If you ever watched Spongebob before, you’d know the constant pain of losing. What it’s like to come so close and fail at the ultimate goal.
For years, the Buffalo Bills played the role of Plankton, constantly wanting the Krabby Patty secret formula, but to no avail. When Tom Brady left the Patriots, it was supposed to be their time to run the AFC. But then came Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Second fiddle, yet again.
Star receiver Stefon Diggs watched on the field in Kansas City after a heartbreaking loss in the AFC Championship game two years ago as the Chiefs celebrated a trip to the Super Bowl. His reasoning? He wanted to witness what it would feel like. But one year later, Diggs suffered a familiar fate. Losing in January, in Kansas City.
The Bills are no different than those old wind up toys people used to play with. Just when you think they are finally heading in the right direction, boom, there’s the wall again. With the team once again being considered among the NFL’s best, it begs the question, can 2022 be the year they finally get over the hump?
It’s Super Bowl or bust for Buffalo
It might sound insane to say that the Bills have to cash in this year, but they do. Sports are a great example of just how necessary it is to strike while the iron is hot. Windows don’t last forever, injuries happen, and teams break up.
That’s just reality. One the Bills will have to meet head on in 2022.
“But they’ll be back.”
Sure, go tell that to the 2017 Yankees, 2012 Thunder, or the 2015 Panthers and see where that gets you.
Luckily for the Bills, they should continue to have a dynamic offense, after ranking fifth in yards per game. Of course, there might be some cause for concern after offensive coordinator Brian Daboll finally got a head coaching job, ending up in New Jersey with the Giants.
However, Daboll’s former team ranked top ten in points per game, third down conversion rate, and yards per play. Can new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey keep quarterback Josh Allen playing at an MVP level? Can the newly paid tight end Dawson Knox continue to build off a breakout year?
So many questions, so little answers.
On the defensive side of the ball, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier returns to a unit that was ranked the best in the league last season.
However, if Buffalo wants to be known as Super Bowl Champions and not the home of the Wild Wings, then they better start taking the competition seriously. They struggled in one score games, en route to an 11-6 record. Now it was still good enough to win the AFC East, as if that’s a challenge nowadays, but ultimately home field advantage was necessary. Remember that brutal 9-6 loss at the hands of the Jaguars’ Josh Allen? Yeah it got ugly at times.
The Bills through the betting lens
There’s a legitimate chance the Bills fall short once again. One reason? Everyone on the face of the Earth and maybe even Mars, sponsored by Elon Musk and Tesla, has decided they will take home the Lombardi in February (+600 on FanDuel).
As anyone who bets often knows, the house always wins and it’s never good for everyone to be on the same side.
Now I’m not directly saying to fade the Bills, but it might be wise to limit your exposure here. Is saying, “too many people like this team,” a good argument toward fading them? No, but it’s the best option we have and one that has proven time and time again to be a relatively good strategy.
Allen is still an MVP candidate, listed at +700 on FanDuel, and since this is a narrative award for the regular season, it just makes sense. Consider that he finished second in MVP voting just two years ago and plays for the team many consider to be the best. That alone might make Allen, in the eyes of the voters, “due.”
Even if he doesn’t receive the league award, he’s still by far the Bills best asset, but unfortunately we couldn’t take the free cash on Team MVP since no sportsbook wants to offer us that moneymaker.
So instead we turn our attention to season long props, where research has proven that even blindly betting the under is a profitable approach. Despite totaling over 1,000 yards receiving in four straight years, Stefon Diggs is listed at 1,225.5 on Caesar’s. The under is -115 and feels like solid value. Diggs broke out with the Bills in 2020, hauling in 127 passes for 1,535 yards on 166 targets. In 2021, he had 164 targets, but managed only 103 catches for 1,225 yards.
So you’re telling me that the Bills incredible offense would have to be potentially even better for Diggs to go over the total? The line, like most Colorado residents or the rent in New York City, is just too high, so bet the under. It may not be the most exciting, but we are making money, not playing with fun coupons.
On defense, the team will look to maintain its top ranked unit from the year before, thanks to star safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Frazier and head coach Sean McDermott will rely heavily on those two considering the banged up secondary that is notably missing Tre’Davious White for at least the first four games. If you are a Bills believer it might be worth a shot at +1000 on BetRivers for the team to lead the league in defensive interceptions. Although in my mind, early in the year at least, they might play more coverage to cover up cornerback deficiencies, which may actually lead to more sacks defensively. However, it’s not enough to recommend the +1000 price tag on FanDuel to lead the lead in sacks.
Over in the rookie market, we’ll look in the direction of running back James Cook. He adds a pass catching element that the Buffalo backfield does not currently have. Just his presence alone is enough for us to lock in Devin Singletary’s under 750.5 rushing yard total on DraftKings. Keep an eye on him to have a bigger role as the season rolls along.
BetBasics Best Bet
Now for the moment you’ve all been waiting for. Our BetBasics Best Bet. This might not be a popular pick, but we will lock in the under 11.5 win total on DraftKings for a very nice +120. Hear me out.
We already saw last season that this Bills team does not always take their competition seriously. They lost to the Jaguars and didn’t score a touchdown, which is about all the evidence needed. There’s an argument to be made that they have at least six lose-able games. It’s hard to win 12 games in the NFL as this team breaks in a new play caller and will certainly have to deal with a few injuries along the way. They have the 12th most difficult schedule in the league. I’d say for +120, this is a great bet.
The Bills are Super Bowl favorites for a reason. They have a good organization, coaching staff, and a roster with one of the best players in the sport at quarterback. They deserve to be favored, but it doesn’t mean that’s where the value lies.
They might and very well could win the big game in February, but for now let’s fade the hype. It’s kind of like how everyone expects Joey Chestnut to beat the hot dog eating record every year now. The expectations are so extreme that it would take a perfect season to achieve them.
Does perfection sound likely to you? Enjoy the 2022 Buffalo Bills for what they are. A very good team that might become champions, but they are a team that has no margin for error, which is exactly where our profit opportunity lies. Until proven otherwise, let’s hold off on buying stock in folding table companies.