Week 4’s prospective game of the week between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens lived up to expectations. The 23-20 contest may not have had the fireworks the total score wager suggested, but the superstars, highlights, and drama were in full effect.
Head coach John Harbaugh’s decision to go for it on 4th & goal from Buffalo’s two-yard line backfired and became as controversial as it was unsuccessful. He trusted the playmaking ability of his MVP-caliber passer over his Hall of Fame kicker and defense and fell short at home against elite competition. How did it shake up the race for Most Valuable Player?
The Favorite
With his victory over the current runner-up, Josh Allen has kept pace ahead of Lamar Jackson for the right to win MVP. Per DraftKings, his odds currently stand at +275.
Allen and the Bills will be two-touchdown favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Despite matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers before the month ends, the road ahead is fairly easy. Allen is easily the best quarterback on the schedule post-October, and they only have three other games against teams most expect to make the playoffs (Minnesota, Miami, Cincinnati).
The key to betting on futures, aside from lucrative long-odd selections, is to best select when odds are at their longest. For example, if Allen goes and has a monster stretch run, his +275 line will be a thing of the past, and can turn into something line -200. The difference in making $275 in profit from an $100 bet to $33 is substantial. Given the light late-season schedule and his team’s success against other MVP Candidates, you may not see better MVP odds until next season.
The Risers and Fallers
The movement towards the top of the MVP race has created a tier of upper-class quarterbacks and everybody else. Jackson and Patrick Mahomes share +500 odds, with Jalen Hurts just behind at +550. Nobody else is even close.
If Allen isn’t your flavor, you’d be best served to select a winner from this small group. Mahomes is the best player on the planet, and he proves it week in and week out. Jackson epitomizes the next generation of quarterback play and is truly a one-of-one talent. Hurts has leveraged his supporting cast to develop into the most improved quarterback in football, and the league is taking notice.
Jackson was my preseason pick for the award, but a loss to Allen and two blown leads in three weeks doesn’t hurt his case. Mahomes and Hurts offer better value right now.
Elsewhere, quarterbacks have seen their MVP odds fizzle away, despite strong performances. Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers hold +3500 odds despite holes on the offense that continue to get exploited. The rise of Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa have been put on pause for the time being.
The Dark Horse
I’m not in the spirit of kicking those who are already down, but someone had to take one for the team. Each dark horse I’ve named has fallen flat in the ensuing week, with Lawrence’s four fumbles making him the last victim.
The best long-odds bet to win MVP is Tom Brady at +4000. If this BetBasics curse is legit, Brady will see even worse luck than his off-field situation would suggest. If not, you’re getting good value on the greatest of all time in his final season. The MVP is a narrative award as much as it is a statistical one. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win the NFC South without contest. They may host the NFC.
Brady hasn’t started strong, but he’s no stranger to immaculate runs. A big second half and conversations about his last dance could be enough to sway voters in his direction.