March Madness has arrived, and with it, the storylines that make the tournament great. No longer are North Carolina, Duke, and Kentucky favored to win it all. In fact, the Tar Heels didn’t even make it to March. In the South region of the bracket, a controversial Alabama team headlines a group of teams destined for single-digit matchups. Who can we trust to take care of business in the South?
SOUTH REGION
South Champs | South Sleeper | South Bracket Buster | South Best Pro | South Best Mascot | South Best Bet |
No. 6 Creighton | No. 10 Utah State | No. 3 Baylor | Jerry West, No. 44 West Virginia | No. 8 Maryland Terrapins | Furman +5.5 over Virginia |
A Cinderella Sweep?
One team well-positioned to make a legitimate run for a tournament title is the Creighton Bluejays. Despite being the No. 6 seed in the South, they possess the fourth-best odds (+800) to represent the region in the Final Four.
The road ahead seems daunting as they will likely face No. 3 Baylor and No. 2 Arizona with consecutive wins. However, via the 2023 Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings, the Bluejays are a better defensive unit than either of their higher-seeded counterparts. And not just by a hair.
Baylor ranks 104th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Arizona ranks 41st in the nation. Creighton sits at 15. This is a team that is fairly experienced, well-coached, and as talented as any in the nation. They currently hold -225 odds to beat NC State, and are 5.5-point favorites (-106).
A second sleeper resides in the South region. While proclaiming a double-digit seed to win it all is blasphemous; that doesn’t mean they can’t win a game or two. My Round of 64 upset from this region is Utah State over Missouri. Sure, they’re the No. 10 seed in the South, but they are actually favored by 2.5 at FanDuel. Utah State has the 18th-highest adjusted efficiency margin per KenPom, compared to the Tigers’ 51st placement.
Southern Sadness
Unfortunately, for more than 60 of the teams that end up making the tournament, sadness will be the lasting emotion of the month. For some high-seeded teams, that disappointment may come sooner, and louder, than fans expect.
Two of the aforementioned teams in Creighton’s path are teams that should be worried about heading home early. They aren’t alone. Alabama’s controversies could swallow them whole. San Diego State gets the pleasure of being the cursed No. 5 seed.
Another team that should be on edge is No. 4 Virginia. Many fans may not have heard of Furman, but they’re ready to make some noise. I have the Cavaliers coming out ahead, but it doesn’t seem to be the trendy pick. The Athletic’s modeling has a Furman victory as the most likely upset of the first round, coming in at a 39.3% chance. As 5.5-point ‘dogs, Furman very much looks like one of the best bets the bracket will have this week.
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Forecasting Future Rounds
Looking ahead past the first round gives us the opportunity to examine some March Madness futures. From the South, the first one that sticks out is Alabama’s chance to win the region. At +190, they lead their region and trail only Houston (+120) for odds on the right to play in a tournament semifinal.
What about winning it all? The Crimson Tide also trail the Cougars there, with a +800 line compared to +500. If Alabama was to bring home a title, a $100 bet would secure $800 in profit.
Ultimately, the South seems poised to deliver on its promise of a prolific first-round, and mid-to-low seeds have legitimate potential to shake up the Sweet 16. Whether it be Creighton, Furman, Utah State, or a dark horse I’ve largely overlooked, some team is going to make those top squads sweat.