Week 1 has come and gone, delivering 16 games of chaos, incompetency, and incredible talents. For months we’ve waited for our superstars to return, finally giving meaning to our Sundays. Simply put, they lived up to the task. How did the game’s brightest stars change their MVP odds?
The Favorites
While it is far too early to call this a two-man race, most sportsbooks found themselves choosing between two elite quarterbacks as their preseason favorite to win MVP. Depending on the book, Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes headlined the futures section.
It’s hard not to agree. Mahomes is probably the best quarterback in the league and has become synonymous with massive production. Allen leads a Super Bowl-favorite Buffalo Bills squad and has the arm talent and mobility to do the impossible on any given play.
They both showed out on Week 1.
Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs embarrassed the Arizona Cardinals, 44-21. In the onslaught, Mahomes was incredibly efficient, posting a 71.7% success rate. He went 30/39 for 360 yards and five touchdowns. His average odds have improved from +850 to +625 after one week of action. If you’re keen on the Chiefs megastar taking home another MVP, make sure you choose a book that lists him behind Allen, like DraftKings at +750.
Allen had himself a day, too, shocking the Rams on their own turf. He gained 297 yards through the air and scored three times, compared to just five incompletions. On the ground, he added 56 yards and a touchdown. Allen and the Bills looked impossible to defend, aside from two interceptions that weren’t truly Allen’s fault. He remains the favorite at DraftKings with +500 odds.
The Risers and Fallers
A couple of mobile quarterbacks helped their MVP stock on Sunday. Lamar Jackson was one of my favorite future bets before the season began. On DraftKings, his line had moved from +2000 to +1600. He helped dominate a struggling Jets team and looked very good as a passer, which shouldn’t surprise anyone that has seen him play.
Additionally, Jalen Hurts had himself a nice day at the offense, leading his Philadelphia Eagles to a 38-35 win. The Eagles have emerged as favorites to win the NFC East, giving Hurts a narrative path to the award. He too has seen his odds change for the better, from +2000 to +1600. Other sportsbooks, however, gave him longer odds to start the season.
On the other hand, no big name quarterback had a worse stretch of play than Joe Burrow. His five turnovers put the Cincinnati Bengals behind the 8-ball, and they would ultimately fall short in overtime. His -0.156 EPA/Play ranked 27th among quarterbacks in Week 1, and it may prove to be insurmountable. The drop from +1200 to +1400 may not be too significant, but he won’t be fielding my cash anytime soon.
Struggles also hit Aaron Rodgers square in the mouth. Sunday’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings. He looked lost without Davante Adams and the offense struggled to get off the ground. Opening day struggles are no stranger to Rodgers, so he’ll likely bounce back, but I’m not buying him as an MVP candidate. To win three MVP awards in a row while so many other talented quarterbacks share the landscape would be an incredible accomplishment. Don’t buy his +1200 odds.
The Dark Horse
No sleeper has improved their MVP odds as much as Kirk Cousins. The blowout win sent a message to the NFC North that they’re going to compete for the division and he helped Justin Jefferson annihilate Green Bay. From +5000 to +3000, Cousins is on the rise and his fit in Kevin O’Connell’s offense may push him over the edge into true MVP contention.