Perhaps Steven Spielberg’s greatest film is one we didn’t know he directed. The 2021 Cincinnati Bengals.
Sure, much has been made about the storybook season on the Rams side because they have Hollywood’s backing. What we didn’t know is that one of the most famous directors in history is straight out of Cincinnati, Ohio.
We have to give the great filmmaker credit though. Instead of the fairytale ending, he went for something that would rip our hearts out, making us desperate to see the sequel.
The story of the 2021 Bengals has been written, but they were a team that snuck up on opponents, proving to be better than the experts thought. The 2022 Bengals won’t have that luxury.
They will be in a place no bengal tiger has been before. The hunted, not the hunter.
The Bengals through the betting lens
When teams make magical runs, the best thing to ponder is, can they do it again? Leicester City couldn’t after their magical run in the English Premier League back in the 2015-16 season, but at least they won. The Jaguars haven’t made the playoffs since losing in the 2017 AFC Championship Game. The Arizona Cardinals haven’t made the Super Bowl since the heartbreaking loss they suffered in 2008.
Point is, if you don’t win the first time around, there may not be a next time.
The Bengals are here. They made it and lost, can they finish the job? If I were a betting man, which I am, my answer is going to be, “no.”
Everything went right for them last year, playing in a wide open conference. Well, this year they won’t have that luxury. I’m not one to discount quarterback Joe Burrow’s talent, but this is a tall task. However, if they pick up right where they left off and have a great regular season, then you might want to have some action on Burrow’s MVP odds, listed at +1200 on DraftKings.
Plus, Burrow’s success is directly correlated to star receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s success as well. The two go better together than peanut butter and jelly. There’s a real chance that Chase continues to build off an incredible rookie campaign by leading the league in receiving yards (+1200 on Caesar’s) and receiving touchdowns (+900 on FanDuel).
Remember last season when all everyone could focus on was the drop problems Chase was having? Yeah that was fun. Let that be more proof to never take the preseason too seriously.
There could be some value in Cincinnati’s AFC North odds (+175 on BetMGM), which place them behind the Ravens who have been proven to be injury prone. It’s a two horse race in that division and when in doubt, take the underdog between the two. Either way, I’m not touching that and you are about to find out why.
BetBasics Best Bet
From a best bet standpoint, I don’t believe the Bengals will be as good in 2022. They are young and fun, but have the third toughest schedule on paper in the league. Now that’s on paper and the games are played on the field, but it has been demonstrated time and time again just how hard it is to recover from a Super Bowl loss.
So here we go. Under 9.5 wins on Caesar’s. +115.
Bengals miss the playoffs, +125 on Pointsbet.
It’s not a popular pick, but I really want nothing to do with the potential Super Bowl hangover here. The overwhelming theme in my AFC kickoff stories are to bet the under, and bet a lot of them. The AFC is going to be incredible this year with so many good teams, meaning it’s only natural that many won’t be able to meet the sportsbooks expectations. Surely some of them will go over their win total, but most of them probably won’t.
In the business we call that profit.
It was a great run last year, one that won’t be forgotten for a long time. However, if there’s one thing that is usually true about movies, the sequel is never as good as the original.