Welcome to Week 5 of the NFL season, which kicks off with an absolutely awful Thursday Night Football matchup between two underachieving teams. As if we haven’t seen enough of Nathaniel Hackett’s Denver Broncos, they are once again being featured in prime time, this time against Matt Ryan and the lowly Indianapolis Colts.
Tonight’s matchup won’t feature either team’s star running back, with Jonathan Taylor sidelined and Javonte Williams out for the season, taking some serious juice out of this game. There was an argument for making this game the worst Thursday Night Football game of the year, but one look at next week’s game is enough to leave that idea behind.
Just remember, this is what you’re paying for. Prime Video, not prime games. Either way, it’s impossible to pick a side here as well as probably 85% of the player props. Over or under? Who knows? The only thing we do know is both teams desperately need a win, but only one can get it. While everyone wracks their brains over figuring out who wins, let’s stick with the player props we might have clarity on. Tonight’s not the night to shoot for the moon, so exercise caution in your bets.
As always, here is our weekly four leg, sweat free same game parlay courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Alec Pierce Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The logic behind this pick is simple. Last week, we tried to outsmart the sportsbooks, which did not prove to be profitable. This week? Let’s state the obvious. Top receiver Michael Pittman Jr. will be dealing with Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II all night, opening up the rookie Alec Pierce in the passing game to have a big role. After a quiet Week 1 and recovering from a concussion after Week 2, Pierce burst onto the scene with 61 receiving yards on five targets in Week 3 and 80 receiving yards on six targets in Week 4. Ryan is looking the rookie’s way and 34.5 is a low number for this explosive receiver. Take the over with confidence.
Nyheim Hines Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Now it should be noted that the Colts elevated Philip Lindsay off the practice squad for this game, meaning Nyheim Hines won’t be seeing the same amount of rushing attempts as previously expected. However, did you see what Josh Jacobs just did to this same Denver defense on Sunday? The Broncos just lost Randy Gregory to a knee injury, meaning they’ll be a bit thinner in the front seven tonight. Hines isn’t known for being productive in the run game, but there’s a good chance he breaks off a couple of good ones tonight. It’s time for the Colts offensive line to start winning some of these battles up front.
Russell Wilson Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
Originally, this was supposed to be a Melvin Gordon prop, but the line has been fluctuating all day long. Earlier today Gordon’s rushing total was set at 57.5, which was fine. Then it dropped to 53.5, even better. However, it has since jumped to 62.5 which was too rich for now. Instead we’ll pivot to Russell Wilson’s rushing total, who has gone over this number in each of the last two games. It seems that Wilson is starting to use his legs a little more in order to move the chains, totaling 17 and 29 yards on the ground in the last two weeks. That is trending in the right direction. He has at least four rushing attempts in each of those two games, so there will be opportunity.
Courtland Sutton Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Again, the logic is simple. Take a look at the Colts defense through four weeks and you’ll notice a trend. They are allowing a 68.6 completion percentage to opposing receivers and have allowed their opponent’s best receiver to record at least 78 receiving yards in three of the four games. We’ll consider the Titans to be an outlier, simply because they are a more run-heavy offense that will do anything to keep the ball out of Ryan Tannehill’s hands. There’s no reason why Courtland Sutton can’t take advantage tonight. He’s gone over this line in three of the four games, recording at least seven targets in each of them. Now Sutton might not be in the mold of the three receivers that took advantage of this Colts defense, Juju Smith-Schuster, Christian Kirk, and Brandin Cooks, but he has been great this year and is a favorite target of Russell Wilson. You could pivot to Jerry Jeudy instead, but Sutton instills more confidence right now, especially without the injury concerns.
Parlay +1296
This parlay pays +1296, meaning a $100 bet will win $1,296, for a total payout of $1,396. Don’t forget to opt in and always bet responsibly.
Basic Tips
When betting a parlay, you are betting on all the selected outcomes in order to receive a larger payout. For example, if you bet this one and Russell Wilson finishes with seven rushing yards, the wager will lose. We recommend you place this bet on FanDuel Sportsbook, where they are offering a “Sweat Free” promotion for tonight’s game, meaning there is insurance on the bet. You must opt into the promotion before placing the wager in order for it to be deemed eligible. The promotions page will say what your max wager is. In the event the parlay does not win, you would receive a free bet equal to your wager amount, up to the max indicated by the promo.