For anyone venturing into the world of MLB betting for the first time, trying to make sense of betting odds can almost feel like you’re learning to read a foreign language. Thankfully, the team at Bet Basics are here to translate for you until you can become fluent!
By the time you’re done with this guide you’ll have the confidence you need to find the best odds available on the market and make smart betting decisions to win big on MLB games.
HOW TO READ ODDS
Odds are the tool sportsbooks use to indicate the probability of an event happening. While there are many different ways that you can bet on MLB games, the odds for each of these betting markets will be expressed in the same fashion
In most instances, MLB odds in the USA will be displayed in a ‘moneyline’ format, which is sometimes referred to as ‘American’ odds. Occasionally, odds might be expressed as fractional or decimal odds, which some bettors may find easier to read. More on that here.
However, as moneyline odds are the most commonly used in the US, we’ll focus our attention on that. Moneyline odds represent the favorite with a positive (+) sign and the underdog with a negative (-) sign.
The positive sign indicates the potential profit a bettor can make by wagering $100, while the negative sign corresponds to the amount a bettor needs to wager in order to turn a $100 profit.
AN EXAMPLE…
To make things clearer, let’s use the above example of the opening game of the 2021 ALCS between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros to help us understand how to read odds for MLB moneyline, spread and total bets.
Moneyline: The Red Sox are listed at odds of +122, while the Astros are listed at odds of -144. Right off the bat (pun intended), we can see the Red Sox are slight underdogs, while the Astros are the favorites.
With this in mind, a $100 bet on the Red Sox to win will pay $222.00 ($122.00 in profit plus the original wager of $100.00, also known as the “outlay”). On the other hand, a $100 bet on the Astros to win would yield a payout of $169.44 ($69.44 in profit plus the $100 outlay).
Number crunching is such an integral part of the sport of baseball, and calculating profits for winning bets is no different. Put simply, the rules are as follows:
- For favorites divide 100 by the odds and multiply the result by your wager amount. In our example, the calculation would be (100/144)x100=$69.44.
- For underdogs divide the odds by 100 and multiply the result by your wager amount. In our example, the calculation would be (122/100)x100=$122.
However, if you’re still not quite clear on how to figure out your potential winnings by looking at the odds provided, there’s plenty of odds calculators available online that can do the job for you!
Spread: In our example, the sportsbook has applied a handicap of -1.5 runs to Astros, which consequently means the Red Sox have been given a +1.5 run head start for spread betting purposes.
This means if you bet on the Astros to cover the spread, they must win the game by 2 runs or more for you to win. In turn, if you bet on the Red Sox, they must lose the game by no more than a run (or win outright) for your bet to payout. The -162 odds displayed for the Red Sox +1.5 runline indicates this outcome is considered more likely than the Astros covering the -1.5 spread at odds of +134.
Using the calculations above, a $100 bet on the Red Sox +1.5 would return $161.73 ($61.73 in profit plus the $100 outlay). A $100 bet on the Astros -1.5 would return $234 ($134 in profit plus the $100 outlay.
Totals: In our example, the sportsbook has set the totals line at 8.5 runs for the game. Wagering on the over (indicated by the ‘o’), would mean you need 9 runs or more to scored in the game for your bet to win. Betting on the under (indicated by the ‘u’), would require there to be 8 runs or less scored in the game for you to collect.
The -115 odds for the under indicates that it is a very slight favourite compared with the -105 odds for the over. Using the calculations above, a $100 bet on under 8.5 runs would return $186.96 ($86.96 in profit plus the $100 outlay). A $100 bet on over 8.5 runs would return $195.24 ($95.24 in profit plus the $100 outlay).
Now you understand how to read odds for moneyline, spread and totals bets, you can take this knowledge and apply it to other MLB bet types such as props, live betting, parlays, and futures bets.
Being clear about what different MLB betting odds represent is a crucial step towards responsibly wagering on games. You’re now in a position where you can find the best value available from different sportsbooks and quickly assess the risk/reward ratio of certain bets. Now it’s time to check out our list of Bet Basics 100% licensed and regulated legal sportsbooks to get started!