Few players have faced the doubt Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has throughout his career. He was called a wide receiver during his time at Louisville. He took over college football, yet fell to the final pick of the first round. No quarterback has had their ability to effectively win from the pocket unfairly questioned like Jackson.
The most recent name atop his list of doubters is Baltimore. Jackson chose to bet on himself, unhappy with contract negotiations and the Ravens’ hesitancy to commit with the same strength other teams have. It’s safe to say he’s proven his point.
As always, Jackson is elite on the ground. He’s continued to produce as a passer, too. His 10 passing touchdowns lead the league through three weeks. Jackson and the Baltimore offense have been tantalizingly efficient. The Ravens are 2-1 and poised to win the AFC North, helping Jackson on his quest to win a second Most Valuable Player award. What are his odds?
The Favorite
Despite the Week 3 loss to the Miami Dolphins, Josh Allen remains the favorite to take home the hardware, sporting +300 odds on DraftKings. At that mark, you’d take home $300 in profit from a $100 bet.
Allen’s the favorite for a good reason. He’s an alien masquerading as an NFL quarterback. Allen has been asked to shoulder the load of the entire Buffalo Bills offense. With the defense they showcased in their first two contests, it’s a formula for success. When half the defense is hurt and they end up having to run what felt like 300 plays, things start to get hectic.
Allen threw the ball 63 times on Sunday and was sacked four times. His eight rush attempts added to the hits he’d have to take. When asked to do so much it’s not a surprise the offense’s efficiency fell off. Allen is incredible, but his usage and style of play aren’t conducive to a healthy 17 games. Let him carry the load come playoff time, not on a destructively hot day in Miami.
The Risers and Fallers
Jackson has continued to see his odds shorten. Post-Week 1, he was listed at +1600. Now, he’s at +700. No longer is he the shining easy value of early September. Jackson is approaching the “favorites” territory.
His great year has a chance to leap again on Sunday. He faces Allen and the Bills at home, where the Ravens can make themselves AFC favorites. Given Buffalo’s hurting roster and the tall task that is merely containing Jackson, taking his odds now may provide the most value.
Jackson is elite, and he’s running out of ways to prove it.
Furthermore, Jalen Hurts has continued his meteoric rise. The Philadelphia Eagles are undefeated. The offense is humming, with Hurts’ development intersecting with his mobility to create a new nightmare for defenses. With a strong surrounding cast around him, there’s plenty of reasons to believe his performance will continue. Taking the Eagles from the top of a measly NFC East to legitimate conference contenders is a possibility that shouldn’t be discounted. He’s risen to second place in the MVP race, with +600 odds.
Justin Herbert, on the other hand, has fallen from his preseason stature as an MVP favorite. A rib injury and a couple of Chargers losses have landed him at +1500 to win the award. It’s too early to rule him out of the race, but Los Angeles isn’t getting any healthier. We may be dealing with a cursed franchise, incapable of avoiding gridiron cruelty. Wait for the top dogs to stumble before laying cash on a Herbert MVP wager.
The Dark Horse
It seems I have the kiss of death, at least for dark horses in the MVP race. Kirk Cousins’ Week 1 performance earned him a shoutout, only for him to fall, hard, back to Earth. Russell Wilson’s Broncos scored 11 points on Sunday Night Football, stifled again by a quality defense.
Jaguars fans, I’m sorry.
If you haven’t been paying attention to Jacksonville, shame on you. Trevor Lawrence is playing really good football and his Jaguars are atop the AFC South. It’s early, but Jacksonville seems like a real life football team, and it’s fun to watch.
Currently holding +3000 odds to win MVP, Lawrence is the long shot to lie your money on. Viewed as a generational talent by many, Lawrence has finally arrived. After sabotaging him in year one, Jacksonville has done right by their most important asset.
We’re watching a flower blossom in the swamp.