importantly, he hauled in the game-winning touchdown to stun Cleveland. Wilson’s efforts have sent New York media into a frenzy, but it’s hard not to be excited by his performance. How did his Sunday change the race for Offensive Rookie of the Year?

The Favorite

In somewhat surprising fashion, Wilson’s week did not propel him to the top of the sportsbooks. No one would have been shocked if Vegas gave him +500 odds to win the award and took advantage of the hype.

 

 

Regardless, DraftKings’ current favorite is Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London. His profile was always that of an easily-translatable no. 1 target, and it has quickly come to fruition. While “tight end” Kyle Pitts struggles to earn targets (very much an Arthur Smith issue), London has found a surplus. Through two weeks, he’s seen 19 targets.

London makes up a disproportionate share of Atlanta’s passing offense, posting numbers in line with the game’s greats. It may be unrealistic to put him on such a pedestal this early, but the numbers aren’t deceitful. London can ball, and he’s the top option in an offense playing host to a separate generational talent. As long as the quarterback play doesn’t collapse in on itself, London should be in line for a lot of looks. His current odds stand at +600, meaning an $100 wager would net you $600 in profit.

The Risers and Fallers

Obviously, the story of this week is Wilson. His explosive day helped catapult his line from four digits to +800, tied with Jahan Dotson for the second-best odds. 

A significant aspect of his early season dominance is his effect on the Jets. If confidence in Wilson means they play more 11 personnel, the volume will be there for Wilson to compete for the award. We know how much Joe Flacco trusts Corey Davis. Elijah Moore is incredible in his own right. If Wilson is better than both, New York becomes a much more appealing surrounding cast. 

He’s seeing the targets and making the most of them. Wilson is separating at an insane clip in the red zone and has shown to be a fairly secure option. Of course, his fit with Zach Wilson will be the biggest determinant in his fate. Don’t hesitate on these odds before he becomes the favorite.

Two other names that stood out were also top targets from the 2022 class. Chris Olave saw over 300 air yards on Sunday. That isn’t normal. The Ohio State product’s case for OROY will bank on some of those deep shots being completed. If he can make a name for himself as a certified deep threat, like DK Metcalf, he’ll have a shot at the award. His odds currently reside at +1100.

Treylon Burks, on the other hand, is falling fast in my eyes, even if the odds are yet to reflect it. Burks is undeniably talented, but the Titans are sputtering. They seem to be on the fast track to an abysmal season. If the passing efficiency isn’t present, Burks has little shot at the award. DraftKings’ +1400 odds is probably generous to Burks given the state of the Titans offense.

The Dark Horse

Don’t forget about Brian Robinson Jr. The running back was the victim of a shooting prior to the regular season and is already back to practicing. Robinson had the starting running back job all but confirmed, and will likely have the opportunity to seize that role once again.

If he can return quick enough and look like the best rookie back, voters will have a hard time distracting themselves from Robinson’s resume. Like everything else, it’s a narrative award. There’s no greater narrative than a Comeback Player of the Year/Offensive Rookie of the Year hybrid campaign. His +1400 odds aren’t super long, but are worth taking a look at.