Ryan Tannehill, I envy you.
For so long, we’ve had to bear the cross of quarterback discourse. It returns each year like bugs in the springtime, but we know it never truly leaves. It’s as inevitable as tomorrow’s sunrise and as bleak as the night that will precede it. The Canton-bound veterans hear it, as do the superstars looking to take their place. The young quarterbacks can’t seem to escape it. Everyone in between gets praised and scrutinized, debated and mocked.
Through seven weeks, the Tennessee Titans quarterback has avoided the poison discourse. He, for all intents and purposes, has done what no other quarterback has. He’s done the impossible.
Hiding In Plain Sight
Tannehill isn’t hiding on some under-the-radar team nor coasting behind an elder passer. His presence in the Sunday afternoon window is a weekly lock and he’s playing meaningful football. The first-place Titans are a mid-Autumn hot streak away from winning the AFC South and hosting a playoff game.
Tannehill’s home under center is fortified from the discourse.
His first line of defense is a military-grade weapon named Derrick Henry. No quarterback is protected by his backfield wingman than Tannehill. Henry has faced at least eight men in the box on 31.34% of his rushes, the highest of any Week 1 starter. He gives Tennessee the ability to run zone read at the goal line or simply power through, and the results have led to an elite red zone offense. Henry is one of the few backs the entire league game plans around, and the media follows suit. This is Henry’s offense, for better or worse.
Additionally, Tannehill is shielded by the fact that the discourse has already encompassed him. Since moving to Tennessee, he’s seen a career resurgence based around play action passes—the corner threes of football. As he rocketed up the Expected Points Added (EPA) charts, the nerds nearly crowned him king. Those hanging onto the memories of his largely fruitless Dolphins tenure were not happy to oblige.
Nevertheless, debates of just how good Tannehill was remained a mainstay on social media. He’s risen as high as a mortal can go, just behind the Patrick Mahomes-like passers. But was he ever really that good? Tannehill’s rise through the shredder of discourse has led us to our current view of system quarterbacks. It’s one that’s currently being challenged by the next generation of scramble artists, but that’s a conversation for another day. Regardless, we’ve already talked extensively about Tannehill in the past. The public has seemed to move on to more interesting quarterbacks.
Epitomizing Average
Of course, Tannehill’s elusiveness must be attributed to his stubbornly average play. The following flurry of stats isn’t meant to teach us much or illustrate anything other than the idea that Tannehill is incredibly average.
His EPA/Play ranks 18th of 36 qualified quarterbacks through the league’s first seven weeks. His 1.9 Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) is 11th. A composite of those two metrics, a solid predictive measure of QB play, has him as the 17th best quarterback. He’s 15th in success rate.
Tannehill is 16th in completion percentage, 14th in TD%, 20th in INT%, 17th in Average Net Yards Per Attempt, and 12th in Yards per Attempt.
His dedication to the bit of mediocrity is amazing! He’s allergic to the top and bottom 10 of seemingly every statistic. Whether you’re a data nerd or a gridiron traditionalist, the numbers agree with you!
It’s admirable, and it’s his biggest asset in avoiding our collective consciousness. Good for you, Mr. Tannehill. Keep doing your half-decent thing.
What do we do with this information?
Frankly, not much.
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Tannehill is a blessing and a curse: a boon to a team’s low win total and a hard cap on how far that team can go. He seems on track to lead Tennessee to a 9 or 10-win season. From there, I suppose anything can happen.
The Titans are okay, soon-to-be division winners largely due to the South being devoid of competent football. In fact, I’m surprised to see FanDuel only has them at -150 to win it. After, the Henry offense will flame out come January thanks to their middling passing attack, opening the door for the next quarterback conversation in Nashville: Malik Willis.
For now, though, the Willis whispers are muted. Until Tannehill gives them a reason not to, he’ll continue starting games under center for the Titans. And he’ll be average, because that’s precisely what he is.