Maybe this is ill-advised, but I’ll give the AP voters the benefit of the doubt. Given a full season’s worth of games, I think they’ll be able to pick the best candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. They won’t be too heavily influenced by pre-draft notions or statistics that are less meaningful than the discourse around them would suggest. They’ll see the light to the righteous candidate and not a headliner winning just for the sake of doing so. If this wishful prophecy is to come true, it means the current favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year won’t last.
The Favorite
The face of the Detroit Lions defense, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, is the current favorite to win the award (+250 on DraftKings). As a Michigan man and passionate player, Detroit is lucky to have him plastered on stadium promotions and local billboards. In fact, he might represent the Lions a bit too well. He’s overhyped, entertaining, and probably not as good as we’d hope, at least not yet.
Hutchinson has risen to the top of the oddsmakers’ list due to his pass rushing production. His three sack performance in Week 2 catapulted his stock. The problem? Hutchinson didn’t do very much to earn those statistics. He didn’t not do his job, but let’s not pretend he’s some forced to be reckoned with. His sacks have come as a result of poor quarterback play, good coverage, and games at the line of scrimmage.
Additionally, Hutchinson hasn’t shown the ability to beat legitimate NFL tackles with any authority just yet. Obviously, the Lions feel that is coming; it’s why they took him second overall. But for now, he remains a fraudulent favorite for the award.
The Risers and Fallers
You’d be better off placing a wager on George Karlaftis to take home the hardware. He’s yet to record a sack, but let me be the first to inform you if nobody has already.
The man is a problem.
He takes his “Furious George” nickname seriously and has already had a legitimate impact on the Chiefs defense, even if the sacks haven’t found their way to the box score yet. On a good team with plenty of national attention, it is easy to see Karlaftis seeing an episodic rise as the weeks continue to pass. At +900, there’s a stark difference in value between Hutchinson and Karlaftis. His odds have only improved slightly from last week, but if he puts up any meaningful statistics, expect Vegas to be kind.
Another riser is Devin Lloyd, arguably the least-talked about first-round selection of the decade. Maybe it was because his Jacksonville Jaguars shocked the league by taking Travon Walker first overall. Maybe it was the theatrics, chaos, and trades of the night that let this fall under the radar. Regardless, no one spoke about Lloyd on draft night, and he hasn’t heard his name since.
Lloyd hasn’t let the silence deter him, though. He now has two interceptions to go along with 24 total tackles through three weeks. The Jaguars are playing good football, at least in part from contributions from the front seven. It’s rare for an off-ball linebacker to win the award, but certainly not impossible. Lloyd has quickly found himself with +550 odds on DraftKings.
The Dark Horse
If it wasn’t already obvious, the dark horse for DROY after Week 3 is Jalen Pitre. The Baylor product remained in Texas to start his NFL career. He’s been one of the Texans’ best players so far and simply has a knack for making plays. He’s coming off of a one-sack, two-pick performance against the Chicago Bears. If he keeps making plays at this clip, his +2000 odds will be a thing of the past. ‘
BASIC TIPS
Betting on awards like DROY are often considered “futures.” They are fairly simple to place, but require more patience than your typical straight bets. In the case of this article, we may take Karlaftis’ +900 odds to win the award because we feel the books will shorten his odds to +400 by Halloween. We’ll have to deal with the loss of a unit (a uniform amount of money one places per bet) and sit with it for a few months. If you’re willing to take the short-term hit to your bankroll (amount you have available to spend in a sportsbook), there are many intriguing long-term options.