There’s no foolproof method to making money with NBA picks and parlays, but with clever research and analysis, bettors can greatly improve their chances of turning their wagers on the world’s top basketball league into a profitable experience.
Compared to the other major American sports, NBA has far smaller rosters and a higher level of scoring. As a result of this, upsets become less frequent as the more talented of the two teams is likely to emerge victorious most nights.
In addition to this, games come thick and fast, so bettors who are able to capitalise on the predictability of the sport have ample opportunity to stack winning wagers together and boosts their profitability. Here’s a few tips on how to do just that for NBA picks and parlays:
NBA SPREAD PICKS
As mentioned earlier, in general terms NBA games are slightly more predictable than their NFL, MLB and NHL counterparts, meaning sportsbooks are usually pretty accurate in terms of setting moneyline odds. It’s for this reason that spread betting is the most popular form of wagering on NBA games as it presents more of an opportunity for bettors to find value with their wagers. For a more detailed breakdown of NBA spread betting, click here.
One of the best ways to become profitable with NBA spread picks is to maximise any variances in odds and lines that often occur between sportsbooks for NBA games. Because of the packed NBA schedule, bookmakers only have a small window to set odds and spread lines, meaning they are bound to make errors on occasions. Ensuring you’re signed up with multiple sportsbooks from our Bet Basics list of 100% licensed and regulated legal sportsbooks allows you to find these mistakes and take advantage of the most favourable odds and lines on the market.
Another key thing to consider is that it’s often the matchups between small-market, struggling teams that no one is talking about which provide the best opportunities for profitable NBA spread betting.
It’s easy to buy into all the noise surrounding a marquee matchup between Lebron James’ Los Angeles Lakers and Steph Curry’s Golden State Warriors and want to have some skin in the game. However recipe for winning NBA spread picks is to make the smartest bets, which does not necessarily mean wagering on the best games. If you’ve put in the time to analyse a matchup and you’re confident the worst team in the league has value over the second worst team on that particular night, then that’s still a pick worth making.
NBA TOTALS PICKS
Putting all your eggs in the basket of one team isn’t the only way to bet on NBA games, with totals picks also a great way to get yourself a slice of the action.
The first key statistical category to examine here the team’s number of possessions per game. The more possessions a team has per game, the more shots they’re likely to take and therefore the more points they’re likely to score. Teams that play at a quicker pace and use less of the shot clock will generally have more possessions each game.
The second statistical category to examine is offensive efficiency. This is basically a means of determining how many points a team scores with each 100 possessions. By evaluating this along with the number of possessions per game, this will give you a good indicator of how many points each team will contribute to the total score.
NBA PARLAY PICKS
NBA parlay picks present a more challenging proposition for bettors, but can be a great way to increase your winnings if you’re able to get the formula right.
An NBA parlay pick featuring a trio of spread and/or totals bets will often result in odds of around +600. Parlays with more legs than this are much more challenging to nail and in reality don’t reflect a good value proposition for bettors. One way in which bettors can try to gain an advantage with parlay picks is to build a same game parlay where they can include bets that have a strong correlation to each other. For example a bettor might wager on the over for a handful of individual player points totals, as well as the overall game total if they expect the game to be a fast-paced, high scoring affair.
Unfortunately because all legs of a parlay pick must be from the same sportsbook, it makes it much more challenging to shop around for favourable odds compared to NBA spread or totals picks.
However, regardless of whether you’re making a spread, totals or parlay pick, it’s clear that the best way to set yourself up for success is to spend a bit of time researching before making your bets. Thankfully we’ve put together this guide to help you find free and accurate NBA predictions. Once you’re across that, we recommend signing up with a variety of top sportsbooks such as BetMGM, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, 888sport and Bet365 to get the best odds available. Good luck and have fun!