Is it the end of the beginning? Depends on if your team made the playoffs.
Which makes Week 18 the most unpredictable slate of games since Week 1, when most teams have more questions than answers and rookie QBs are soiling the sheets the night before the opener.
Since so many outcomes will determine the final playoff spots and seedings. Other games are meaningless for some teams. Take the Giants-Eagles. Philly wins the NFC East and No.1 seed. Jalen Hurts is playing. The Giants are starting Davis Webb at QB. Good grief.
So without further delay, let’s analyze the last week of the regular season. For those of you who’s teams are in the tournament, you might want to sit this week out, just like a lot of starters.
+BILLS -7.5 over Patriots – The Pats can get in with a win and losses by the Steelers and Dolphins. They also need the Jaguars to win Saturday night, which they did. Plenty of motivation there.
But obviously, no team has more motivation to win than the Bills. They surely will be playing for Damar Hamlin, which isn’t as straightforward and positive as it sounds. Buffalo essentially hasn’t played in two weeks and all that emotion can backfire. The Loser thinks that won’t happen. The Bills will friggin stampede the offensively challenged, dual-offensive coordinator equals no OC Pats, and whiney QB Mac Jones.
As for football, a Bills win clinches the No.2 seed. Should the Chiefs and Bills advance to the AFC title game, it will be played at a neutral site. A loss and a Bengals win over the Ravens drops the Bills to the No.3 seed. So, yes, there’s a lot to play for.
FALCONS -4 over Bucs – Having wrapped up the NFC South title last week, the Bucs (8-8) have nothing to play for. They’ve played that way a lot this season. Does finishing above .500 mean anything to Tom Brady and Co.? Doubt it. Consider this the first preseason game of 2023 for the Falcons. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder starts his fourth game. He has yet to throw a pick. Wow! Or a touchdown. Ow!
BEARS +6 over Vikings – After extensive research that involved three delicious glasses of Balvenie 21-year-old single malt scotch, The Loser has concluded the Vikings are one of the weakest 12-4 teams in recent history.
But they can move up to the No.2 seed if they beat the Bears in a 1 p.m. game and hope the 49ers lose at home to Cardinals in a 4 p.m. game, which is as unlikely as Matt Gaetz and Mike Rogers going fishing on Sunday. Well, maybe if one brings a machete and a body bag.
Bears without QB Justin Fields. Vikings have said they won’t bench any starters but will “manage reps,” which is code red. Vikes are 8-1 at home but 4-3 on the road.
Texans +2.5 over COLTS – Jeff Saturday will hold a clinic after the game, “How to Mismanage QBs and Return to the Booth.” Texans have been better in the second half of the season. Colts have lost six straight and could turn to Jelani Woods, a tight end who played quarterback in high school. Not!
DOLPHINS -3 over Jets – It’s the Backup QB Bowl. Jets going with Joe Flacco, who was a Super Bowl-winning QB, which makes us shake our head every time we type that sentence. Fish going with rookie Skylar Thompson, but we expect to see Teddy Bridgewater lead Miami to victory. A win coupled with a Patriots loss gets Miami (8-8) in the playoffs. Jets are sending QB Zach Wilson to an all-boys boarding school.
Panthers +3.5 over SAINTS – Both teams have been eliminated but the Panthers looked like a completely different team after Steve Wilks took over for Matt Ruhle. The Dennis Allen coaching experiment has not worked out, but New Orleans also needs to fix its QB situation. Broncos have received permission to interview former Saints coach Sean Payton according to publishes reports. Unless he wants to run it back in the Big Easy, where he’s a walking deity.
+STEELERS -2.5 over Browns – In another homage to Mike Tomlin’s coaching, the Steelers (8-8) get in with a win and losses (or ties) by the Dolphins and Patriots. Steelers also get in with a tie and losses by Miami and New England. But Pitt loses the tiebreakers against either of those AFC foes if either wins and the Steelers win. All play in 1:00 p.m. games. Jadaveon Clowney will not play after talking stupid about fellow DE Myles Garrett.
+BENGALS -9 over Ravens – The Bengals were the “other” team involved in the Monday Night Football game in which Hamlin was critically injured. Again, no telling how they will respond. WR Tee Higgins, whose helmet crashed into Hamlin’s chest, was especially shaken. If the Bengals win and the Bills lose, Cincy gets the No.2 seed in the AFC. Both are 1 p.m. kickoffs. QB and agent Lamar Jackson is out.
BRONCOS -3 over Chargers – Red alert game. By the time this game kicks off, the Chargers will know the outcome of the Bengals-Ravens game. A Cincy win means the Chargers get the No.5, regardless of the outcome of this game. We think Cincy wins that game easily and coach Brandon Staley starts scratching starters like a 12-year-old who rolled in Poison Ivy.
+EAGLES +14.5 over Giants – Yellow alert game. An Eagles win clinches the NFC East and the No.1 seed. The Giants, surprisingly, made the playoffs after a 4-13 season. They are locked in as the No.6 seed and coach Brian Daboll has acknowledged he will rest key personnel. Jalen Hurts returns for the Eagles. He might need a game to get back in the groove. Doesn’t matter. Are there enough Philly Specials to go around?
The Loser is taking with Eagles moneyline and Hurts to score a touchdown, meaning Philly has to win, regardless of score, and Hurts has to score a TD, rushing or passing. We got +110 at BetMGM and put down $50 for a $105 payday, meaning we’d net $55.
49ERS -14.5 over Cardinals – San Fran coach Kyle Shanahan said he would not rest starters. Uh-huh. The Loser will swear off women, booze and medically-prescribed marijuana.
Yes, the 49ers can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win and a Philly loss. Show of hands (we will not vote 15 times): Who thinks the Eagles are going to lose to the Giants practice squad? So why take the Niners and give all those points? Anyone see Arizona play lately? The Cardinals haven’t won since mid-November.
SEAHAWKS -6 over Rams – Seattle must win and hope the Lions upset the Packers in the Sunday Night Prime Time game. Ugh. Seattle winning is favorable unless the Rams play battering Rams with Cam Akers and the Seahawks frail run defense caves again.
COMMANDERS +7 over Cowboys – The Commanders can salvage their season with a win in this rivalry. The Cowboys need a win, and an Eagles loss against the Giants scout team to win the NFC East. They could get the No.1 seed with a win and losses by the Eagles and 49ers.
Since we’ve ventured into Fantasy Land, The Loser would like a date with Emily Ratajkowski who bemoans that men can’t handle strong women. The Loser can handle such women, but the strongest woman he knows is his magnificent gal, Nicole, who is so strong she will kick his ass upon reading this. Good luck, Emily.
$$ PACKERS -5 over Lions – RED ALERT GAME! Speaking of fantasies, kudos to Lions QB Jared Goff for his impending marriage to another S.I. Swimsuit model – Christian Harper. Wonders never cease.
But we digress. Win and the 8-8 Packers, once left on the banks of the Fox River, are in. Aaron Rodgers refuses to go away. His, “I’m the deepest thinker in the NFL,” routine is exhausting. But the opponent on this night is the Lions, led by Goff, he of the impressive stats but missing clutch factor. He can change all this in one game. The Lions need a win and a Seahawks loss. The Seattle game will be over before this Sunday Night Prime Time game kicks off. Detroit could be a shell of itself if Seattle wins.
Saturday: 1-1; Best Bets: 0-1
Last Week: 5-10; Best Bets: 0-3
Overall: 115-112-5; +Best bets: 25-22.
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$$, Caution Game: Playoff scenario make this a dangerous play.