“Tanking” is a bad word in the NFL lexicon. No matter how bad a fanbase wants the best possible pick, the players do not oblige. Players don’t tank. Coaches don’t tank. Front offices do.
However, it’s Week 18. Almost half the league is eliminated and another handful will rest starters in hopes of an injury-free week. A single, largely meaningless, game to go means the intensity, rigor, and competitiveness from the past four months is no longer a guarantee. Some players will get a day off to rest or showcase the talents of a younger player. Others know they’re four quarters away from vacation.
Which teams are most likely to lie down in Week 18?
The Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears are on a nine-game losing streak despite the emergence of Justin Fields. If they couldn’t win with their franchise quarterback, we definitely should not expect them to win without him, especially when Nathan Peterman will be taking his place.
Chicago gave up on this season when they traded arguably their top two defensive players before the deadline (only to make a questionable Chase Claypool acquisition). With the first overall pick within reach and the season long over, I’m comfortable taking the Minnesota Vikings to cover. DraftKings currently lists the Vikings as 7.5-point favorites at -110, meaning a $110 bet could win $100.
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The Indianapolis Colts
If those aforementioned Windy City fans are going to get their wish, they’ll need some help. That may come in the form of an absolutely awful football team. Time and time again, the Indianapolis Colts have embarrassed themselves. Several different quarterbacks, a head coaching hire out of left field, and the league’s worst point differential (-137) have appropriately summarized the season.
Now, they play the Houston Texans, one of the few teams with a worse record, and the team in possession of the first overall pick. With a Texans win and a Bears loss, that first pick will head north.
Interestingly enough, this presents Indianapolis with an opportunity. A loss on Sunday could give them the chance to jump Houston for a quarterback this April. We won’t see them intentionally lie down, but there’s a reason they are only 2.5-point favorites at home. I like the Texans’ +125 odds to win.
The Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns don’t gain anything from losing on Sunday. They traded their first round pick when they sold their soul for their current quarterback. All a loss does is give them a fourth-place schedule for next season, drawing the Bears and Broncos instead of the Raiders and Lions.
But who knows how good those teams will be next year?
The rivalries of the AFC North should not be taken for granted. A chance to eliminate the Pittsburgh Steelers from playoff contention won’t be taken lightly. Cleveland has issues of their own to sort out before posing a threat, but this game should stay close for its entire duration.
The Washington Commanders
Last week, the Washington Commanders regretted their lack of energy and momentum in their loss to the Browns. It cost them a chance at the playoffs, a conclusion foreign to head coach Ron Rivera. The decision to start Carson Wentz likely sealed their fate.
Now, they’ll turn to rookie Sam Howell. A UNC product, Howell fell farther than most anticipated and deserves a look at the very least. A win doesn’t do much to the Dallas Cowboys’ aspirations and they cannot pick any higher than 10th.
Still, this team has a laundry list of injuries to deal with and a cloud of mediocrity perpetually overhead. That doesn’t sound like ideal weather conditions for a rookie quarterback making his professional debut.
I don’t know how much I trust the Cowboys, but I’d consider their -7 line and happily add an alternate line in a teaser. Teasers are parlays created with alternate lines that are easier to cover, but offer shorter odds.
The Carolina Panthers
I struggle to see the Carolina Panthers crumbling in the season’s final game. They were decimated by a more talented Tampa Bay Buccaneers team on Sunday, but their season’s meaning did not end with its playoff hopes.
The locker room has voiced their support for interim head coach Steve Wilks. Week 18’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints is a chance to back those demands. They’ve shown definitive improvement under him, and even made Sam Darnold look like an NFL quarterback.
Wilks deserves this job, but the temptation to replace him with a bigger name is pressing. They may not be successful, but Carolina won’t go down without a fight on Sunday. The Panthers currently hold -115 odds to cover a 3.5-point spread in New Orleans.
The Detroit Lions
It very much seems like the league wants the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs. Pushing this game to Sunday night was a deliberate choice to help the Packers.
If the Detroit Lions win and the Seattle Seahawks lose, Detroit will have the 7th seed in the NFC. The Packers control their own destiny.
In theory, both of these games should be played at the same time. If the Seahawks win, the Lions no longer have anything to play for. There is no better way to hand Green Bay a playoff berth than to open the door for Detroit to watch its season end in the locker room before kickoff.
Of course, the league would counter with the tenacity of Dan Campbell and a team that has clawed its way back from the depths of 1-6. They’ve made it this far, why stop now?
A spread of only 4.5 isn’t terrible, but I much prefer the Packers’ -230 moneyline to the -115 odds on them to cover.
BASIC TIPS
This article largely features against the spread (ATS) bets, where teams must cover a predetermined amount of points in order to win. The favorite, say Green Bay at -4.5, must win by five or more points. The underdog, Detroit, must win or lose by four or fewer points. These can be played straight up (typically around -110 odds) or combined into parlays for longer odds.