Another week, another sweat free bet for Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. We are now officially into fall, meaning the summer and time for sweating is now completely gone for the foreseeable future.
Consider that to be good news as kickoff approaches, because this one is a winner. Let’s get right into it.
Bengals First Half -2.5 (-110)
The Dolphins might be the better team, but they are not the most rested team in this game. We must also factor in travel, coming from a hot and humid Miami to Cincinnati, where the temperatures are expected to drop into the 50s by game time. That’s a lot for Mike McDaniel’s team to adjust to in just one half of play. The Dolphins defense was on the field for 90 plays in Sunday’s game against Buffalo, totaling over 40 minutes of action.
Cincinnati’s offense, on the other hand, found their rhythm in New Jersey against the Jets. We cannot forget that it’s been the Bengals defense which has carried them to start the season. With a whiteout tonight coupled with the debut of those incredible white helmets, expect a raucous Cincinnati crowd to propel their team to win the first half by at least a field goal.
Joe Mixon OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
For Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense to continue its newfound success in Week 4, they’ll have to deal with a Miami defense that loves to blitz. They send the pressure more than most, ranking in the top ten in the league, thanks to the aggressive play calling of defensive coordinator Josh Boyer. By now, everyone on earth has talked about how Burrow gets sacked constantly, giving bettors a key counter play here in the props market.
Getting the ball out quick and into space means Joe Mixon should have a nice workload in the passing game. Conventional wisdom might suggest that Mixon remains in as a blocker, but he’ll need to be a checkdown option, especially early, to keep the Miami defense off balance. Dating back to last season, Mixon has gone over this line in four of his last five regular season games, giving us an 80% success rate. Not bad. If you expand that search to the four games in the playoffs last year, he went over in three of those four. Expect Mixon to have a big role tonight.
Ja’Marr Chase any time TD scorer (+100)
Mixon could march the Bengals offense down the field, but it’ll be the second year star receiver Ja’Marr Chase that gets across the goal line. Chase has found paydirt in 15 of 20 regular season contests and gets to face off against a banged up Dolphins secondary. Taking Tee Higgins to score instead was a real consideration, but his injury concerns are an issue here. Due to that, Higgins is only receiving 16.7% of red zone targets, while Chase is getting the ball thrown his way over 44% of the time in the same situations. Considering how often he gets to “Griddy” in the end zone, getting even odds here is an absolute gift.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Even if you’ve been living under a rock for the last few days, you are probably aware that Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa are prepared to try and exploit Bengals cornerback Eli Apple in the passing game. As a quick refresher, Apple and Hill made it clear in the AFC Championship Game that they do not like each other, with Hill even saying that he “owes” Apple after the way that game ended. However, Hill’s line is already up to 75.5 receiving yards, a number he’s cleared in only two of his last five regular season games. For fairness sake, those two were both with the Dolphins this season.
The Bengals defense won’t make it easy though, and the belief is that there is value on Jaylen Waddle instead. He has surpassed this number in every game this season, and doesn’t have the added pressure of delivering against a hated rival. While the attention is solely on Hill, Waddle can roam freely and might even break off a big play to surpass the total fairly quickly.
Parlay +1010
For anyone located in the New York/New Jersey metropolitan area, you might be aware of a radio station called, “1010 WINS.” In this case, that’s fairly poetic for this beautiful parlay that has been cooked up for tonight. We’ve been close on these Thursday Night Football parlays this season, and now that Amazon Prime has worked out the issues with their broadcast, it’s only fair to assume we are in prime position to cash in tonight as well.
As always, do not forget to opt into this promotion on FanDuel for terms and conditions, plus your max wager amount. Happy betting and remember to play responsibly.