The Indianapolis Colts have struggled to find a franchise quarterback since Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement. Jacoby Brissett, Brian Hoyer, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz have since started games, but have failed to deliver a playoff win. They traded for fringe Hall of Famer Matt Ryan, sending a third round pick to the Atlanta Falcons. Indianapolis has continued to pour assets into the quarterback position. Seven weeks into the 2022 season, it’s clear it did not work.
The Colts are 3-3-1 and in the hunt for an AFC South title. Those hopes are quickly deteriorating after a second loss to the Tennessee Titans. Ryan has been benched for second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger.
Why did the Colts turn to Ehlinger?
Simply put, things aren’t working. The strong offensive line Indianapolis was supposed to provide Ryan has not materialized, and the offense has fallen apart. Ryan has taken far too many sacks and has generally struggled to move the football. He threw for 243 yards on 44 attempts in Sunday’s loss. His inability to extend plays gives defenses an advantage on every drop back, and has rendered Jonathan Taylor as the team’s only home run hitter.
What Ehlinger brings to the table is something the veteran never had, legitimate mobility. Whether it be a designed run, a scramble, or merely extending a play long enough to find a completion, Ehlinger opens up the offense. Sure, his arm talent isn’t what Ryan’s is (or, at least, was). He won’t process information better and will probably make some cringe-worthy mistakes. It’s everything else that has landed him the keys to the stable.
Ehlinger ensures that plays won’t be dead on arrival. The possibilities, from there, are endless in either direction. The Colts are operating under the framework that being bad and high variance is better than being bad and low variance. Ehlinger’s ceiling likely isn’t anything special, but he’ll scratch the itch of hopelessness that’s consumed Lucas Oil Stadium on every drop back.
Should we bet on Indianapolis?
Forecasting the near future is tricky with this Colts team. For one, the new quarterback opens up the offense a bit and could have a legitimate immediate impact. On the other hand, few saw Ehlinger as even draftable coming out of Texas. Things might get even worse. Let’s just say I’m thankful my picks column isn’t due until Friday. I’ll probably end up fading the public and hoping for the best.
Sunday’s lines might not give us an edge, but that doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist elsewhere. DraftKings is currently offering -165 odds on Indianapolis to miss the playoffs. For a team on the verge of firing somebody and leaning over the canyon of quarterback hell, these may be the best odds you’ll end up getting. The entire league looks bad right now, but the emergence of a few average teams can quickly bury Indianapolis in the standings. Don’t expect their playoff hopes to get much better, even with a Week 8 win.
BASIC TIPS
You may have seen the phrase “fading the public” in this article, or others on BetBasics. What this means is simply doing the opposite of the consensus. Sites like FanDuel offer statistics under many of their game lines, showing where people are putting their money. Remember, the house always wins for a reason. It isn’t hard when the public gives them free money.