Drafting and developing a franchise quarterback is like ordering a package from a sketchy online shop.
You’re very excited about the prospects of your purchase—it could be life changing. Still, the fear of wasting money and anticipation on a disappointing delivery looms overhead. Think of the opportunity cost! Ordering from the wrong site means missing out on a superior product, but such is life. We confirm our orders, and pray to a higher power that those taking care of our packages can do their job adequately.
For Zach Wilson and the New York Jets, everyone knew the delivery process was a multi-year endeavor. Still, impatience is rampant in the National Football League, and the fear of missing out on the next Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Justin Herbert can accelerate plans to the point of foil. Wilson likely has another 18 months as the quarterback of the Jets, but it’s clear the clock is ticking.
Wilson entered the league as a flashy playmaker who was creative and athletic enough to extend plays and create explosive ones. The drawback—an inexperienced, rough around the edges game that needed professional reps before signs of competency could be found.
Those early reps were indeed ugly. It’ll take a while for his career numbers to get back on track. The statistical hole he dug himself in gave doubt to whether or not his perceived incompetence was not insurmountable. If Wilson was going to become the savior of this damned franchise, processing within structure was the big hurdle he’d need to clear.
Week 5’s 40-17 win over the rival Miami Dolphins gave us some insight into how that has come along.
A Small Bar to Clear
I’d like to start with New York’s first pass play of the game. It’s nothing too impressive, just a mere swing route to Michael Carter.
Wilson checks the boxes here. Pre-snap, he can see that Miami is beat by alignment. As long as the corner is carried vertically and Andrew Van Ginkel is occupied, the running back will most be open. Elandon Roberts, the rightmost off-ball linebacker, takes steps back instead of directly attacking the flat. With the rest of the play according to plan, Wilson quickly identifies that Carter will be open and wastes no time delivering the football.
Most importantly, the ball is on-time, accurate, and gives Carter room to scurry after the catch. Last year, Wilson made a habit of botching these relatively easy throws. The game was moving far too fast for Wilson to proficiently process last year, and speeding up his mental process and mechanics led to some horrible reads and inexcusable misses. It is impossible to build around a quarterback who cannot consistently hit his layups.
A second throw to the flat showcases another “connecting the dots” moment for Wilson. This isn’t to say that he couldn’t do this as a rookie. But it’s nice to see this process quicken and be carried out both effectively and consistently.
Late in the game, Wilson had the opportunity to make a similar throw to a playmaker out of the backfield. Here, it’s a pretty standard Cover 1 blitz and Wilson wagers that the pressure is coming from the left side—it’s elementary, but he executes. His pre-snap assumptions are correct and Breece Hall beats the linebacker with his flat route.
Wilson takes his one-step drop and fires. There’s no wasted time. He confirms his look as he receives the snap and reacts, culminating in a big play from Hall. It’s important that he continues to operate quicker than the blitz he’s facing. We can see he’s more confident now; he’s not double-clutching, double-checking, or trying to make an unnecessary play.
Again, these are baby reads. If he were to miss these, he’d be deserving a damning column, rather than an optimistic one. He didn’t though. We may not know what Wilson is yet, but seeing plays like this means we can rule out what he isn’t. We couldn’t do that a year ago.
Passing and Progressing from the Pocket
One thing that has become clear about Mike LaFleur’s offense is that it’s not going to attack vertically akin to Kansas City and Buffalo. That’s okay, at least for now. Stretching the field in New York is a combined effort. Wilson must make plays out of structure, set his targets up for success after the catch, and be precise in his intermediate attempts. These things keep the threat of the big play alive and keep the Jets ahead of the chains.
An example of that is seen above, where Wilson had one of his best throws of the day from a fundamentals standpoint.
The picture doesn’t change after the snap, so his eyes are in the right place. He calmly executes the playfake, finishes his drop, and delivers. The two most important aspects of the play are his clean, fluid mechanics and the punctual throw. Wilson throws this ball as the receiver is breaking, optimizing separation and ensuring the sideline doesn’t become an issue. Additionally, these aren’t the ducks he was throwing early last season, where open receivers were rendered irrelevant by opportunistic defenders seeking poorly thrown balls.
Playing within the structure of the offense, and doing so effectively, is how Wilson becomes a player much more emblematic of his ceiling. We know he can win out of structure, but relying on that to put points on the board is how you end up in the bottom left corner of every graph posted from the analytics nerds.
Sometimes, playing within structure on offense means attacking a defense caught red-handed. Wilson takes advantage of a missed assignment here for a huge gain. His eyes follow the flow of the linebackers from the play action. Once it becomes clear a corner is plastered onto Corey Davis, both his upper and lower body turn to his second read. Hall is wide open and Wilson is in position to attack immediately. The pass was perfectly executed and allowed Hall to do what he does best: make plays in the open field.
Side note: Awesome play design from LaFleur here. He called a good game.
Risk Management in the Red Zone
These aren’t plays that will have you bragging to your buddies about Wilson’s processing prowess, intangibles, or ranking as a passer. They are merely the rings of a tree, giving us insight into the development and maturity of the quarterback. Wilson can only be compared to the quarterback of yesterday and yesteryear.
Speaking of maturity…there’s a Wilson joke I’ll choose not to include. Still, New York can coddle their quarterback at times. The Jets run the ball more than their peers in the red zone. Is it a lack of trust? A method of risk aversion? Confidence in the offensive line? If it is the former, I think Wilson gained some with his play on Sunday.
Third downs in the red zone can be tricky. Scoring six is twice as nice as scoring three, but a turnover in any capacity is a multiplier of zero. Wilson was asked to manage risks on the fly.
On this one, Miami out-executes New York pretty convincingly across the board. Subsequently, Wilson is forced to move through his progressions with the threat of a third down sack growing greater by the millisecond.
He showcases a nifty pocket maneuver to evade the impending doom of a lineman and promptly sails the ball through the back of the end zone. There was a window to throw into here. Perhaps he should’ve taken advantage of it. A successful throw here lands him on Sports Center, a handful of other outcomes lands him on a meme page. This is textbook “if my guy can’t get it, nobody can” passing. He progresses through his reads, avoids pressure, and makes a safe, but not detrimental, decision in the red zone.
Folks, Wilson is checking the boxes and building good habits. Expect it to show up elsewhere on the field.
Wilson in Week 6
So, Wilson is officially meeting the bar set for him as a non-point shaving passer in the NFL. Should we care?
Until further notice, he’s still an unknown product. Is he an unknown product that three quarters of the league would prefer not to start? Sure, but that’s part of the process.
Wilson was so bad last year that sophomore signs of life are almost as surprising as they are exciting. These rudimentary plays from Sunday were big in the win and in our perception of him as a passer. Their baby boy is growing.
I wish I had the foresight to let you know whether or not Wilson will show up on Sunday. Given the whole “quarterback of the Jets thing,” maybe the New York faithful can expect a rout. Maybe he’s developing faster than we imagined, and a talented Green Bay Packers secondary is about to be dismantled.
Whatever the case ends up being, don’t let it distract you from the progress the BYU product has made.
The game is finally slowing down for Wilson, and he gives them a better chance to win now than he did a few short weeks ago.