If one thing has become clear through seven weeks of NFL action, it’s that very little is actually clear. There are three good teams, a couple of stinkers, and about 25 teams capable of beating one another on any given Sunday.
Thursday saw the gap between the league’s elite widen with a pair of trades.
The Philadelphia Eagles traded a fourth-round pick to the Chicago Bears for edge rusher Robert Quinn. The Kansas City Chiefs sent a third and a sixth to the New York Giants for wide receiver Kadarius Toney.
Quinn adds to awesome Philly front
The Eagles didn’t need to make a move. But general manager Howie Roseman is as meticulously aggressive as they get, and with a cheap opportunity to add to the pass rush available, he pulled the trigger.
Quinn joins edge rushers Brandon Graham, Haason Reddick, and Josh Sweat as threats to opposing tackles. He’s coming off of a 18.5-sack season, and while he’s only notched a single sack this season, there’s reason to believe more are on the horizon. He’ll be double-teamed much less frequently with ample talent around him. Interior lineman Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Jordan Davis, and Milton Williams can open things up for him too.
Philadelphia’s defense has been great this season, in large part due to improvements made to the secondary. Instead of favoring the fun debate of pass rush or coverage, Roseman chose “C. all of the above.” Adding to the depth of the defense’s most important unit works to ensure that the Eagles can rotate better and put players in an optimal position to win.
It may not answer the conundrum Davis presents (solely being used in five man fronts), but Philadelphia can feel a little better about their run defense with four down lineman.
Don’t expect Quinn to move any spreads, but there’s future bet value given to us in this trade. DraftKings and FanDuel are offering -135 odds on the Eagles to clear 13.5 wins, meaning an $100 wager would net $74.07 in profit. They have one of the league’s easier schedules, and a fortified defense only adds to the confidence you should have in such a bet.
Chiefs throw Hail Mary on production
Because Patrick Mahomes needed more help, right?
The Chiefs are loaded and a problem to guard on their worst night. Adding another pure playmaker in Toney is just a nuisance for opposing defenses. They certainly paid up, though. A top 100 pick for a receiver with durability concerns (among other potential pitfalls) and a lack of production is a leap of faith.
It’s not necessarily misguided, though. Stopping Kansas City means doing everything to contain Travis Kelce while keeping the top on the defense, limiting the deep ball and taking advantage of the advantages your corners likely have over their receivers in man coverage. If your man coverage is good enough and you generate enough pressure, it is possible to take down Goliath.
They’ll look to counter that with an abundance of athleticism. Toney can make plays underneath and threaten big plays with a very dynamic skill set. They can supplant the run with manufactured touches and use the threat of it as eye candy to confuse members of the back seven. Toney makes this offense more flexible and more explosive.
Another reason I like this deal for them is its potential down the road. Next year, we should expect more of Skyy Moore, a rookie who has struggled in his limited rookie campaign. At his best, he’s a true separator that would be hell to guard alongside Toney. The 2023-’24 Chiefs should be even closer to the unguardable standard they set during their Super Bowl run. The current Kansas City team isn’t too shabby, either.
UP TO $1,000 BACK IN BONUS BETS
If you’re confident in their ability to win a couple of home playoff games against seemingly mediocre competition, FanDuel’s +340 odds to win the AFC isn’t a hard pill to swallow. They seem to have a date set with the conference game, and now have an extra weapon to get there.
BASIC TIPS
This article refers to the Chiefs +340 conference championship odds, as well as the Eagles’ chances to hit 14 wins. These are considered futures bets. They present bettors the opportunity to place money down on an event multiple weeks away. If you’re willing to take the short-term loss, futures bets can provide lucrative opportunities. Just make sure the wager is well-timed. Too early, and you may not be operating with enough information. Too late, and you’ll miss out on enticing value.